miércoles, diciembre 22, 2010

Cuento de Navidad "Un País Sin Apagones Arbitrarios," que se Suma al del 4% para la Educación y al de "El Correo Electrónico" del Dr. Molina Morillo

Estimada o estimado líder,

Muy cortésmente, sugiero que lean lo que muy respetuosamente considero como el Cuento de Navidad El correo electrónico, escrito por el Dr. Rafael Molina Morillo (DRMM). Recomiendo encarecidamente, tomarlo muy en cuenta, ya que sugiere una reedición del altamente exitoso Cuento de Navidad de un 4% para la Educación. En este tercer Cuento de Navidad la consigna es #RDUPSA que trata de vislumbrar República Dominicana Un País Sin Apagones Arbitrarios, que transforma el servicio eléctrico en uno que la gente adore aquí y también en el extranjero.

Amparado en los avances de lo que el DRMM llama “Nuestra Señora de la Tecnología,” por ejemplo, Facebook, Twitter y los Blogs, que son instrumentos de redes sociales, que nacieron para el mercado de consumo y se vienen difundiendo rápidamente en el país, han emergido para transformar radicalmente las relaciones sociales de los consumidores con las empresas, para así aumentar la creación de valor mejorando significativamente la experiencia de los clientes. Son precisamente esos avances de la humanidad en la era digital los que permiten ir más allá de las sugerencias de la Comisión dirigida por Monsieur Attali, sobre “Desarrollar servicios públicos de calidad.” Como escribí anteriormente, sugiero “… impulsar uno que la gente adore conforme al futuro emergente a nivel global. Un servicio eléctrico que la gente adore… cambiaría grandemente en el lado positivo la imagen internacional del sector eléctrico.”

En vez de seguir trabajando intensamente para quedarnos cada vez más atrasados en la era digital, gastando recursos pensando solamente en la realidad imperante local, que se concentra a enfrentar principalmente el hurto generalizado, bajo una reestructuración del sector eléctrico basada en la EWPC-AF el alcance de las oportunidades en el mercado global, para mejorar significativamente la experiencia del cliente, que además de enfrentar el hurto va mucho más allá de esa realidad sin dejar de lado importantes oportunidades para mejorar su rentabilidad y su sostenibilidad. Para entender las grandes oportunidades latentes que he venido documentando, sugiero que pongan atención a la nota The Rise of the Intermediates, cuyo titular (Tweet) coloqué en “la bendición divina (según el DRMM)” del canal Twitter, acompañada con las consignas (hashtags) #EWPC #RDUPSA que agrupan y permiten, dentro de ese canal, el acceso a Tweets anteriores relacionados.

Pretendiendo hacer de la República Dominicana Un País Sin Apagones Arbitrarios, al transformar el servicio eléctrico en uno que la gente adore, ¿sería posible que nos entusiasmemos en tratar de reeditar otro Cuento de Navidad bajo la consigna #RDUPSA?

Feliz Navidad

martes, diciembre 21, 2010

The Rise of the Intermediates

"The Rise of the Intermediates" is the Fourth Tectonic Shift (see Fourteen Tectonic Shifts for Green, written by Michael Kanellos, on December 20, 2010 ) that I suggest in the following comment might signaled the end of electric power utilities retail monopolies. What is your point of view?

Hi Michael,

At the end of this post is the free summary of Gartner’s 2011 predictions, which seem to relate well with “The Rise of the Intermediates” that “…will fill the gap between utilities and consumers and, ideally, will be able to make their fees more palatable by being able to garner revenue from both of them.”

Could you give us an idea on how does it relates to the comments under your article at the link about “cranky people with enough time on their hands to attend public hearings.’?

In the next 3 paragraphs I copy my last post under said link:


Please take a good look at the EWPC post The New California Capitalist Model to Initiate the Transformation of the Global Power Industry, where I used two of the above posts in the following:”

Kate Rowland has set a challenge in her Intelligent Utility article "Smart meter reflux continues" of August 16, 2010, which I respond to below. The challenge is based on a quote made by Peter Darbee, CEO and president of PG&E Corporation, which says:

“As we go forward, I think the stakes are very great because once again, California is in the position to serve as the model for the rest of the United States when the United States has said it’s not ready to move forward. And the challenge that we have is, are we going to be a good model, or a bad model, or an indifferent model”
In particular, do you see Gartner’s “… energy provisioning transformation” as the end of a “…bad model” of retail monopolies, as those “Intermediates” become “new players” set “…by a Confluence of Policies and Market Forces” that should compete among themselves?

Merry Christmas,

José Antonio

viernes, diciembre 17, 2010

¿Pondremos la Educación y/o la Electricidad en el Núcleo o en el Contexto de la Estrategia Nacional de Desarrollo?

Estimada o estimado líder,

Muy cortésmente someto a consideración el concepto innovador del Núcleo para introducirlo en la Estrategia Nacional de Desarrollo (END). Todo lo que no es parte del Núcleo de la END es parte de su Contexto.

Geoffrey A. Moore, en su libro publicado en el 2005, Dealing with Darwin, separa todos los procesos de una organización en el Núcleo y el Contexto. En el Núcleo aparecen los procesos que diferencian competitivamente, que evidentemente forman parte también de los procesos de Misión Crítica. Los procesos del Núcleo son los que se convierten en la Marca País y sugiero que se deben corresponder al proceso revolucionario de la Digitalización de la Cultura Humana, con el Internet, la Banda Ancha y los Celulares que lo cambiarán todo, de acuerdo a lo dicho recientemente por el mismo Moore.

Hay procesos de Misión Crítica que no deben fallar que pertenecen al Contexto. No obstante, cualquier inversión adicional más allá de asegurar que un proceso de Misión Critica del Contexto no falle es una pérdida de recursos. Propongo que la definición del Núcleo sea una de las ideas que deben primar en las decisiones de la END.

Ya que el Presupuesto de la Nación para el 2011 está casi decidido, un trabajo importante que podríamos hacer en los próximos cuatro o cinco meses es concentrarnos para extraer recursos del Contexto que no sean de Misión Crítica. La idea sería reubicarlos en un Presupuesto Complementario de medio año, para así poder financiar los procesos del Núcleo de la END.

Defendiendo la estrategia de lograr el 4% para la Educación, ¿estaremos preparados y dispuestos a iniciar una revolución amparada en la Digitalización de la Cultura Humana para hacer que la Educación pase a formar parte del Núcleo de la END? ¿Qué conceptualización hemos realizado para dar ese importante paso?

En caso contrario, será entonces la Educación una actividad de Misión Crítica del Contexto? Lo mismo podemos preguntarnos para el Turismo, la Electricidad y otros sectores identificados en la propuesta de la END elaborada por el Ministerio de Economía, Planificación y Desarrollo, junto con el Consejo Nacional de Reforma del Estado, así como los informes del BID y de Monsieur Attali.

En el caso de la Electricidad, en la que ya se ha hecho todo el esfuerzo de conceptualización, sugiero que no vale la pena que sigamos tratándola como parte del contexto en un mundo dirigido hacia la Digitalización de la Cultura Humana. Para considerarla como candidata al Núcleo, sugiero que miren atentamente la serie de mensajes enviados durante el mes de noviembre del 2010, que le siguen a la nota Una Estrategia de Electricidad para Enfrentar los Retos de Competitividad, Fiscalidad e Institucionalidad y que aparecen abajo, cuyos asuntos son:

Visita de Marranzini al Congreso: ¿Será el Sector Eléctrico el Mejor Candidato para Volvernos Competitivos Internacionalmente?, del día 9;

De la Economía de los Contratos a la Economía de la Confianza, del día 14;

La Economía de la Confianza y la Red Inteligente Conveniente al Consumidor, del día 21; y

Una Mejora al Informe Attali - Un Servicio Eléctrico que la Gente Adore, del día 26.


Felices pascuas y un próspero año 2011,

José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D. - LinkedIn

viernes, diciembre 03, 2010

Does the Future Holds a Homogeneous Smart Grid Black Swan?

Megatrends and black swans of the intelligent utility: Halcrow's Mark Gabriel and Siemens Energy's John Wilson talk about the industry's future is an insighful contribution to the power industry, written by Kate Rowland on December 2nd, 2010. Next is my response to her questions: "... let's talk megatrends and black swans. What do you think the future of our industry holds? Do you have any megatrends to add to Gabriel's and Wilson's?"

The modernization of the power industry that is being called the "smart grid" is one of the megatrends that we will witness. However, the current homogeneous end-to-end "smart grid" is bound sooner or later to experience a black swan for the lack of the needed restructuring of the industry into a heterogeneous “smart grid,” which will be friendly to the development of microgrids.

As the ongoing monolithic end-to-end "smart grid" has such a huge complexity, I respond to a LinkedIn group member comment with:

I think we need "tightly-coupled smart grid technologies," but agree with you that they should not be used to "bolster the central system."

Don't you think it may also have the potential to disassemble itself under a Black Swan event? I claim that the microgrid friendly The Electricity Without Price Controls Architecture Framework (EWPC-AF) based "smart grid" is a way to greatly reduce the said complexity.

In the post Why is there so much potential risk associated with the smart grid?, I give three comments that show how the EWPC-AF greatly reduces and better mitigates such a risk. The last comment says:

The smart grid has been made more complex than necessary, as a result of a system-of-systems architecting approach designed to protect most of utility system status quo profits, leaving practically intact their systems. That approach is summarized as: interoperability first and operability second. It can also be though as utility first and customers and society second.


José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, PhD

Creator of the EWPC-AF

viernes, noviembre 19, 2010

eMail Enviado: La Economía de la Confianza y la Red Inteligente Conveniente al Consumidor

Estimada o estimado líder,

Les tengo una primicia sobre el principal problema que está enfrentando el proceso de cambio hacia las redes inteligentes, que se ha iniciado con la instalación de la Infraestructura Avanzada de Medición (AMI por sus siglas en inglés). Se trata del “Consumer Engagement,” que traduzco como el Compromiso del Consumidor.

La primicia aparece en la nota Smart Grid Customers are Looking for Convenience, as Opposed to Engagement, que traduzco como “Los Clientes de la Red Inteligente están Buscando la Conveniencia, como lo Opuesto al Compromiso.” Mientras la Economía de los Contratos se enfoca en el Compromiso del Consumidor, en la Economía de la Confianza lo haría asociado a la Conveniencia del Consumidor.

Del 29 de noviembre al 1 de diciembre próximos, se celebrará por primera vez el METERING, BILLING/CRM CARIBBEAN 2010, en esta ocasión en la ciudad de Santo Domingo. Espero que durante ese evento, en que la CDEEE presentará su estrategia de AMI, se pueda dialogar como sugiere la publicación “La ruta hacia el crecimiento sostenible en la República Dominicana: fiscalidad, competitividad, institucionalidad y electricidad,” elaborada por los expertos del BID sobre el proceso de cambio que involucra la mencionada primicia, que como saben está íntimamente ligada a la nota Una Estrategia de Electricidad para Enfrentar los Retos de Competitividad, Fiscalidad e Institucionalidad.

Saludos muy cordiales,
José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D. - LinkedIn

Smart Grid Customers are Looking for Convenience, as Opposed to Engagement.

Does the Smart Grid Really Need Consumer Engagement? is an insighful article written by Michael Jung that we all have been waiting for. This is a comment I posted under it:

Michael Jung's insightful contribution is that Smart Grid customers are looking for convenience, as opposed to engagement.

Congratulations Michael! You have offered all power industry stakeholders such a great contribution.

Under the minimalist, emergent, and holistic, Electricity Without Price Controls (EWPC) Architecture Framework (EWPC-AF), my response to your question “Does the Smart Grid Really Need Consumer Engagement?” can be found in the June 2010 EWPC post Forget the Customer Engagement Debate; Think Risk Taking Suppliers.

I ask Stephen to confirm that his support for customer engagement is based retailers’ business models that are restricted by the present regulations, after looking at the last paragraph of my post that says:

To enable the development of risk taking business model innovations, I added that what is needed is an architecture competition “Under the EWPC-AF, [where] competing Second Generation Retailers (2GRs) go through Geoffrey Moore’s Technology Adoption Life Cycle, by trying to Cross the Chasm (not easy) and then go through The Tornado to get to Main Street."

José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, PhD
Creatorof the EWPC-AF

domingo, noviembre 14, 2010

eMail Enviado: De la Economía de los Contratos a la Economía de la Confianza

Estimada o estimado líder,

En seguimiento a la nota Una Estrategia de Electricidad para Enfrentar los Retos de Competitividad, Fiscalidad e Institucionalidad, que introduje en el eMail anterior, muy cortésmente, informo que en el artículo de Business Week, The Old Solutions Have Become the New Problems, escrito por la afamada ex-profesora de la Escuela de Negocios de Harvard, Shoshana Zuboff, sugiere entre otras reglas el cambio de la economía de escala a la economía de la confianza:


New Rule No. 3: Collaborate and Federate to Compete

… you need to collaborate and federate to provide the support individuals need. You can't do it alone because the needs of individuals don't conform to existing organizational and industry boundaries. This means learning how to manage what you don't control or own. These economies of trust are becoming even more important than economies of scale.

The emphasis shifts from contracts and legal sanctions to trust and transparency as companies work together, aligned with their customers' interests—sharing core values, business practices, infrastructure, and systems.
Bajo la óptica de la economía de la confianza, sin necesidad de rescindir los contratos, la relevancia de dichos contratos y la normativa del sector eléctrico pierden vigencia. Asimismo, sugieren que los generadores y la banca multilateral colaboren activamente para que tomemos la delantera con una transformación del sector eléctrico para volvernos competitivos internacionalmente.

Muy atentamente,

José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D. - LinkedIn


From: José Antonio Vanderhorst Silverio, Ph.D.
Sent: Tuesday, November 09, 2010 9:13 PM
To: Readers
Subject: Visita de Marranzini al Congreso: ¿Será el Sector Eléctrico el Mejor Candidato para Volvernos Competitivos Internacionalmente?

Estimado o estimada líder,

En ocasión de la visita de don Celso Marranzini al Congreso, todos los sectores necesitan preguntarse si ¿será el sector eléctrico el mejor candidato para volvernos competitivos internacionalmente? La razón de esa pregunta nace en la nota Una Estrategia de Electricidad para Enfrentar los Retos de Competitividad, Fiscalidad e Institucionalidad, que promueve la visión de convertirnos en líderes de la industria eléctrica, abriéndola a la competitividad, a la innovación y asociándola al desarrollo de ciencia y tecnología en un plazo por ejemplo de 10 años.

Esa pregunta tiene su origen en la imperiosa necesidad de desarrollar sectores transables, que aparecen en la publicación “La ruta hacia el crecimiento sostenible en la República Dominicana: fiscalidad, competitividad, institucionalidad y electricidad,” elaborada por varios consultores contratados por el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, que rindieron informes hasta marzo del 2009. En dicha publicación, el consultor y editor Manuel Agosin resume claramente la necesidad de "identificar y desarrollar nuevos sectores en los que podría hacerse competitiva internacionalmente," ya que el turismo y las zonas francas han perdido su fuerza.

Cabe notar, que el objetivo de dicha publicación, que supongo todos los sectores conocen, es “contribuir a la profundización del análisis de algunos de los temas que integran la agenda de desarrollo, con miras a promover el diálogo y la búsqueda de soluciones a los principales retos que actualmente enfrenta el país.” Dicha publicación propone una estrategia basada en los cuatro frentes de fiscalidad, competitividad, institucionalidad y electricidad, posponiendo, por ejemplo, las estrategias para el mejoramiento de la educación y la modernización del sector financiero.

Respondiendo a esa publicación destaco que la electricidad puede sobresalir si hay voluntad política hacia la institucionalidad y si se concibe como un sector transable (en lo que más nos importa nos haría líderes) en el mercado global que atrae inversiones en otros sectores transables que están haciendo mucha falta para generar divisas para el país.

Saludos,

José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D. - LinkedIn

viernes, noviembre 05, 2010

Borrador de Una Estrategia de Electricidad para Enfrentar los Retos de Competitividad, Fiscalidad e Institucionalidad

Los dominicanos debemos acoger gratamente la publicación “La ruta hacia el crecimiento sostenible en la República Dominicana: fiscalidad, competitividad, institucionalidad y electricidad,” elaborado por varios consultores contratados por el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, que rindieron informes hasta marzo del 2009. El objetivo de dicha publicación es “contribuir a la profundización del análisis de algunos de los temas que integran la agenda de desarrollo, con miras a promover el diálogo y la búsqueda de soluciones a los principales retos que actualmente enfrenta el país.” Esta síntesis trata de contribuir positivamente al mencionado diálogo.

Gina Montiel, la gerente líder de la producción de dicha publicación, luego de introducir la fiscalidad, la competitividad y la electricidad afirma que “el eslabón común a los tres grandes desafíos antes nombrados es la necesidad de fortalecer su marco institucional.” La institucionalidad conlleva un enfoque bajo el novedoso concepto de la gobernanza.

Para facilitar la comprensión del concepto de gobernaza, recojo de esa publicación los siguientes índices representativos: 1) voz y rendición de cuentas, 2) estabilidad política, 3) efectividad gubernamental, 4) calidad regulatoria, 5) estado de derecho y 6) control de la corrupción. Es evidente que estos índices del sistema total en su conjunto son interdependientes y por tanto sistémicos.

Para establecer el marco estratégico de la publicación, el consultor y editor Manuel Agosin concluye el capítulo 1, titulado “El desarrollo económico y social: oportunidades y desafíos,” diciendo que “Desde luego, existen otros problemas, entre los cuales está el mejoramiento de la educación y la modernización del sector financiero. Las restricciones al crecimiento provenientes de estos problemas continuarán latentes. En el mediano plazo, sin embargo, las medidas adecuadas que se adopten para los cuatro frentes identificados más arriba podrían otorgarle al país otro período de crecimiento acelerado.”

Los autores definen el desafío de la electricidad como un problema de gobernanza. El consultor Carlos Rufin sintetiza la esencia de ese problema cuando dice que “El cálculo político es que los colectivos así favorecidos prefieren la mezcla de precios bajos con servicio limitado a un servicio mejor a precios más altos.” La ilusión de una política de precios bajos da como resultado una realidad de costos mucho más elevados que lo normal.

Agosin dice que “En el mediano y largo plazo, la República Dominicana deberá identificar y desarrollar nuevos sectores en los que podría hacerse competitiva internacionalmente.” Como aparece en la nota Plan de Nación sin la Quimera de la Electricidad Barata, la electricidad debe ser lo que más nos importa en nuestra estrategia de competitividad e innovación. Una excepción notable al posicionamiento competitivo del país en materia de inversión en Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación es que el sector eléctrico no necesita esperar.

Dicha nota dice que la revista Technology Review publicó un artículo en abril del 2005, titulado "What Matters Most Depends on Where You Are" (lo que más importa depende de donde estas). Dicen que "cada país revela sus propias preocupaciones, usualmente nacen de su historia peculiar y las circunstancias actuales. Dicen también que "hasta esas innovaciones que más directamente enfrentan necesidades urgentes regionales prueban tener aplicación para todo el planeta. Documentan 7 países que examinaron "cuáles tecnologías emergentes son las más importantes para las sociedades y economías de las naciones, y para explicar que hace esas tecnologías características únicas de esos países.”

Desde el punto de vista de la estrategia sugerida por Rufin, “que corresponde al esquema actual, sigue ofreciendo las mejores posibilidades para cumplir con los cuatro criterios de selección,” hace falta agregar dos criterios adicionales relacionados a los costos de la electricidad: 1) el aprovechamiento económico de la excesiva inversión que han hecho los consumidores que sería clave para lograr grandes ahorros por coordinación en un mercado minorista y 2) el potencial de exportación de bienes y servicios en el mercado global de la solución. Ambos criterios impulsan el desarrollo orgánico de redes inteligentes de forma incremental con dicha capacidad instalada para ofrecer un servicio de alta confiabilidad y calidad en las zonas geográficas seleccionadas que no se pueden ofrecer con el esquema actual.

De la publicación resulta evidente que la crisis sistémica de grandes proporciones del sector eléctrico ha contagiado severamente los frentes de fiscalidad y competitividad. En el debate debe tenerse muy presente que sería muy costoso para el país desperdiciar las grandes oportunidades subyacentes en esa crisis sistémica para contentarnos con un sector eléctrico que apoye marginalmente los desafíos de fiscalidad y competitividad en el mundo emergente. Por el contrario, en el debate debemos centrar la atención en una restructuración integral del sector eléctrico con visión de futuro y alcance transable que se refuerce mutuamente con la fiscalidad, la competitividad y la institucionalidad.

De apoyar el sector eléctrico grandemente el desafío de competitividad, apoyaría igualmente el desafío de fiscalidad. Para que no desperdiciemos la crisis, rescato lo que sugiere el consultor Carlos Rufin en una “estrategia de actuación: conseguir los cambios propuestos exige una presión muy fuerte sobre el gobierno para que renuncie a lo que la lógica política imperante considera instrumentos esenciales de poder. Existe, además, el desafío de comprometer a gobiernos futuros para que no reviertan este cambio.”

En cuanto a la viabilidad política, Rufin agrega que “… hay que examinar las posibilidades de implantación de las propuestas. Ello implica ver si las propuestas exigen una nueva legislación; si son consistentes con el marco constitucional; si vulneran los intereses de grupos poderosos que pudieran bloquearlas; y si los actores encargados de su puesta en marcha, particularmente los actores estatales, tienen la capacidad técnica y el apoyo de sus superiores para cumplir con sus responsabilidades. También puede ser necesario considerar la compensación a los intereses perjudicados para evitar su oposición.”

Todos esos aspectos son mucho más manejables si se logra la voluntad política de que el Estado renuncie a los mencionados instrumentos de poder para impulsar la governanza que requerimos para colocarnos a la vanguardia de los sectores eléctricos del mundo. Al igual que las zonas francas y el turismo que se desarrollaron desde cero durante la década perdida, el desarrollo de un sector eléctrico completamente funcional desde cero a partir de medio siglo perdido debe ser el eje central de la estrategia dominicana.

La aceleración necesaria para que emerjan nuevos sectores transables de la economía que le impartan un mayor dinamismo a las exportaciones y al producto puede basarse en un sector eléctrico que contribuya en la atracción de esas inversiones. Esos sectores son aquellos que aprovechan la cogeneración de electricidad reduciendo el consumo de la factura petrolera. Para atraerlos, se necesita el desarrollo de un mercado vibrante de generación y comercialización de electricidad al por mayor y al detalle. En dicho mercado habrá una creciente participación de clientes libres, al desestimar el límite de potencia a los clientes regulados.

lunes, octubre 18, 2010

Dos Grandes Revoluciones Tecnológicas: ¿Valdrá Más Pájaro en Mano, que Cien Volando?


“Estamos en la antesala de una nueva gran revolución tecnológica”
Doctor Leonel Fernández, Presidente de la República.


Estimada y estimado líder,

Muy consciente de que no tengo todas las respuestas, estoy de acuerdo con el Presidente Fernández de que estamos en la antesala de una nueva gran revolución tecnológica. No obstante, entiendo que estamos viviendo en medio de la gran Revolución de los Sistemas, que le precede a la que está en la antesala. ¿Habremos nosotros aprovechado suficiente del enorme potencial de la primera? Además, ¿podremos desarrollar la capacidad necesaria proveniente de la primera para poder aprovechar mejor la segunda?

En sincronicidad con las declaraciones del Presidente, he seguido dos artículos conmemorativos al 40 aniversario del libro Future Schock de Alvin Toffler, publicados en días consecutivos en FastCompany.com por Greg Lindsay. Un buen ejemplo del mencionado potencial de la primera gran revolución lo podemos ver en el artículo Future Shock at 40: What the Tofflers Got Right (and Wrong), del 15 de octubre del 2010, de donde extraigo que:

One reason the Tofflers seem stuck in the past is that we have yet to take all of their recommendations. “It really upsets me that people say we have to bring manufacturing back,” Heidi said. “We have to re-train people how to think! We can’t compete with second-wave manufacturing, and China is starting to realize it, too. Future Shock is about the process of change, and The Third Wave is about the structures of change. And so far we’ve proven incapable of designing the systems that prepare us for change.”

Entiendo que nuestro gran atraso como nación es que como muchos otros países hemos hecho caso omiso del mensaje de los Tofflers y en especial el diseño de los sistemas que necesitamos para reemplazar los arreglos que han evolucionado en antisistemas. Los Tofflers tienen gran incidencia en la Revolución de los Sistemas. ¿Será tanto defectuosa una Estrategia Nacional de Desarrollo concentrada en empresas seguidoras de la Segunda Ola? En vez de empresas seguidoras, creo que necesitamos desarrollar empresas líderes de la Tercera Ola, como sugiero en la nota eMail Enviado - IDECEM :) No hay crisis, Faltan Líderes.

Adicionalmente en el artículo anterior Future Shock at 40: The Tofflers Stir Up "Cyberdust" With New Scenarios, del 14 de octubre del 2010, extraigo parte de lo que dice Deborah Westphal, la socia gestora de Toffler Associates:

We’ve built much of the world economy on an industrial model, and that model doesn’t work in an information-centric society. That’s probably the greatest challenge we still face – understanding the old rules don’t apply for the future.

¿Podrían esas ideas explicar como prepararnos para poder competir mucho mejor con Centroamérica? Dice Heidi que hay que entrenar de nuevo a la gente en como pensar. Definitivamente es necesario dar un giro del pensamiento mecánico al sistémico y cuando eso sucede el problema del choque del futuro se disuelve y desaparece. ¿Podría el costo de que no cambiemos suficientemente rápido, al seguir resistiendo ciegamente La Tercera Olanaci, reflejarse en la pérdida de las grandes oportunidades que tenemos por delante al impulsar el Plan Dominicano de Desarrollo Sistémico?

Creo que podemos suponer que esas revoluciones son la primera y la segunda parte de lo que los Tofflers llaman La Tercera Ola. Estas son la Quinta y la Sexta Revoluciones Tecnológicas de acuerdo a la experta Venezolana, la Dra. Carlota Pérez, reconocida mundialmente por sus investigaciones sobre Revoluciones Tecnológicas. ¿Provendrá la mayor parte del potencial para los próximos 20 años de la Quinta Revolución Tecnológica que está ya desplegando su potencial en el resto de la economía a nivel global?

Por las inquietudes anteriores, sugiero encarecidamente que nos aseguremos de no desperdiar las oportunidades que tenemos con el pájaro en mano de la nota Rescate a la chilena del Sector Eléctrico: saquemos las empresas que están atrapadas por el derrumbe y cerremos las distribuidoras, para concentrar la atención en cien que podrían venir volando en la Sexta Revolución Tecnológica. De lograrlo, ese rescate sería el ejemplo para poder atrapar otros pájaros en mano de la Revolución de los Sistemas, para desarrollar verdaderos sistemas de educación, agua y salud, que al igual que la electricidad requieren una institución autónoma para impulsarlos.

Al igual que el Presidente John F. Kennedy, el Presidente Leonel Fernández puede pasar a la historia como un estadista que unió al pueblo dominicano para iniciar el renacimiento de la nación. La cita introductoria, divulgada durante la presentación del libro Estado del Futuro 2009, me llevó a identificar al líder tecnológico en que se apoyó Kennedy. En el Resumen Ejecutivo de ese libro dice que “Sabemos más acerca de cómo mover el año pico para las emisiones de GHG (green house gas) para acercarlo al presente, de lo que el pionero de cohetes Werner von Braun sabía sobre como llevar a un hombre de la tierra a la luna cuando el Presidente Kennedy anunció el famoso objetivo de 10 años.”

Me gustaría decir que como pionero del sistema emergente de los sectores eléctricos puedo afirmar que sé más para aprovechar ese pájaro en mano en un plazo de 5 años, “de lo que el pionero de cohetes Werner von Braun sabía sobre como llevar a un hombre de la tierra a la luna cuando el Presidente Kennedy anunció el famoso objetivo de 10 años.” Aunque, por ejemplo, la nanotecnología está ya siendo empleada para reducir los costos de la energía solar, creo que no será sino en Sexta Revolución Tecnológica cuando esta pueda abaratar grandemente los precios de la energía. Mientras tanto, por el interés reciente que tienen los inversionistas, existe buen potencial para bajar los costos de la energía con el rediseño integral de las edificaciones y sus sistemas de apoyo para aumentar la eficiencia energética.

Entiendo que la ingeniería y la arquitectura tienen todo lo que se necesita para dicho rediseño que permitirá reducir la demanda de las edificaciones del orden del 40 por ciento sin necesidad de aumentar los costos de por vida de las mismas. Ese potencial de ahorro se explica en la existencia de una política energética defectuosa a nivel global que por permanecer innecesariamente por muchos años ha expandido los recursos del lado de la oferta excesivamente, mientras los recursos del lado de la demanda han permanecido subdesarrollados.
Si ya eres miembro de LinkedIn, pero no del grupo PDDS, pulsa el enlace Ir al Grupo PDDS que lleva a la Página Web donde podrás solicitar tu inscripción. Si no eres miembro todavía, puedes inscribirte en un instante siguiendo la instrucción que aparece en la parte de abajo de la misma Página.
Gracias a nombre del país,

viernes, octubre 15, 2010

Rescate a la chilena del Sector Eléctrico: saquemos las empresas que están atrapadas por el derrumbe y cerremos las distribuidoras.

Estimado o estimada líder,

Por este medio estoy sugiriendo tu apoyo al Plan Dominicano de Desarrollo Sistémico, que en este momento cuenta con 29 miembros. El asunto un tanto ampliado de este mensaje presenta la analogía “Rescatemos a la chilena el Sector Eléctrico: saquemos las empresas (los mineros) que están atrapadas por el derrumbe (la crisis sistémica) y cerremos las distribuidoras (la mina de los generadores).”

Amplío un poco más la analogía. Basados en un pensamiento del status quo, que corresponde al desarrollo de los recursos del lado de la oferta, el Gobierno sigue una estrategia de la Era de la Producción en Masa. Con esa estrategia, protegida todavía por las instituciones multilaterales, como el FMI, el Banco Mundial y el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, los expertos chilenos han sido contratados por el Gobierno Dominicano para salvar a los generadores, que son contractualmente los verdaderos dueños de las distribuidoras. Esto está confirmado cuando dice “…el Gobierno en su misiva al FMI que tiene la intención de reducir todas las cuentas por pagar a las generadoras de electricidad a un nivel que no requiere el pago de intereses (en efecto, cero días de atraso).”

Las lecciones aprendidas en el rescate de los mineros chilenos sugieren un enfoque del desarrollo de los recursos del lado de la demanda, que en vez de salvar a los dueños de la mina, concentran la atención en salvar a los mineros y a cambiar las reglas de juego basándonos en un pensamiento que corresponde con la realidad actual de la Era de los Sistemas.

Esta es la analogía que apoya el cambio. De acuerdo al Editorial: El ejemplo de los mineros Chilenos, publicado en costaricahoy.info, “Una de las grandes lecciones que nos dejaron los mineros son las palabras que dijo en la madrugada de este miércoles Mario Sepúlveda, el segundo minero chileno rescatado “este país tiene que entender que hay que hacer cambios”, refiriéndose a las causas de la tragedia que los tuvo a él y a otros 32 mineros, 70 días atrapados dentro de la montaña.”

En efecto, siguiendo el ejemplo de los mineros chilenos, los dominicanos tenemos que entender que es necesario hacer una reestructuración del sector eléctrico para rescatar a las empresas atrapadas desde hace mucho tiempo por la crisis sistémica de dicho sector. Si quieres colaborar en la definición de esta alternativa, espero muy atentamente tu participación, y la de otros líderes como tu, en el Grupo Plan Dominicano de Desarrollo Sistémico (PDDS).

Si ya eres miembro de LinkedIn, pero no del grupo PDDS, pulsa el enlace Ir al Grupo PDDS que lleva a la Página Web donde podrás solicitar tu inscripción. Si no eres miembro todavía, puedes inscribirte en un instante siguiendo la instrucción que aparece en la parte de abajo de la misma Página.

Gracias a nombre del país,

José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D. - LinkedIn

jueves, octubre 14, 2010

Smart Grid America Forum II - Shift into the Customer Era

Posted At : October 14, 2010 8:54 AM
Posted By : Katarina Prochazkova - American Leaders Blog

Related Categories: Clean Power Investing, Demand Management, Demand Response, Distribution Management Systems, Energy Efficiency, Grid Security, Metering

At Smart Grid America Forum II, February 15th and 16th 2011, in Washington DC¸ delegates and speakers will consider a set of questions and contribute to a set of collective judgments. Was 2010 the year that pushed Smart Grid out of the boardroom, into marketing departments, and firmly into the American lexicon? Will 2011 be the year that Smart Grid’s paradigm shifts toward consumer utilization, and sales? Has recent resistance from Public Utilities Commissions, and met by utilities attempting to move ahead with AMI and real time pricing, forced Smart Grid stakeholders to re-examine strategy? Conference’s keynote speakers reveal more…

As the conference takes shape, the growing pool of industry leaders, advisors, and early bird delegates will set the tone. They will confront these questions, driving the discussion that follows to steer Smart Grid discourse on to new themes, models, and practices.

Propelled by a mix of keynote speakers, panel & roundtable discussions, and a PR workshop, the conference relies on experienced leadership and depth of perspective from visionaries like PhD. Peter Fox-Penner.

His presentation will link major challenges facing the utility industry: climate change investments, declining sales and the demand for further energy efficiency; as well as smart grid. As these forces interact, and current regulatory compacts and business models become unsustainable; what structures will remain? How will legislation and the competencies of regulation adapt to these needs?

With many key structural issues underlying current Smart Grid Business Models laid out, we can explore the shifting emphasis from infrastructure and software, towards products and services focused on new & renewed utility-customer relationships. How dramatic will the shifts need to be to reinvigorate the sector?

Join PhD. Jose Antonio Vanderhorst Silverio -systemic consultant in the electric power industry and 38 year veteran of the IEEE- in his quest for a fundamental solution that will require deep policy changes “of the highest leadership to restore effectiveness to the whole electric power industry, moving it from an era of mass production to a systems era.”

To demonstrate this, he will explore the integration of key cross-cutting issues needed to reactivate the economy with new energy (mainly electricity), communication (including IT), and construction sector policies. “Resorting to independent symptomatic regulatory solutions is no longer sufficient to face the serious problems of an obsolete mass production energy policy that has led to an unsustainable overexpansion of the resources of the supply side.”

Delegates will be able to appraise these two visions through fresh presentations and case studies provided by our other keynote speakers. Southern California Edison will detail how they have used Demand Side Management to augment their Smart Grid activities. HOK architecture will share lessons learned from their experience in Green Building, integrating energy efficiency and “smart” technologies into their concepts. OPower, will present on their deepening knowledge of customer engagement and behaviors. Hlinko Consulting chimes in on pumping up your Smart Grid efforts using web based PR and Marketing.

Join us in the coming weeks for updates on speakers and their activities, conference news, and other American Leader’s information. We look forward to seeing you in February.

Event website: http://www.americanleaders.com/events/smart-grid-america.html

miércoles, octubre 13, 2010

Easing Smart Meters Path with a New Legislative Mandate

Ken Silverstein has written, on October 12, 2010, the timely article Maryland's Turning Point on Smart Meters: Ratepayers Won't be Patsies, which I responded with this comment:

Hi Ken,

Back in June 2010, I posted the comment Every State Government Should Follow Maryland PSC's Leadership, that said:

Maryland PSC's great leadership decision on BG&E's Smart Metering Project has answered the question posed in the EWPC article Is the Smart Grid that is Being Pushed a Costly Mistake? That decision fulfills Peter Koestenbaum’s leadership strategies on how to achieve greatness: it has extraordinary value on ethics, vision, reality, and courage.

The summary of said article suggests the leadership step waiting to happen: “The main argument is that, by inaction, each State Government should be responsible to their constituencies for a very costly mistake that is being made by letting the smart grid process continue without giving State Regulators the proper mandate.”

On top of that, State Governments need to look very closely at the discussions posted in The Dynamic Pricing Debate Shows that Utilities Won't be Able [to] Engage Customers.

Now I see that you wrote that "The Galvin Institute adds that the technologies are already working and if regulators would ease the path, more providers would participate and those tools would get even better. It also says that for every $1 invested in smart meters, $4 to $5 is returned in the form energy savings, greater productivity and more jobs." Are all regulators able to "ease the path" without the new legislative mandate to open the retail markets for providers competition that I am asking for?

Also supporting the case for a new mandate, the Galvin Electricity Initiative, in their recently launched booklet “An Electric Revolution: Reforming Monopolies, Reinventing the Gridand Giving Power to the People,” says that:

"Recognizing the profound benefits to the economy and environment, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Smart Grid Investment Grant program awarded $4.3 billion to 100 projects during 2009, most of which regrettably emphasize only semi-intelligent electric meters. Alas, fewer than 20 of the projects are
designed to give consumers the real tools and information needed to make informed choices. More than 90 percent of the money is simply going to shovel-ready projects, using meters with limited features that retain a utility’s control of electricity use and price data. The unfortunate result is that these less-sophisticated devices — which in some cases are leading to mysterious overcharges — are not only giving smart meters a bad reputation among consumers, but also raising suspicions about utility motives and predatory practices."

Best regards,

José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D. - LinkedIn

lunes, octubre 11, 2010

Should the World Bank Insists on Maintaining the IOUs-AF in Developing Countries?

First Update. This comments come from the original EWPC Blog.

Comments

World bank supplies only a very small part of finance to country like India. Then it is never in a position now for some umpteen years even to appoint consultants even though it does some semblence of selecting them.ButThe bank officials will admit that the couyntries where they are supposed to work often decide who is going there and who is not going there.Having said this please note that World bank is not a pure bank but a Political Economic bank and it has its own limitations. Often it futhurs the interest of the private enterprise from countries that have a major say. So yo can not wexpect these people to write the energy policies for countries to whom they lend except the ones who are so small that in a map you have to use a Looking Glass.There is much talk and no fire!Then again Going to demand side often means encouraging the Industries to produce such goods and services which do not exist in the coutry in Question.The world bank is not really bothered till the country experts themselves say so and Minister concerned then takes up the case. There is also a problem of scale of production and people who can take up such projects. Sometimes it may be there and at other times it may not be there. In case of India world bank will leave it to Private sector like Siemens etc to do the work.So let be clear about what this World bank is about.They are there to initiate development and letting the private sector from their member countries take over in one form or other. they have a develpment arm but the purpose is not altruistic
Alok Misra

Thank you Alok,

Essentially what I am saying is that there are two competing energy policies at the most highest level. The IOUs-AF (with many incremental extensions) and the EWPC-AF. I believe that a shift at the WB away from the IOUs-AF is in accordance with what is says at the World Bank Website:

At the World Bank we have made the world's challenge--to reduce global poverty--our challenge.

The Bank focuses on achievement of the Millennium Development Goals that call for the elimination of poverty and sustained development. The goals provide us with targets and yardsticks for measuring results.

Our mission is to help developing countries and their people reach the goals by working with our partners to alleviate poverty. We address global challenges in ways that advance an inclusive and sustainable globalization--that overcome poverty, enhance growth with care for the environment, and create individual opportunity and hope.

Six strategic themes drive our efforts. By focusing on these strategic themes, the Bank delivers technical, financial and other assistance to those most in need and where it can have the greatest impact and promote growth: to the poorest countries, fragile states and the Arab world; to middle-income countries; to solving global public goods issues; and to delivering knowledge and learning services.
Jose Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio

In response to the Oct 10, 2010, energybiz.com article Bringing Electricity to Poorer Countries: Electrification tops UN Agenda, by Ken Silverstein, I wrote on Oct 11, 2010, the following comment under the title "Strategy for the Development of the Resources of the Demand Side:"

Hi Ken,

You report that "… the United Nations has established a goal of bringing power generation to the under-developed regions so that they can improve their quality of life." Such a goal could be very misleading as it can be interpreted as a policy in accordance with the Investor Owned Utilities Architecture Framework (IOUs-AF) that concentrates the attention into the resources of the supply side, with generation as the key technology.

That IOUs-AF policy has led to such a development of the resources of the supply side, which has been saturated for quite some time. During that time, that IOUs-AF policy has kept the development of the resources of the demand side highly underdeveloped. That is why the potential of the development of demand side is where most of the value creation is available to both develop and even more so for the developing countries, with for example net zero energy buildings as a goal.

So what is needed is not just to bring power generation to the under-developed regions of the world, but to also design an emergent power system with the highest systemic leverage possible. That involves a paradigm shift from the status quo IOUs-AF to the Electricity Without Price Controls Architecture Framework (EWPC-AF).

In order to find out which is the best way to satisfy the needs of underdeveloped regions of the world, I strongly suggest that the UN, as an integral part of the socio-technical whole power system, should concentrate their active attention in the EWPC article Which Country Will Take the Leadership of a Global Vision for Advancing Grids for Customers? In that article, I give the example of a developing country, the Dominican Republic, “… as one of the potential candidates to initiate the transformation of the electric power industry. I did that because that transformation is more dependent on a mental model shift about energy policy than a technological one to satisfy customers’ needs and to reduce industry strategic risk.”

Should the World Bank, as an active investor arm of the UN, insists on maintaining the IOUs-AF in South Africa, the Dominican Republic, and elsewhere?

Best regards,

José Antonio

martes, octubre 05, 2010

A Suggestion to Some Global Elected Official on Bernanke's Threat From Deficits 'Real And Growing'

The October 4, 2010, story Bernanke: Threat From Deficits 'Real And Growing' distributed by The Associated Press, starts with “The economy could be hurt if Congress and the White House fail to come up with a plan to curb the nation's huge budget deficits in the coming years, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned Monday.” That is a tough situation that other governments, like that of the Dominican Republic, are also facing.

The story adds that “Bernanke steered clear of making recommendations on the best way to reduce the deficits, saying those tough decisions are best left to the nation's elected officials.” Below I advice elected officials of countries with huge deficits on why the electric power industry is one of the best ways to help reduce it.

The electric power industry is ripe for a transformation that is a predetermined element of most plausible global scenarios, being a prerequisite, for example, to the White House scenario of clean energy. Such a transformation differs greatly from the ongoing reform process that is named as the Smart Grid. The difference is that the reform process has kept, through a system-of-systems architecture approach, the utility status quo practically intact, thus providing an inferior solution to customers and society in the global marketplace.

That inferior solution has its roots in the flawed restructuring process initiated in the 1990s that came no only to halt with the California crisis, which has unnecessarily extended the useful life of vertical integration in many states, but that actually became a counter reform process to the organized wholesale markets, for example, with one of the worst manifestations in the Dominican Republic. Whether under vertical integration, or under organized wholesale markets, smart meter investments are being made in the global marketplace by risk averse utilities or what I term First Generation Retailers. As a result, most of the stimulus funds are now further engrossing healthy utilities or being transfered to generators, as in the case of the Dominican Republic.

To provide the highest systemic leverage, industry has one single key facet that is explained by the post "Why the IEEE Smart Grid World Forum Requires Learning About T&D Transportation Ultraquality," which went missing in the above mentioned restructuring process. For that simple reason, the key professional of the industry are the system engineers, whose role involves system planning in addition to system operations. Those system engineers must be the leaders of the primary regulated T&D Grid system compact of the EWPC-AF to develop and execute a long run system adequacy and a short run system security strategy designed to implement the ultraquality imperative.

Similar to the tough decision made by Theodore Roosevelt during The Great Depression, elected officials need to consider the restructuring of the electric power industry in order to transform it with a superior solution for the benefit of humanity. Under the Electricity Without Price Controls Architecture Framework, smart meters investments are not be regulated, but must be done by competitive retailer’s investment in the marketplace.

As a result, Second Generation Retailers (2GRs) that lead the complementary Enterprise system of the EWPC-AF do not get a regulated rate base, as retail and wholesale markets mutually reinforce each other. 2GRs depend on their business models to recoup all their advance technology investments. Thus, 2GRs must be non risk averse.

The message to elected officials is that the transformation of the power industry only needs the incentives of an effective energy policy that promotes long run production capital private investments, instead of more short run financial government stimulus investments. That could be part of the plan to curb huge budget deficits of many nations. For more details to support that really tough decision, please take a look at the EWPC article Answering “What Energy Business Are You In?” As the Way Out of The Third Depression, whose summary says that:

During a similar time of great change, railroads and utilities have defined their business incorrectly, by ignoring several insights, like the one Theodore Levitt gave us in his 1960’s Marketing Myopia manifesto. A quote on the 1982 book Megatrends explains utility investors why the attempt to keep a monopoly on the customer relationship, with an ineffective old economy Big-Bang Advanced Metering Infrastructure will further extend the uneconomic overexpansion of the resources of the supply side. To reduce the odds of the return of the depression, we need policies for the new economy, like power industry transformation and boring banking, which mutually reinforce each other with the coming communications’ boom to enable innovative value creation and long term jobs.

lunes, octubre 04, 2010

Why is there so much potential risk associated with the smart grid?

"The sheer volume of interactive devices on two-way networks is the biggest risk. By the end of 2015 we will have 440 million new hackable points on the grid. Nobody’s equipped to deal with that today" is part of the excerpts of a conversation between Kenneth Van Meter, Lockheed’s general manager of Energy and Cyber Services, and Melanie D. G. Kaplan of SmartPlanet.com that was published as Lockheed Martin on the smart grid: ‘440 million new hackable points’

In my third comment under Melanie's piece, I respond the question in a simpler and better way:

Because it involves all of it, everything up to the meter and everything behind the meter, the utility will be managing huge risks.

One key Second Generation Retailers (2GRs) job is to integrate demand to power system planning, operation and control. The result is that we have several competitive 2GRs managing their own risk after the meter and one transmission and distribution utility managing the risk before the meter, thus dividing the risk among them. Isn't that a much better proposition?


Continuing in reverse, under the heading Reliable Customer Service and Complexity Reduction, I wrote:

In the end-to-end smart grid being developed consumers will receive service from utility that is responsible for reliability, whether they like it or not. Even if you have a First Generation Retailer, they will not be participating in system operability performance.

The end-to-end value chain under the EWPC-AF is separate from transmission and distribution. Second Generation Retailers will be responsible for both prices and operability, as they will contibute to system operation performance for their customers. If you are not satisfied with a 2GR, you may go to a different one.


Finally, my first comment relative to piece was:

The smart grid has been made more complex than necessary, as a result of a system-of-systems architecting approach designed to protect most of utility system status quo profits, leaving practically intact their systems. That approach is summarized as: interoperability first and operability second. It can also be though as utility first and customers and society second.

To learn about how to simplify the architecture with the approach operability first and interoperability second, please take a look at the post "Why the IEEE Smart Grid World Forum Requires Learning About T&D Transportation Ultraquality.

José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, PhD
Creator of the Electricity Without Price Controls Architecture Framework
Systemic Consultant: Electricity
Valued IEEE Member for 39 Years

miércoles, septiembre 29, 2010

Why the IEEE Smart Grid World Forum Requires Learning About T&D Transportation Ultraquality

Turning the Tide on Outages: What are the true costs of implementing—or failing to implement—a stronger, smarter and more robust grid, asks Massoud Amin is a must read, September 29, 2010, article written by Dr. Amin himself on greentechmedia.com.


As expected, Dr. S. Massoud Amin has given us a very important lecture on the future of the electric power industry in the US. I propose that his article should be widely read by those participating in the IEEE Smart Grid World Forum (IEEE SGWF), that will take place in Brussels on the 2nd and 3rd days of December, 2010.

I will try to enhance his insights by adding the complementary issue of electricity policy. When the government initiated the restructuring of the power industry, back in the 1990s, it was because vertical integration was already obsolete. Many American states were at different stages in the process of industry restructuring, but the California crisis put the process to a halt for many of them. I will give next a not well known perspective of why that process was seriously flawed.

In a presentation I gave in March 2006, at the Academy of Science of the Dominican Republic, I quoted Eberhart Rechtin and Mark Maier, from their book “The Art of System Architecting,” by saying that “social system quality… is less a foundation than a case-by-case trade-off; that is, the quality desired depends on the system to be provided. In nuclear power generation, modern manufacturing, and manned space flight, ultraquality is an imperative. But in public health, pollution control, and safety, the level of acceptable quality is only one of many economic, social, political, and technical factors to be accommodated.”

The main flaw in the electric power policy was made by following the traditional political process as “one of many economic, social, political, and technical factors to be accommodated.” I have written many times in both blogs that the essence of the resulting erroneous policy was “economy first, system reliability second.”

As can be seen in the December 2007 article Demand Integration is NOT the Province of Politics, the policy that had already emerged through me is “system reliability first, economy second.” It is such a policy the basis for the proper restructuring of the industry into two highly cohesive systems that are lightly coupled among them: first is the priority regulated T&D Grid system, which will fulfill the requirement of the ultraquality imperative; and second is the complementary Enterprise system on a value chain of wholesale and retail markets that mutually reinforce each other.

That is how the EWPC Architecture Framework (EWPC-AF) emerges. It is also very important to learn that the ongoing smart grid process is compromising the security of the whole system by having a much larger complexity than necessary. By restructuring the industry with the EWPC-AF, the job of the Department of Homeland Security is greatly simplified. I hope that the EWPC-AF also finds its well earned place at the IEEE SGWF.


lunes, septiembre 27, 2010

Plane Crashes in the Making: What Chilean Pilots are Facing

Below you will find an explanation of why the newly appointed managers of the distribution companies EdeNorte, EdeSur y EdeEste will face a moving target, which as pilots of an obsolete planes will not be able to maneuver, as they are not prepared to handle the crisis being face in the Dominican power industry and anywhere in the world with similar situations like India.

How the Smart Grid Could Fight Off Energy Thieves in India is an important news for the Dominican Republic. In that greentechmedia.com report, that Boonsri Dickinson wrote on September 23, 2010, Dr. Rahul Tongia of the Center for Study of Science, Technology, and Policy (CSTEP) in Bangalore, India, gave his thoughts at the GridWise Global Forum.

Right now there are 9 comments under the report, three of which are mine: In the first one, I wrote:


What Dr. Tongia said “…that India shows that every country’s needs are different. You can’t just make a magic black box and use it to deliver energy—it isn’t that easy,” seems very reasonable under conventional wisdom. But, the systemic leverage of the transformation of the electric power industry is more about changing mental models or paradigms than about standards or technologies.

If the US goes ahead with their exclusive and ineffective smart grid, as described by IBM Chairmen, Samuel Palmisano, they stand to lose the great opportunities in the inclusive and effective development explained in the EWPC article Which Country Will Take the Leadership of a Global Vision for Advancing Grids for Customers?

Mariano Orellana wrote on 09/25/10 11:34 PM the following:


During a Chilean Trade Commercial Mission to New Delhi on 2004, we presented our experience done for chilean utility, that permitted decrease commercial losses from 28% to 8%. We detected how distribution was done, and proposed some solutions to local authority, but nothing was possible to be done, and losses were > 47% for a population of around 18 millions.

This is my response of 09/26/10 6:40 PM


Hi Mariano,

Taking aside the political issues, which I know interfere a lot, I respectfully disagree that Chile’s experience is of good use to India or to the Dominican Republic. I suspect that India is a lot closer to the Dominican context than when the Chilean utility reduced losses to 8%. We are in a very different world. If that is the approach that the three new Chilean managers that came to the Dominican Republic will use, they will not be able to solve our 44 year old crisis. That crisis is a moving target as explained next.

In my country, we have a very different market environment as we are exiting the Mass Market Revolution that is inherent to Chile’s experience. We are way inside the Systems Revolution and there is a paradigm shift available to develop the resources of the demand side, which is an area of vibrant open retail markets where I think Chile is now behind. I know the attempt made with the Short Law.

Chile has a great 1980s disruptive design (think of an airplane design) and great managers (think of the pilots) for the Mass Market electric power industry that operate monopoly retail markets. We need an emergent 2010s disruptive design for the Systems electric power industry and a new kind of managers that operate under retail markets competition. That is about what I wrote in my first post.




lunes, septiembre 13, 2010

Oferta de Memorando de Entendimiento para a una Coalición Sistémica Sobre la Estrategia Nacional de Desarrollo del Sector Eléctrico

Nota: los eMails mencionados no forman parte de este mensaje, que será remitido como parte de una serie de eMails ya enviados.

Estimadas y estimados dirigentes,

La oferta que el Plan Dominicano de Desarrollo Sistémico (PDDS), en vías de ser constituido, le ofrece a ustedes es la de servirles como tanque de pensamiento sistémico para la transformación de la República Dominicana. Desde el punto de vista sistémico, esta oferta necesita estar enclavada en la Estrategia Nacional de Desarrollo (END) para poder surtir sus mayores efectos en el sector eléctrico. En ese sentido, sugerimos que dicho en dicha coalición se acuerde y consigne contratar el PDDS para los estudios y asesoría que se juzguen necesarios. Esta intención se concretaría por medio de un Memorando de Entendimiento.

Esta coalición concentrará su atención en el objetivo visionario del PDDS que es el siguiente:

La creación de nuevas realidades para el desarrollo de la República Dominicana

La Estrategia Nacional de Desarrollo (END) centrada en la transformación de los sectores educativo, energía y agua, y salud, como parte del nuevo orden social, cultural, político y económico que:

emerge alrededor de cada medio siglo, por lo que supera con creces las contiendas electorales de cada cuatro años.

corresponde a la Revolución de los Sistemas que se impulsa con la nueva moneda de alto valor que son los sistemas de las tecnologías de información y las comunicaciones y que sustituye al viejo orden con la destrucción creativa de la Revolución de la Producción en Masa cuya moneda de bajo costo era el petróleo.



Resulta que el problema del sector eléctrico es muy cambiante y no solo se nutre de los nuevos adelantos tecnológicos y del cambio de las prioridades de la gente, sino que principalmente ocurre en un momento histórico sin igual en que la Revolución de la Producción en Masa se desvanece para ser reemplazada por la Revolución de los Sistemas. Este es un cambio mayor que pasa de lo que fue el petróleo como insumo de bajo costo a las tecnologías de la información y las telecomunicaciones como producto para la creación de alto valor. Un ejemplo convincente del cambio transformador que está sucediendo en el país se puede ver en que las telecomunicaciones son ya el principal motor de nuestra economía. No obstante, el problema de las restricciones de corto plazo impuestas como parte del acuerdo con el FMI es que suponen grosso modo que el problema eléctrico sigue siendo pensado como parte de la Producción en Masa, que se sustenta con el modelo chileno, y por eso recurren por segunda vez a gerentes expertos que ya resolvieron ese viejo problema de gerencia, cuando lo que realmente se necesita es un fuerte liderazgo para transformar el sector.

El contexto trivial de dicho pacto puede verse muy bien en el editorial del periódico Hoy, del 13 de septiembre de 2010, Crisis eléctrica y ejercicio de prueba y error, que resume el calvario que hemos padecido, según dicen, en los últimos 44 años. Pero, la principal razón no trivial del pacto y porqué no se resuelve la crisis es eminentemente cultural y reside en el pensamiento mecánico que se adueñado de la sociedad y parece ser que también de los organismos multilaterales. Para salir de la crisis en el referido pacto se necesita estar dispuesto a una transformación cultural para poder responder satisfactoriamente la pregunta ¿Se Deberá Nuestro Bajo Desarrollo a la Tiranía de las (Des)Organizaciones Antisistémicas que Disponemos? (ver el mensaje más abajo) A continuación, empleando hallazgos recientes daremos algunos apuntes adicionales a los que hemos enviado anteriormente sobre como terminar de una vez por todas dicho calvario y llevar el sector a los primeros lugares del Foro Económico Mundial.

El caso del emprendedurismo, que ANJE ha estado promoviendo, el mes pasado cobró relevancia con el estudio Who Creates Jobs? Small vs. Large vs. Young realizado por John C. Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, and Javier Miranda, que refina la creencia generalizada de que las PYMES generan más empleos que las empresas grandes. El estudio divide las PYMES en nuevas y viejas, siendo los emprendedurismos nuevos los que realmente generan la gran mayoría de los empleos. Mi interpretación del estudio, a la luz del proceso de grandes cambios arriba mencionado, es que es evidente que los nuevos negocios sean los que generen la mayoría de los empleos. Esta reinterpretación sistémica del estudio cobra mucha vigencia para la Estrategia Nacional de Desarrollo (END) a la luz del Informe del Foro Económico Mundial (FEM). En dos párrafos de su columna GV.-Global y variable, en Diario Libre, del 13 de septiembre, de 2010, Gustavo Volmar usa el informe del FEM para tratar el asunto Compitiendo con Centroamérica, diciendo:


Costa Rica, que ocupa el lugar 56, nos aventaja en diez de los doce criterios de evaluación. Sólo en tamaño del mercado y entorno macroeconómico la superamos. Especialmente abismal es la diferencia en salud y educación primaria (22 ellos y 107 nosotros), innovación (35 y 118), educación superior y entrenamiento (43 y 99), eficiencia del mercado de productos (48 y 109) y en las instituciones (51 y 117)

La RD tuvo la "distinción" de recibir la peor calificación del mundo (lugar 139) en cuanto a favoritismo en las decisiones de funcionarios gubernamentales, la segunda peor (138) respecto del desperdicio de gastos públicos, y la tercera peor (137) en la calidad de la educación primaria.

Una excelente respuesta a la pregunta ¿Se Deberá Nuestro Bajo Desarrollo a la Tiranía de las (Des)Organizaciones Antisistémicas que Disponemos? que plantea la necesidad de redefinir la END con el PDDS se sintetiza en los aspectos culturales con “La RD tuvo la ‘distinción’ de recibir la peor calificación del mundo (lugar 139) en cuanto a favoritismo en las decisiones de funcionarios gubernamentales, la segunda peor (138) respecto del desperdicio de gastos públicos.” Debe quedar muy clara la reorientación que necesitamos en la END para impulsar la innovación en la Revolución de los Sistemas con una estrategia de emprendedurismo concentrada en salud, educación y electricidad.

Es importante destacar que el problema de la electricidad no ha devenido en un problema esencialmente institucional que surgió luego de la capitalización. Es totalmente a la inversa, el grave problema institucional, como parte de la razón cultural, fue el que precisamente llevó a una reforma antisistémica del sector, que induce al mayor desperdicio de gastos públicos y que impide a nombre de la institucionalidad que se reestructure el sector para abrirlo a la innovación. Es así como encaja el eMail enviado “La Respuesta al Desempeño Antisistémico de las Edes y la Amenaza de la Profundización de la Crisis Económica Global,” que sigue a continuación.

miércoles, septiembre 01, 2010

A Message to US Senator Harry Reid About a Minimalist Energy Bill

Federal and state governments should take the leadership to initiate the transformation of the electric power industry, instead of developing individual symptomatic energy policies, for example, on energy efficiency, on the smart grid, and on Feed-In Tariffs, that are easily water dawn by the powerful energy industry lobby. The shared vision can enacted as a fundamental minimalist, holistic and emergent energy policy, based on the Electricity Without Price Controls Architecture Framework (EWPC-AF). Such policy will reduce the likelihood of The Third Depression by attracting private funding and creating green jobs from coast to coast.

A Message to US Senator Harry Reid About a Minimalist Energy Bill

By José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D.
Creator of the EWPC-AF
Systemic Consultant: Electricity

First posted in the GMH Blog, on September 1st 2010.

Copyright © 2010 José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio. All rights reserved. No part of this article may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, without written permission from José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio. This article is an unedited, an uncorrected, draft material of The EWPC Textbook. Please write to javs@ieee.org to contact the author for any kind of engagement.

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Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

Honorable Senator,

With all due respect, this article is written to respond the greentechmedia.com news report Harry Reid Touts Green Jobs From Coast to Coast: State energy efficiency policies will attract private funding and create jobs in clean tech, by Boonsri Dickinson. In addition, it also responds to the Technology Review post Energy Bill Consigned to Lame Duck Session: Senator Reid hopes to garner votes for a limited energy bill after the elections. But cap and trade is out of the picture, by Kevin Bullis. Both were posted on August 31, 2010.

As you are aware, the US and the world are facing a systemic crisis in the energy industry. I will concentrate on the electric power industry, which is where most of the energy policy leverage resides. To face that systemic crisis, as a way out to what Novel Price winner and New York Time columnist Paul Krugman has envisioned as The Third Depression, I have suggested that it requires an integral fundamental energy policy to initiate the transformation of the power industry. That is the way to face the powerful (pun intended) power industry lobby that opposes the creative destruction of the industry.

To neutralize that lobby, we need to concentrate the attention, not on utility executives, but on utility investors. Please take a look at Answering “What Energy Business Are You In?” As the Way Out of The Third Depression, Whose summary and conclusion says:


During a similar time of great change, railroads and utilities have defined their business incorrectly, by ignoring several insights, like the one Theodore Levitt gave us in his 1960’s Marketing Myopia manifesto. A quote on the 1982 book Megatrends explains utility investors why the attempt to keep a monopoly on the customer relationship, with an ineffective old economy Big-Bang Advanced Metering Infrastructure will further extend the uneconomic overexpansion of the resources of the supply side. To reduce the odds of the return of the depression, we need policies for the new economy, like power industry transformation and boring banking, which mutually reinforce each other with the coming communications’ boom to enable innovative value creation and long term jobs.

I conclude that any forward looking utility savvy investors, based on the above insights, will now be able to answer without distractions the question “What business are you in,” as either the T&D Grid or the Enterprise side of the EWPC-AF. Hence, I further predict that the opposition of state governments and the special interest utility lobby that aims to disallow the emerging creative destruction of the power industry will fade, in order to decrease the likelihood of The Third Depression.


That fundamental approach substitutes symptomatic energy policies, by integrating those specific cross-cutting issues to mutually reinforce each other. Three symptomatic policies in different stages of development are for the smart grid, for energy efficiency, for Feed-in Tariffs. In each of these energy policies, I will show specific examples on how the electric power lobby has interfered, is interfering, and will interfere with progress.

In the first example, the promoters of the state energy efficiency policies might be able to show that by developing their project to the fullest extent, the policy suggested will reduce electric power on the demand side, by say 40% in buildings, other things being equal. However, the supply side of the electricity market will show the overexpansion, mentioned above, that has been hidden to the public by keeping too long the obsolete Investor Owned Utilities Architecture Framework based energy policy. It should be clear that the powerful power industry lobby is going to fight the project.

The second example, is introduced through the EWPC post Handling Risk Management and Living System Smart Grid Stillborn Threats, that shows how the power industry lobby already exerted its power (also pun intended) on the architecture of the electric power industry by developing a system-of-systems approach that keeps their status quo intact. It is only now that the problems of the intervention are surfacing as a threat to the smart grid.

The third and last example can be seen in the EWPC post “Forget Monopoly Feed-In-Tariffs to Start Learning About Competitive Buy-Back Spot Prices, that“completely supersedes the http://www.greentechmedia.com/ article Feed-In Tariffs Can Spur Disruptive Growth: California is studying a new incentive that could grow renewables—and change everything about the state’s energy supply in the process.” The powerful electric power industry lobby is already at work.

Best regards,

José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D. - LinkedIn

lunes, agosto 30, 2010

Should the Smart Grid be a Technological Project to Address a Challenge Faced by Utility Executives?


Following the advice of the great designer Don Norman, the answer is NO, as the most difficult social, organizational, and cultural aspects, were not considered in its explicit architecture act. An emerging revolution can be organized to shifting the whole power industry with the Electricity Without Price Controls Architecture Framework, in which those difficult living system aspects have been explicitly considered.

Should the Smart Grid be a Technological Project to Address a Challenge Faced by Utility Executives?

By José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D.

Creator of the EWPC-AF
Systemic Consultant: Electricity

First posted in the GMH Blog, on August 30th 2010.

Copyright © 2010 José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio. All rights reserved. No part of this article may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, without written permission from José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio. This article is an unedited, an uncorrected, draft material of The EWPC Textbook. Please write to javs@ieee.org to contact the author for any kind of engagement.

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"... technology is the easy part to change. The difficult aspects are social, organizational, and cultural." Donald Norman, "The Invisible Computer," Cambridge, Massachusetts, MIT Press 1988. That old quote by Don applies right on the Smart Grid growing difficulties, as a result of “The Integrated Energy and Communication Systems Architecture (IECSA)” design work.

Under the title “THE NEED FOR AN INDUSTRY ARCHITECTURE,” on page 2-1 of the final release of IECSA Volume I, it is written that “There is a two-part answer to the question, “Why it is necessary to develop an industry architecture?’ First, it must be understood that the challenge facing utility executives is keeping the lights on while also enhancing the value of services to consumer… The second, and more powerful argument, is that the only way to address the challenge utility executives face is to go back to basics, understand why the current system doesn’t perform as needed, and then to design interoperability into the system from the ground up.”

While having a consumer portal for “…enhancing the value of services to consumer…,” It is easy to see that the industry architecture “… must be understood that the challenge facing utility executives…” and “… that the only way to address the challenge utility executives face…” is technological. It is important to know that the consumer portal was just a part (see page 5-3) that could “be directly fed into the project.” In sum, the smart grid is a technological project to address the challenge utility executives’ face. To make things a lot worst, according to Table 7 (page 7-6), the living system aspects of the “Industry Organizational Change,” is one the “Areas beyond the scope of IECSA.” No wonder the smart grid is facing growing opposition.

To be successful, the emerging electricity revolution requires a deep and fresh understanding of how parts and wholes are interrelated in the living system of the power industry. As explained in the book "Presence: human purpose and the field of the future," written by Peter Senge, C. Otto Sharmer, Joseph Jaworski and Betty Sue Flowers, “Unlike machines, living systems, such as your body or a tree, create themselves. They are not mere assemblages of their parts but are continually growing and changing along with their elements.”

As a result of the discussion about the meaning highly important concept “shifting the whole,” the book authors discovered the new systems axiom “What is most systemic is most local.” After that discovery, they wrote that "The deepest systems we enact are woven into the fabric of everyday life, down to the most minute detail... This is so important for us to understand. We, every one of us, may be able to change the world, but only as we experience more and more of the whole in the present..."

When people quote that "The late Speaker of the House Tip O'Neill once posited that 'all politics is local,'" they are giving an instance of that axiom. I have long posited that the global power industry is undergoing a great systemic crisis, as I have been living in, the Dominican Republic, one of the places where this crisis has been and still is greatest. The smart grid based on the EWPC-AF is trying to emerged, but the political lobby does not allow the creative destruction to operate.

The minimalist architecture, holistic and emergent EWPC-AF is the result of seeing the emerging whole of the power industry. It has a unifying global vision based on an explicit architecture act that integrates cross-cutting issues for global energy policy, while letting efficient and effective local acts grow and change.

Having to pay one half of every dollar per kWh on top of the electricity bill, the US is also a clear representative of the global great systemic crisis. When Phil Carson writes "today's utilities often carry a legacy of mistrust derived from being the only game in town accustomed to dictating interactions with 'ratepayers'... ," in his article Smart Grid Is Local, Too, Phil has placed that mistrust at the center of the systemic crisis and the great local instance of the axiom.

Most local solutions can be found in the global scope EWPC post The New California Capitalist Model to Initiate the Transformation of the Global Power Industry, which responds to challenge set 2 weeks ago by Kate Rowland. Most other local solution can also be found in the global scope EWPC post 2 Smart Grid Lessons Learned: Increasing Stimulus Grant was Mistaken. Utilities Must be restructured, that gives Boulder, Colorado, one of the greatest opportunities to start the mentioned transformation.

miércoles, agosto 25, 2010

What Impact on Utilities Investors May Have a Reduction of 30 to 70 Percent in Home Energy Use?

Katherine Tweed reported on greentechenterprise, on August 24, 2010, that a General Electric Partnership Could Slash Home Energy Use by 70 Percent. She adds that "GE is part of a pilot project to show that homes can drastically cut their energy use with retrofits."
The impact on utilities investors is explained in the conclusion of the EWPC article Answering “What Energy Business Are You In?” As the Way Out of The Third Depression, that says "
... that any forward looking utility savvy investors, based on the above insights, will now be able to answer without distractions the question “What business are you in,” as either the T&D Grid or the Enterprise side of the EWPC-AF. Hence, I further predict that the opposition of state governments and the special interest utility lobby that aims to disallow the emerging creative destruction of the power industry will fade, in order to decrease the likelihood of The Third Depression."

lunes, agosto 23, 2010

Answering “What Energy Business Are You In?” As the Way Out of The Third Depression

During a similar time of great change, railroads and utilities have defined their business incorrectly, by ignoring several insights, like the one Theodore Levitt gave us in his 1960’s Marketing Myopia manifesto. A quote on the 1982 book Megatrends explains utility investors why the attempt to keep a monopoly on the customer relationship, with an ineffective old economy Big-Bang Advanced Metering Infrastructure will further extend the uneconomic overexpansion of the resources of the supply side. To reduce the odds of the return of the depression, we need policies for the new economy, like power industry transformation and boring banking, which mutually reinforce each other with the coming communications’ boom to enable innovative value creation and long term jobs.

Answering “What Energy Business Are You In?” As the Way Out of The Third Depression

By José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D.
Creator of the EWPC-AF
Systemic Consultant: Electricity

First posted in the GMH Blog, on August 23rd 2010.

Copyright © 2010 José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio. All rights reserved. No part of this article may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, without written permission from José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio. This article is an unedited, an uncorrected, draft material of The EWPC Textbook. Please write to javs@ieee.org to contact the author for any kind of engagement.

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· Campaign for Fair Electricity Rates (34)


João Batista Gomes has added the very interesting and timely discussion in two LinkedIn groups with the paradox “The only way utility companies will move toward a "Smart Grid" model (with own money), is if they are allowed to charge more money to deliver less power?” I claim that there is another way out.

It is easy to see from that paradox how the utilities mindset has led as a de-facto policy to an uneconomic overexpansion on the supply side that keeps the demand side highly undeveloped. The way out of that broken business paradox in which utility investors are involved was explained by Theodore Levitt in the July-August 1960 issue of the Harvard Business Review’s article (called a manifesto in HBR site) "Marketing Myopia."

To start to show the way out, I have adapted Levitt’s example on the situation that the railroads business faced after The Great Depression to the situation that utilities will face with the emergence of the Smart Grid (whose main value creating opportunities are in the development of the demand side) under The Third Depression (see below) in the making.

The utilities did not stop growing because the need for energy based services (light, air conditioning, refrigeration, etc.) declined. That grew. The retail side of utilities are in trouble today not because that need was filled by others (competitive retailers, energy services companies, energy management companies, solar panel vendors, demand side energy efficiency suppliers, demand response companies, battery manufacturers) but because they could not be filled by the utilities themselves. They let others take customers away from them because they assumed themselves to be in the utility business rather than the energy based services business. The reason they defined their industry incorrectly was that they were utility oriented instead of services oriented; they were product oriented instead of customer oriented...

In addition, the idea of trying to keep the ownership of the relationship of all of the retail customers through the ownership of an ineffective old economy Big-Bang Advanced Metering Infrastructure is bound to extend the duration of the uneconomic overexpansion of the supply side that at some point will lead to a crash. That insight can be foreseen as we make a parallel with the crash for overexpansion in the railroad industry during The Long Depression at the end of the XIX Century, which highlights the reality versus illusion as a result of the big change being experienced in the business environment.

John Naisbitt's 1982 Megatrends, explains under the section "Law of the Situation: the railroads did not understand," the illusion utilities and state regulators are in, with the quote of Walter B. Wriston, chairman of Citicorp, who in 1981 said:

The philosophy of the divine right of kings died hundreds of years ago, but not, it seems, the divine right of inherited markets. Some people still believe there's a divine dispensation that their markets are theirs - and no one else's
- now and forevermore. It is an old dream that dies hard, yet no businessman in a free society can control a market when the customers decide to go somewhere else. All the king's horses and all the king's man are helpless in the face of a better product. Our commercial history is filled with examples of companies that failed to change in a changing world, and became tombstones in the corporate graveyard.


Now referring to what happen after the Great Depression, in The New York Times of April 10, 2009 article "Making Banking Boring," the Novel Prize winner and Op-Ed Columnist PAUL KRUGMAN wrote, among other things, it is: “Strange to say, this era of boring banking was also an era of spectacular economic progress for most Americans.” Carlota Pérez, a Venezuelan, researcher, lecturer, and author of the book Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital, has a self consistent explanation that runs as follows: the shift from financial capital to production capital [in which “boring”] financial capital takes on its traditional role, has happened after the depressions ends, in each one of the past 5 technological revolutions, after the old economy loses to the new economy, and a new golden age starts.

Increasing the leverage of the insights from the report "The Coming Communications Boom?: Jobs, Innovation and Countercyclical Regulatory Policy," written by Michael Mandel, I argue that initiating the transformation of the power industry and "Making Banking Boring" will come as the power industry and communication industries mutually reinforcing each other, through forward looking policy decisions that will create a new economy golden age boom, with mores jobs, innovations, helping us avoid altogether The Third Depression or at least substantially reducing its negative impact.

To place the needed sense of urgency to the emergent way of a customer oriented electricity business, please take a look at the EWPC post The New California Capitalist Model to Initiate the Transformation of the Global Power Industry, which responds to a challenge set byKate Rowland in her Intelligent Utility article Smart meter reflux continues. The challenge is based on a quote made by Peter Darbee, CEO and president of PG&E Corporation, which says:

As we go forward, I think the stakes are very great because once again, California is in the position to serve as the model for the rest of the United States when the United States has said it's not ready to move forward. And the challenge that we have is, are we going to be a good model, or a bad model, or an indifferent model.
All of the above explanations that leads to the new way are well in accordance with the EWPC article Three Smart Grid Predictions for Initiating the Global Power Industry Transformation, whose summary offers:

Prediction #1: Recognizing the emerging global power industry in the complete context around the Intelligent Utility Inside article Baltimore G&E: AMI Comeback? and that of this EWPC article, the Maryland PSC “No so fast” decision on the BGE proposal is highly likely the 1st domino of the chain reaction that is going to start “knocking over the next” state regulator’s utility case, “which upsets the next one, and so on.”

Prediction #2: Rethinking the old utility compact with an obligation to serve to an emergent compact on the T&D Grid side of the EWPC-AF with an obligation to deliver, the end-to-end “smart grid” will play out as part of the Enterprise side of the EWPC-AF.

Prediction #3: Repositioning the utilities that missed the opportunities to learn the lessons of other industries is bound to be in a restricted T&D Grid space that will sooner or later be "painfully consolidated."

I conclude that any forward looking utility savvy investors, based on the above insights, will now be able to answer without distractions the question “What business are you in,” as either the T&D Grid or the Enterprise side of the EWPC-AF. Hence, I further predict that the opposition of state governments and the special interest utility lobby that aims to disallow the emerging creative destruction of the power industry will fade, in order to decrease the likelihood of The Third Depression.