lunes, marzo 17, 2008

Customer Reliability and System Reliability

Demand Integration is based on the fact that reliability has two sides: “On one side, system crashes are mitigated by a least cost mix of supply and demand risk management tools that may be applied in time and space. On the other, DR is the key to the segmentation of customers supply security (a kind of insurance).”

Customer Reliability and System Reliability

By José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D.
Systemic Consultant: Electricity

First posted in the GMH Blog, on March 17th, 2008.

Copyright © 2008 José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio. All rights reserved. No part of this article may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, without written permission from José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio. This article is an unedited, an uncorrected, draft material of The EWPC Textbook. Please write to javs@ieee.org to contact the author for any kind of engagement.

Demand Response came to public awareness when several large and very costly system blackouts disrupted the U.S., Italy, and other industrialized countries. Those countries have a need for a synchronized power system market architecture and design that minimizes the likelihood of domino like cascading failures. The essential requirements of Ultraquality Transportation and Demand Integration to power system planning, operations and control are key ingredients for significantly reducing blackout disruptive powers, which are not addressed by present utility centered paradigms and IMEUC as shown in Power Markets Essential Requirements and Power Markets Essential Requirements - II, which is summarized by the paragraph:

Mission accomplished!!! [These] are comments received and responded under the article Power Markets Essential Requirements. Readers will find that the two assertions questioned, are certainly true: IMEUC has NO Ultraquality, and NO Demand Integration to power system planning, operation and control. Ultraquality is a system characteristic. The incentive system is spelled out clearly. While IMEUC is technology dependent, EWPC is technology neutral. A standard meter is needed for 2GR to develop their business model innovations. Nothing else is needed to reconfirm the winner in the market vs. market competition, this time based on the essential requirements: Retail Competition with Active Demand and Ultraquality Transportation.

Under EWPC the “Level of [customer] Reliability [is, not just should be,] simply a market factor purchased as needed just like Level of Power etc.” In my [seminal], and only article on EnergyPulse, An Alternative Business Case for Demand Response, I stated: “The business case of Demand Response (DR) is enhanced under free markets, innovation, and probabilistic (risk) mindsets. DR is poised to be the demand side risk management tool to complement the traditional "LOLP" supply side risk management tool. There are two sides on the DR coin. On one side, system crashes are mitigated by a least cost mix of supply and demand risk management tools that may be applied in time and space. On the other, DR is the key to the segmentation of customers supply security (a kind of insurance). Because of its fine grain nature, DR can help mitigate delays (intended or not) of lumpy investments in generation, transmission, and distribution.”

Transportation Ultraquality, a MUST that IMEUC lack, includes a process to perform system adequacy (developing long run systemic risk management) and system security (executing short run systemic risk management) by developing/executing “a least cost mix of supply and demand risk management tools that may be applied in time and space” to implement Demand Integration to power system planning, operation and control.

Reference and context: A Fresh Approach to Managing Peak Demand, by Gary Paul, VP, Outsourcing Business Development, Capgemini



Well Beyond Low Reserves Managing

NONE of today’s utilities should be allowed to take as inevitable a bare bones approach to increase efficiency, introducing a high leverage shake-up to the industry. Unlike traditional utilities, competitive Second Generation Retailers will have “end-to-end responsibility and be willing to have a stake in delivering results… ” to end-customers.

Well Beyond Low Reserves Managing

By José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D.
Systemic Consultant: Electricity

First posted in the GMH Blog, on March 17th, 2008.

Copyright © 2008 José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio. All rights reserved. No part of this article may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, without written permission from José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio. This article is an unedited, an uncorrected, draft material of The EWPC Textbook. Please write to javs@ieee.org to contact the author for any kind of engagement.

Under EWPC, NONE of the “… utilities will … take a bare bones approach…” that Capgemini sees as inevitable. Those utilities, which like dogs are unable to learn new tricks, insist in keeping a “bares bone” obsolete non competitive business model of winning rate cases to the regulator. That is an unnecessary risk taken by governments and the power industry that is solved under competition by the EWPC market architecture and design paradigm shift, under a NO jurisdiction left behind.

EWPC Retail Competition, to be done by Second Generation Retailers - 2GRs, involve business model innovations, which go well beyond managing peak demand or low generation, that reduces reserves, anytime, anywhere, by introducing everywhere a high leverage shake-up. For example, a High Leverage Shake-Up in California (please hit the link here and elsewhere to get to the corresponding article) is needed to repair the immense damage done to the worldwide power industry with the The BIG California LIE. The shake-up, however, can be initiated in wherever jurisdiction that wants to take the leadership that California has been unable to show so far.

In the article “COMPETITION RULES! TALK AMONGST YOURSELVES... ,” Martin Rosenberg quotes” four articulate CEOs”:

WE FACE HUGE, COMPLEX GLOBAL ENERGY CHALLENGES. COMPETITION UNLEASHES ALL THE POSSIBILITIES TO HELP SOLVE THESE CHALLENGES FOR OUR CUSTOMERS.

Jim Burke, CEO, TXU Energy

CUSTOMER FIRES ENERGY COMPANY.

Lois Hedge-Peth, COO, Direct Energy

COMPETITION DRIVES INNOVATION AND LOWER PRICES IN BOTH WHOLESALE AND RETAIL ENERGY MARKETS. PERVASIVE COMPETITION WILL ALLOW OUR INDUSTRY TO EFFECTIVELY ADDRESS THE MAJOR ISSUES INCLUDING CLIMATE CHANGE, NEED FOR NEW GENERATION INVESTMENTS AND GRID INVESTMENTS.

Michael Kagan, President, Constellation NewEnergy

THE POWER INDUSTRY HAS BY THE THE LOWEST CAPACITY UTILITIZATION RATE AMONG CAPITAL-INTENSIVE BUSINESSES, AND ONLY COMPETITIVE RETAIL MARKETS CAN END MORE THAN A CENTURY OF INEFFICIENCY.

Mark Jacobs, CEO, Reliant Energy

Capgemini defines “the electrical energy market” as that market that includes “… generators, system operators, transmission and distribution service providers, retailers, energy service companies, consumers, regulators and legislators…”

In response to another Capgemini article (see The Smart Grid Transportation Utility), I concluded that “Dramatic and radical change is coming to the electric utility industry as the utility itself evolves to the smart transportation grid, under a complete rethinking of the electric industry. Front and back office generation and customer facing activities become free market activities under prudential regulations.”

The system operators and the transmission and distribution service providers become the integrated (T&D) transportation utility under a compact with a responsibility of transport, instead of a responsibility to serve, in exchange for a regulated price control tolls payment. The “ability to earn a return on their investments in” the transportation infrastructure under traditional regulation is without any doubt. As “[T]he current state of the electrical infrastructure in North America is not sustainable…,” the paradigm shift to EWPC will enable a sustainable smart grid transportation utility electrical infrastructure in America and the rest of the world.

Under EWPC, the investments necessary for Demand Integration (no just smart metering) will be coordinated by Second Generation Retailers. The broader set of benefits of aggregating retail demand to produce wholesale demand, refining grid planning, and improving grid monitoring and control, are part of the Demand Integration processes to power system planning, operation and control.

Instead of an artificial decoupling of the utility grid and the utility enterprise, like that under structural separation of the grid and the enterprise that lead to a Complex and Ugly System (see The Good, the Bad and the Ugly), real decoupling is produced by having distribution integrated with transmission in the transportation utility compact leading to the Good and Simple System.

As they take on today’s utilities enterprise activities on a competitive basis, 2GRs integrate the functions of retailers, load serving entities, and aggregators, increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of the whole system. Unlike utilities, competitive 2GRs will have “end-to-end responsibility and be willing to have a stake in delivering results… ” to end-customers. So, paraphrasing the author, “… [2GRs will] look beyond the technology into the opportunities and incentives the technology unlocks. Indeed, [2Grs will] take a more comprehensive view of smart metering. More important than the technology itself is the role it plays in enabling system operators, 2GRs and customers to … improve market efficiency.” 2GRs “should seek out partners who will work collaboratively with them to ensure the success…” of their business models.

Reference and context: A Fresh Approach to Managing Peak Demand, by Gary Paul, VP, Outsourcing Business Development, Capgemini


The Good, the Bad and the Ugly II

This follows up the comments on the EWPC article The Good, the Bad and the Ugly. I certainly agree with Warren Causey that the idea of demand response as a condition of service seems to be emerging. EWPC is about ending the rampant value destruction to generate large value creation.

Don,

Be a good sport. As you will see below, this is "a fascinating time-period in which to live."

EWPC is no about the left or the right. It’s about ending the rampant value destruction originated in the Old System, the Bad System, and even more the Ugly System. The Good EWPC System is about developing the resources of the demand side for innovation to flourish and generate a lot of value creation in the benefit of ALL stakeholders.

I certainly agree with Warren Causey that the idea on mandatory demand response seems to be emerging. As part of the Sierra Energy Group, his idea is to be taken seriously as he is in close contact with the private sector of the industry. It used to be called earlier in California as “demand response as a condition of service.” I don’t see how that has anything to do with left win. I think it has ALL to do with Law of the Situation: the utilities don’t understand.

This is what Warren Causey also wrote in the post All the issues crux of the matter :

With regard to good ideas dying at the utility/commission staff interfaces, I don’t disagree at all. In fact, I consider that as proof of the argument in my original post, and as both the crux of the issue and the fly in the ointment of Dr. Silverio’s, and other bloggers’, restructuring proposals. My educational training actually is in history and that’s why I consider this a fascinating time-period in which to live.

Over the last couple of generations, the U.S. has become increasingly socialist (regardless of the party in power) and people increasingly expect the government regulate everything and solve every problem. The issue with that is that government bureaucracy (and state-controlled enterprises are extensions of that bureaucracy) is inherently the worst possible way to solve any problem. You can ask the Russians what a long, slow dive into an empty swimming pool feels like. Of course don’t pay to much attention to what they say because now they seem intent on climbing, dazed, back up onto the board and trying it again.

When you introduce government planning into any operation at any level of government (local planning commissions and their interventions into private property are a nightmare) and remove or distort economic incentives, you produce a horse designed by a committee—it looks a lot like a camel. Add politics (most state regulators are elected and national politicians’ raison d’etre is to get elected regardless of the consequences) and the possibility of allowing free markets to work out problems via trial-and-error disappears.

During so-called “deregulation,” not one regulator or one “staff,” which by Mr. Pullin’s description constitutes the bureaucracy, disappeared. Don’t blame the staffs, they’re just doing what bureaucrats do!


The following is taken from the WTO Website:

Virtually all decisions in the WTO are taken by consensus among all member countries and they are ratified by members' parliaments. . . At the heart of the system — known as the multilateral trading system — are the WTO’s agreements, negotiated and signed by a large majority of the world’s trading nations, and ratified in their parliaments. These agreements are the legal ground-rules for international commerce. Essentially, they are contracts, guaranteeing member countries important trade rights. They also bind governments to keep their trade policies within agreed limits to everybody’s benefit.