viernes, marzo 28, 2008

IMEUC False Facts

Based on the article “The Power of False Facts,” readers need to be very aware of that power while reading those False Facts to be able to rate them as false. The following False Facts need to be well understood: 1) IMEUC doesn’t need to satisfy the Ultraquality Transportation requirement. 2) EWPC has a Free Rider Problem; no answers are given in mentioned article. 3) EWPC has no answers to 11 questions. 4) IMEUC operates on the Economic Level.

IMEUC False Facts

By José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D.
Systemic Consultant: Electricity

First posted in the GMH Blog, on March 28th, 2008.

Copyright © 2008 José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio. All rights reserved. No part of this article may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, without written permission from José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio. This article is an unedited, an uncorrected, draft material of The EWPC Textbook. Please write to to contact the author for any kind of engagement.

This article is not written to attack Len Gould, nor his friends, which are very intelligent and important persons. It aims to their opinions, about some False Facts they apparently believe in and are entitled to keep them. Every time Len retracts, as a result of a False Fact becoming evident, he goes on usually with the help from friends.

I have taken a brief article “The Power of False Facts,” from the book Powerful Times (see page 41) by Eamonn Kelly. The source of the article is: Sharon Begley, “People Believe a ‘Fact’ That Fits Their Views Even if it’s Clearly False.” The Wall Street Journal, February 4, 2005. Permissions to reprint this and other quotes in earlier EWPC articles will be considered later on for the publication of the EWPC Book.

“What we remember depends on what we believe…. ‘People build mental models,’ explains Stephan Lewandowsky, a psychology professor at the University of Western Australia, Crowley. ‘By the time they receive a retraction, the original misinformation has already become an integral part of that mental model, or worldview, and disregarding it would leave the worldview a shambles.’ Therefore, he and his colleagues conclude in their paper, ‘People continue to rely on misinformation even if they demonstrably remember and understand a subsequent retraction’…. Even many of those who remember a retraction still rated the original claim as true.”

Readers need to be very careful to the insidious power while reading those False Facts to be able to rate them as false. Since the end of 2005, Len has retracted many times from False Facts that were found out. Now I will restrict myself only to four False Facts under this specific article.

A successful transformation of the power industry needs to be based on three essential requirements that I have uncovered: 1st) Active Demand, 2nd) Retail Competition and 3) Ultraquality Transportation. EWPC has emerged to satisfy all three requirements.

I used to say that the first and second requirements lead to Demand Integration to power system planning, operation and control on the open (retail and wholesale) market value chain. The third requirement leads to the transportation utility under a regulatory compact with a responsibility to transport is also a needed for Demand Integration, as can be seen next.

False Fact #1. IMEUC doesn’t need to satisfy the Ultraquality Transportation requirement. Len writes “Level of Reliability should be simply a market factor purchased as needed just like Level of Power etc.,” to justify the lack of Ultraquality transportation of IMEUC. My response was that ““Demand Integration is based on the fact [the third requirement emerges] that reliability has two sides: ‘On one side, system crashes are mitigated by a least cost mix of supply and demand risk management tools that may be applied in time and space [that is the Ultraquality Transportation requiremen]t. On the other, DR is the key to the segmentation of customers [based on the Retail Competition] supply security (a kind of insurance).’” After that, Bob came to the rescue by changing the subject. Readers should not forget that fact.

False Fact #2: EWPC has a Free Rider Problem; no answers are given in mentioned article. Len wrote “As an example of above. I invite readers to read the blog entry Jose Antonio refers to above, and evaluate in what way it constitutes an answer to my "Free Rider Problem in EWPC" question (NOT), at No Need for Regulated Price Caps - II .” As the next sequence of posts after that showed, it is very clear that the my “assumption ‘the default service will have essentially all the free riders being subsidized by peers.’" was available, right where I said, in the link of just mentioned EWPC article. Once gain, Bob changes the subject. But the lie goes on. He later tries to continue discussing the issue of free riding, but the real issue the False Fact.

False Fact #3: EWPC has no answers to 11 questions. Len writes for the third (not the second) time “My problem with EWPC are myriad eg. it's precisely identical to every existing failed attempt at de-regulation in N. America. And it's promoter flatly refuses to answer any difficult questions about it. Questions which I have posed before, such as:…” I showed a copy of each of the answers, to identify the False Fact that I had answered those questions earlier. Len takes those answers and ads new questions, but that was not the issue at hand, but a False Fact. Todd comes to help Len with an “abridge version” of the old responses – the evidence of the False Fact - as my explanation of EWPC, which in fact were on the link that I referred in my response to Ken as “Your good intentions are no longer necessary. The EWPC article EWPC Leadership (w/o links) has a better approach: that of essential business requirements, as the breakthrough tipping point to promote leadership.”

False Fact #4: IMEUC operates on the Economic Level. As “Many on the GridWise side start out with a control orientation, a continuation of the load limiting approaches most recently in the news in California’s short-lived thermostat proposals. As they work the problem, and become more aware of the complexity and diversity of the problem, they inevitably migrate more toward an agent-based approach. (Someone, I think it was Apperson Johnson, once said, “an agent is an object that can say no!”). … Eventually these agents have to be able to negotiate around the issues of scarcity and value; and of the desires of their owners. Such complex negotiations cannot be handled at the control level, but only at the economic level. This will push things toward the EWPC model.” Todd came to help Len and deviate the False Fact of IMEUC. BTW Todd is now silent and Bob followed him. In 2005 Len explained that his approach was a “prices to devices,” when he wrote “Jose: You're close…”

It is very important to understand that “Prices to Devices” has potential for being a market segment, but NO for the whole market.

eMail Enviado: La Hora de la Tierra es Mañana Sábado 29

Este eMail es dedicado al apreciado, distinguido y notable Dr. Rafael Molina Morillo, en compensación por lo negativo que pudiese haber sido mi artículo No hay Apagón de 5 Minutos Hoy sin que obrara en mi ninguna mala intención.

Estimados líderes, lectores y público en general,

El 29 de marzo del 2008, de 8 a 9 de la noche, millones de personas alrededor del mundo se unirán para “apagar las luces” por el lapso de una hora para demostrar su preocupación sobre el cambio climático.

Podemos promover mucho esta iniciativa y tomar parte de ella apagando las luces y computadoras, cada quien en su hora local y así combatir de manera directa el cambio climático.

Los que se quieran sumar a la campaña pueden reenviar este mensaje.

En un momento histórico en que se insiste en que el petróleo va a llegar a 200 dólares el barril y cuando ya existe un amplio consenso del potencial impacto de los combustibles fósiles en el cambio climático se estará celebrando mañana La Hora de la Tierra para que los ciudadanos de la aldea global tomen conciencia de esa posible catástrofe.

Pero, hay algo práctico, importante y urgente que se puede hacer también. Reformar los sectores eléctricos para desacoplar eficazmente el incentivo perverso de que las rentas de las empresas eléctricas suben con las ventas de electricidad.

Es precisamente en ese desacoplamiento, por medio del desarrollo de los recursos del lado de la demanda que descansa la electricidad sin control de precios (EWPC, por sus siglas en inglés). Uno de los más importantes desarrollos es la inversión coordinada en la eficiencia energética que puede facilitar en los próximos cuatro años una reducción del 25% del consumo de petróleo (ver email enviado abajo).

En el último artículo EWPC Leadership (w/o links) que publiqué en se resume y traduce de la forma siguiente: “Esta es una síntesis (sin ningún enlace) de la apertura de la brecha EWPC, la cual trae claridad absoluta y dirección para habilitar un cambio cultural a la industria eléctrica de la tercera revolución industrial. La Integración de la demanda por los 2GRs (detallistas de segunda generación) resultará en grandes ahorros de coordinación para la sociedad, tanto en las inversiones multianuales y en los costos de operación de los clientes. Dejar a los clientes a sálvese quien pueda es una debilidad … que es suplida por la EWPC.

Esperando la buena acogida de esta propuesta.

Muy atentamente,

José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D.
Consultor Sistémico: Electricidad
Promotor de la EWPC y del GMH

P.D.: Se sugiere dar hoy y mañana la más amplia divulgación de este mensaje. Gracias!

From: José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, PhD

Sent: Saturday, November 17, 2007 4:56 PM

To: 'Rsegura’; 'Francisco Mendez'; 'Rolando Gonzalez Bunster'; 'Manuel F. Perez Dubuc'; 'Lucio Monari'; 'Gilberto Chona '; 'Temístocles Montás'; 'Moisés Pineda'; 'Roberto Saladín '; 'Aliona Cebotari Ouanes'; 'J Portocarreiro '; 'Andres van der Horst Alvarez'; 'Jaime Moreno (CNC)'; 'René Villarreal '

Subject: Reducir 25% a la Factura Petrolera en 4 años

Estimados líderes, lectores y público en general,

Reducir a las tres cuartas partes la factura petrolera en los próximos 4 años es un mensaje de muy alta significación para el futuro del país.

Para lograr esa gran meta, similar a la de Kennedy de poner un hombre en la luna en una década, es absolutamente necesario un cambio estructural, el cual puede satisfacer la aparente disyuntiva en “El Discurso del Ahorro,” que aparece en la columna Espejo de Papel, de Diario Libre, y que expresa: “Los dominicanos necesitamos gastar petróleo para impulsar el crecimiento y ahorrar petróleo para sostenerlo. La disyuntiva hace que el problema de los combustibles sea de difícil solución…”

El sector más importante para alcanzar una meta como esa es el sector eléctrico. Una propuesta para alcanzarla aparece en la nota Una Crítica Eléctrica al Discurso Presidencial que se complementa en el artículo To EEI: “Let's Ban Regulation,” Starting in Ohio, aunque la idea subyacente sería que empezáramos lo antes posible en el país.

Evidentemente y por ejemplo, esta es una nota de esperanza, como la planteada por el presidente de la Asociación de Comerciantes e Industriales de Santiago (ver Empresarios apoyan con reservas el plan de ahorro), que no obstante se “quejó de que la disposición orientada a impulsar el desarrollo del gas natural en el transporte en general, no tomó en cuenta la actividad industrial y comercial nacional, y es precisamente ese sector que hace uso continuo de dicho combustible en las plantas de generación y de emergencia.”

Esperando la buena acogida de esta propuesta.

Muy atentamente,

José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D.
Consultor Sistémico: Electricidad
Promotor de la EWPC y del GMH

P.D.: Se sugiere dar la más amplia divulgación de este mensaje. Gracias!