Consulting engineer on systems architecting
A Dominican servant-leader and global citizen
January 17, 2015
Please consider this text as an integral extension of the blog post Can 10 questions above politics help forecast a new world order in 2015? Version 0.0, which, for all practical purposes, after its 5 updates, can now be considered Version 1.0. In what follows, all references to Decalogue are meant to come from that blog post.
The Systemic Civilization is reconfirmed by curating @jhagel's post The Dark Side of Technology http://t.co/V56EyIajzA #EuropeINOnce again I place myself on top of the shoulders of several giants. This time, Peter Drucker, Carlota Pérez, Eamonn Kelly and John Hagel III. I do it to integrate and harmonize their contributions to support the synthesis of the Systemic Civilization, as the huge leadership space available to humanity where the magic can happen after the speech act of a Global Declaration of Interdependence. The greatest importance of that speech act today is that while I wrote that the Decalogue was above politics, it can be seen that they are also in fact above the ethnic and religious war movements the world is experiencing today, in which the dark side of technology is leading us to the 2nd Middle Ages, instead of the bright side where said magic happen to lead us into a Golden Age.
— Jose A Vanderhorst S (@gmh_upsa) January 17, 2015
A reconfirmation of the existence of the systemic civilization emerges by curating the very valuable blog post The Dark Side of Technology, where John wrote that:
But here’s the kicker. This digital technology infrastructure is not stabilizing. We’ve had plenty of technology disruptions throughout history – the steam engine, electricity, the telephone, just to name some. But, as Carlotta Perez has shown, all of these disruptions followed a common pattern. They began with a burst of innovation at the technology level, but then quickly stabilized with only incremental performance improvements afterwards. That in turn led to a burst of innovation at the infrastructure level, figuring out how to most effectively organize and deliver the value of this technology to business and society. But then that too rapidly stabilized so we could then figure out how to most effectively harness this technology."
Our digital technology infrastructure is unprecedented in human history. It’s not stabilizing. The core technology components – computing, storage and bandwidth – are continuing to improve in price/performance at accelerating rates and the best scientists and technologists suggest that this exponential pace will not slow down in the foreseeable future.”
And the power and scope of impact of these technologies is amplified by their interaction with each other and their ability to accelerate the performance improvement of an expanding array of other technologies, ranging from genomics to nanotechnology...”John clearly explains that something other than a technological revolution that Carlota researched is at work. However, as can be seen next, that something is the emergence of a civilization, based on an Information Revolution, in a pattern being repeated of a much larger time-frame as those of technological revolutions. To reconfirm the idea of the emergence of the systemic civilization, which actually has the precedent of the industrial civilization, briefly writing about question 3 of the Decalogue, I told:
This is one of Kelly’s convictions; '… we may currently be witnessing nothing less than the significant unraveling of much that we have come to take for granted over the last five centuries .” In fact, Peter Drucker confirms Kelly’s conviction that “Everybody today believes that the present Information Revolution is unprecedented… These beliefs are simply nonsense .”As can also be seen in the Decalogue, I wrote:
Mr. Denning has like me a lot of respect on the high value of the research done by Carlota Pérez on technological revolutions. One important hint emerges from the profound philosophic change: the independence that supported the unlimited world of the industrial civilization to the interdependence that’s required to support an emergent civilization, which I have suggested as the systemic civilization [10, 11, 13, 15, 16].In reference , where I offered a conjecture, at the end of 2013, on the emergence of the systemic civilization, I had already curated Carlota's research as follows:
This author now understands that the first 4 revolutions defined the industrial civilization which corresponds to Alvin Toffler’s 2nd Wave. Recently professor Pérez responded to a comment that the 5th revolution might be the first revolution of the next civilization, which fits very well with Alvin Toffler's 3rd Wave.”We can now easily reinterpret, after the fact, that during each of those four technological revolutions of the industrial civilization, the printing press technologies were evolving without stabilizing either. In addition, Carlota had guessed the anticipation a 6th technological revolution with, for example, biotech, nanotech, bioelectronics and new materials, that can now be reinterpreted as part of the 2nd technological revolution of the Systemic Civilization.
The impact of the 4th Information Revolution on the emergence of the first the systemic civilization is to start with a new world order in accordance with its 1st technological revolution. As can be seen in the Decalogue:
Fifth update: John Hagel III has written the timely contribution The Big Shift in Strategy - Part 2, which seems to be valuable to help us reach the vision of a new world order where the magic happens. Can the strategy of trajectory that strongly fits such vision start with the action in 2015 of the Declaration of Interdependence by Eurozone's leaders that correspond to question number 5?
Is this how the above strategy of trajectory will fits the 5 elements that can help make it successful and enabling version 1.0? This is my take...[please go to the Decalogue to see it.]