domingo, febrero 28, 2016

To Fareed Zakaria, thanks! But, Yeats is still right on

Fareed Zakaria has given us a very important contribution today under Fareed's Take, in his program GPS. His contribution can be read in his Washington post's article In the West, the political center holds — but barely.

Peter Senge - Systems-Intelligence or Systems-Ignorance? from Martin Rausch on Vimeo.

The center can't hold because they lack the required leadership to shift the whole, as they continue to operate under the Groupthink consensus of the primacy of the parts, when they should do it with an action oriented scientific attitude under the primacy of the whole. As an example of the meaning of "shifting the whole," please consider the August 2010 blog post Should the Smart Grid be a Technological Project to Address a Challenge Faced by Utility Executives?, whose summary says:
Following the advice of the great designer Don Norman, the answer is NO, as the most difficult social, organizational, and cultural aspects, were not considered in its explicit architecture act. An emerging revolution can be organized to shifting the whole power industry with the Electricity Without Price Controls Architecture Framework, in which those difficult living system aspects have been explicitly considered.
As an electrical engineer that have grown to get involved in systems architecting by increase the scope of problems, I found that Fareed's most important contribution is in W.B. Yeats’s famous poem. That poem tells us of a time similar to the one we are facing, which is about a technological revolution. But, in my self-financed research this is not just about a technological revolution, it is also an information revolution, the 4th according to the late Peter Drucker, with the 3rd as a result of the printing press.

It was in great part of the third information revolution (although it took many decades) that enabled the industrial civilization displaced the agricultural civilization, which Alvin Toffler discused as the 1st and 2nd waves in his book The Third Wave. Those three waves are about dependence, independence and interdependence, respectively.

Trying to make the story short, please consider the December 2015 blog post As The Great Decoupling is driven by TNA anti-systems, What about TAA in systemic civilization?, which has its "First update. Is Bill Gates’ darker side ‘Energy Miracle,’ a brighter side institutional innovation under Great Capitalism?" It is those institutional innovations that consider the "difficult social, organizational, and cultural aspects" needed for the brighter side. I hope, with all due respects, that Mr. Gates (which was also in GPS today) take a look at it.


jueves, febrero 25, 2016

Diario Libre AM. ¿Debo votar o no?


AM - ELECCIONES 2016 - 24 FEB 2016, 12:00 AM

¿Debo votar o no?

ADRIANO MIGUEL TEJADA

Original Diario Libre AM. ¿Debo votar o no?


El otro día se me acercó un joven, primer votante, y me disparó la pregunta del millón: ¿ante lo que estoy viendo, en la forma en que se comportan los partidos y por el camino que marcha nuestra sociedad, debo votar o no en las próximas elecciones?

Estoy seguro de que la misma pregunta se la están haciendo muchas personas en el país.

Técnicamente, las elecciones son mecanismos para impulsar programas de desarrollo, para renovar liderazgos y para consolidar un clima en que florezca la libertad y un modo de vida tolerante, democrático.

Es evidente que en nuestro país el cambio en los liderazgos ha traído cambios importantes, incluso la posibilidad incruenta de cambiar el propio liderazgo.

En ese sentido, votar es importante.

El voto ayuda también a consolidar un clima de libertades, pero para ello hay que elegir políticos responsables, mejor dicho, hay que elegir estadistas, es decir, personas que piensen más allá de la próxima elección.

Es evidente, sin embargo, que para las próximas elecciones el comportamiento de los partidos y de los líderes va dejando mucho que desear. Votar entre un PLD inamovible, que tiene las mismas caras en el poder por más de 20 años, y una oposición que no se pone de acuerdo ni para escoger un candidato a alcalde, el panorama no es muy alentador.

Pero le dije: debes votar, ya sea como castigo o como premio y, si deseas, vota sólo por los candidatos que te parezcan mejores. Así aportarás a la solución y no al problema.

atejada@diariolibre.com


yyy

Diario Libre AM. Iniciativas creadoras

AM - 22 FEB 2016, 12:00 AM

ADRIANO MIGUEL TEJADA

Original Diario Libre AM. Iniciativas creadoras

Quizás el problema más grande que tiene el país es que no hay nadie pensando a largo plazo sobre los grandes temas nacionales.

El inmediatismo nos ha robado el futuro.

Se dirá que esa es labor del Gobierno, pero las administraciones generalmente no ven más allá del período que les toca.

Es a la sociedad, a los que lideran los diferentes sectores, a quienes corresponde tender una mirada de más alcance sobre los problemas nacionales.

Los ejemplos de temas a resolver sobran: el modelo económico; qué tipo de producción queremos; qué hacer con nuestras ciudades; con el desarrollo regional; con la autonomía municipal; con la salud, la educación... y los temas se van al infinito.

No se trata de firmar pactos, que siempre terminan dominados por los “intereses creados”, sino de trazar rutas, de señalar metas que sean adoptadas por los sectores involucrados para todos remar en la misma dirección.

El modelo de franquicias, por ejemplo, no se ha desarrollado por una política específica ni acuerdo de sectores. Alguien vio el potencial y los demás siguieron. De lo que se trata es de abrir caminos y, de ese modo, demostrar las potencialidades de una actividad.

Este país es inmensamente rico: lo quiebran cada cuatro años y sigue adelante. ¿Por qué no utilizar esa riqueza y ese potencial en buenas inversiones, en modelos factibles aceptados por todos?

Eso es lo que nos hace falta. No es más gobierno. Es más iniciativa creadora y más sentido de futuro.

atejada@diariolibre.com

miércoles, febrero 24, 2016

Another EWPC Discovery II

EWPC is a high leverage intervention of the power industry as can be seen in the article Another EWPC Discovery. The article was written after the CMU Electricity Industry Center showed that restructuring is a low leverage system intervention. To respond comments related to the discovery, copied below, more detail is given to show how EWPC is a high level intervention. 

I will respond in reverse order,

Len,

Len Gould: “'The Apt study result is certainly no surprise to me." But it happens that the article in the link is not the article referenced by Don.

Readers should hit the links found by “googling” IMEUC to make their own conclusions. That is going to turn out in a good boomerang hint!

Agree! Restructuring “. . .was CLEARLY designed only to benefit large industrial customers.”

Disagree on access! EWPC customers will have access to highly competitive retail markets. Most small customers everywhere access indirectly the wholesale markets by accessing retail markets. The economic reasons are most obvious and well understood by businesspeople.

Rafael,

From what you wrote, I understand that you are not concerned with the small customers that remain under price controls all over the place and that, believe it or not, are the source of a lot of risk management potential at much lower costs than most large customers. All customers large and small should be considered. When one does that, Brazil becomes a candidate for EWPC development. I will put your country back into the BRIC EWPC candidates.

Don,

The CMU Electricity Industry Center working paper can be said to have found that the low leverage restructuring interventions are a customer rip-off. Incremental improvements in generation are good, but can no longer be the source of a high leverage. In addition, those system interventions are restricted to states of the US, provinces of Canada, or countries of Europe. Restricting risk management on the supply side is very inefficient. Risk needs to be managed also at the demand side aiming to produce the best risk management mix, among customers, 2GRs and generators.

As provided by the EWPC market architecture paradigm, the source of a high leverage system intervention can only come from increasing returns by developing business model innovations, based on the third industrial revolution, which can initially be deployed in the larger federal market of the US, the whole of Canada, and the whole electricity market of the European Union or maybe surprisingly in one of the BRIC countries.

I am sorry to say that no numbers can be given before the innovations are developed. Recall that “EWPC is very robust, because it is generation and storage technology neutral, from the supply side and the demand side. Markets should be allowed to determine what technologies will have the best chances, as it is impossible to predict the best technologies.” What is needed is to level the playing field by taking down the barriers for the development of the resources of the demand side, so that risk can be managed in the best way.

Highly Suggested readings on the high leverage intervention:





Don Giegler
3.10.08
"But, no data is needed."Sounds like even greater risk, Jose. Looks like those liberated customers will be buying some pretty expensive kilowatt-hours. That is, if any are available!

Len Gould
3.10.08
The Apt study result is certainly no surprise to me. It is an obvious outcome of the crippled pseudo-free-market system implemented in every jurisdiction i kwno of which has tried de-regulation. That system was CLEARLY designed only to benefit large industrial customers.I insist that IF the price I pay for electricity is to be determined in an unregulated market THEN I MUST HAVE ACCESS TO THAT MARKET MYSELF!! EWPC doesn't provide that, nor does the identical system currently operating in Ontario. (comperirive generation, regulated T&D, competitive retailers free to install as much load management as they are willing) Only IMEUC can provide that. Note that I did NOT say that IMEUC was my preference, see the IF which starts this paragraph.

Rafael Herzberg
3.10.08
Very interesting discussions have been generated by this article. I would like to suggest 2 comments.1st) ENERGY PRICE CONTROLS
For decades now there are no price controls in fact. Even if we consider geographical areas, where regulators determine electric energy prices. In my consulting practice for industrial, commercial and institutional energy users it is fair to say that they are constantly monitoring energy prices and accordingly shifting to the most economical energy package. Let me give 3 examples:
From oil to electricity
A few years ago a major multi national company operating in the agro business sector accepted my suggestion to change from a fuel oil boiler to an electric boiler because at that specific point in time it was cheaper, due to available non-firm electric energy for that purpose. This energy user is a regulated one.
From electricity to oil
On-peak hours for the corporate world is far more expensive that off-peak. Depending on the regulations (time of use rates) using on site diesel gen sets are cheaper. Peaking power generation has become a very popular arrangement. A major IT company accepted this concept and is using for years now their diesel gen sets during on-peak hours, These gen sets were originally for emergences now they are a cost reduction tool! On-peak rates are twice the cost of the diesel gen set costs (fuel + operations + maintenance).
Cogeneration
As opposed to purchasing electric energy from the public grid to run a plant and fuel to run boilers and other thermal loads, developing a cogen project is a way to reduce costs.
These examples are very popular among corporate energy users around the globe - show a very interesting and intriguing reality:
* The end user´s perception is that regulators may set up rates but ultimately it is the energy user who decides what to pay because the name of the game is comparison!
* Regulators are not perfect. The may set up rates too high or too low. If it is a too high scenario energy users will find better options (on-site generation for instance) if it is too low they will replace their energy sources for electricity. If they are setting the rates exactly at the same price as the market would, these regulators would not be needed at all!
2nd) ENERGY PRICES
The current model (regulated or de-regulated) is not properly addressing the global warming challenge. It s fair to say that energy prices are inelastic. They have been for decades or even centuries! If we are to face the global warming threat we must find a new mechanism. The purpose of the tax on weight is to signalize a new pattern. Energy costs are small compared to most products and services. Even at US$ 100/barrel energy is still a minor cost for most products and services.
Tax on weight would signalize a new approach to designing products and services. Without this tax why should the supply side try to come up with energy efficient products? Or dou you expect that most of us would choose a better efficiency car just because we are concerned about the global waring threat?

Len Gould
3.10.08
I've also may have finally figured out the motive for all Jose Antonio's repetitive and largely erroneous posts.. If one googles "IMEUC", the first twenty results include 19 entries where he posts INCORRECT criticism's of it.Rats!!

Len Gould
3.10.08
Article referenced by Don above - Rethinking Electricity Deregulation - Lester Lave, Seth Blumsack, Jay AptOn telling slide near the end, shows that of all PUC comissioners, 53% are lawyers and only 7% are businessmen. That sets my base objection to BAU regulation.




yyy

Power Markets Essential Requirements - II


Mission accomplished!!! This are comments received and responded under the article Power Markets Essential Requirements. Readers will find that the two assertions questioned, are certainly true:  IMEUC has NO Ultraquality, and NO Demand Integration to power system planning, operation and control. Ultraquality is a system characteristic.The incentive system is spelled out clearly. While IMEUC is technology dependent, EWPC is technology neutral. A standard meter is needed for 2GR to develop their business model innovations. Nothing else is needed to reconfirm the winner in the market vs. market competition, this time based on the essential requirements: retail competition with active demand and ultraquality transportation.


Len Gould
3.6.08
Jose Antonio: "Since IMEUC has NO Retail Competition nor Ultraquality, and thus NO Demand Integration to power system planning, operation and control, it is just an incomplete and unfeasible proposition."Two FALSE assertions in one sentence (you're improving).
1) IMEUC makes no statement about ultraquality relative T&D, and I can see no reason why it should or why EWPC does. What is the benefit? That decision belongs with each individual ultimate client of a particular regional T&D system. What may make sense regarding T&D reliability in New York city may not make sense in rural Pakistan. Designs which make sense for an Apollo moon rocket may not make sense for a low-volume-production agricultural tractor. Quality has to fit the market with consideration of all factors.
2) IMEUC depends HEAVILY on demand integration to manage quality of service to customers, that is the core of its entire design. Smart grid technology is integrated with a careful market design to allow realtime price to optionally substitute for your absolutely gold-plated T&D system when and if it provides much lower cost. The balance is continually adjusted by market forces.
Several others not worth covering.
Finally, how about giving us the details of what the market structure is which the EWPC 2GR retailers operate in? What specifically sets up their incentive to invest in demand management systems when the benefits largely accrue to their competitors? SPECIFICS please or nothing.

Len Gould
3.6.08
Also what are the EXACT contract terms between your 2GR retailers and the customers? If a 2GR invests in smart-grid technology for a homeowner under eg. a five-year supply contract, then the homeowner sells out and moves away, what happens? Is the new buyer bound to the contract or does it remain a liability of the one who moved? Many more undetailed and critical issues.In general, EWPC can't work.

Len Gould
3.6.08
And I assure you, despite what Maierand Rechtin may say in their book "The Art of Systems Architecting", you'll never likely find a repair shop for agricultural machinery with pristine white-painted floors etc. Reality just doesn't work that way. "Ultraquality" is an interesting word.
Len Gould
3.6.08
(meant to say "the same pristine work environment as the Rolls-Royce maintenance shop", reference "repair shop for agricultural machinery".)
Todd McKissick
3.6.08
I have two questions with each directed toward each plan promoter.Retail competition. How exactly is that defined? I'm assuming it is the local distributor marketing their wares (electrical service) to their customers while trying to lure customers away from their competing companies. If this is true, the monopoly territories are gone and they are not selling based on quantity but rather quality of service. If Retail competition is trying to outsell the overall volume of their competition, then there is no incentive to conserve or break up monopolist territories. Both really make the case for separating the quantity (generators) from the quality (distributors).
Active Demand. Is Active Demand meant to only include some non-customer entity actually controlling DR equipment or does it also refer to a scenerio where a public price fluctuates relative to everyone's collective costs and demand simply responds without any hard feedback?

Jose Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio
3.6.08
Todd,Retail competition replaces the monopoly retailer. Since distribution gets integrated with transmission, there is no longer an incumbent retailer that owns the wires and serves as a barrier to progress. Different from the state monopoly retailer, the competitive retailer should operate under a federal jurisdiction generating great incentives to develop business model innovations for market a related segments.
Active demand just means having means to offer demand reduction, generation and storage beyond the meter in sufficient quantities as to be important to power system planning, operation and control. Large demand side energy efficiency projects should be coordinated with transportation and generation expansion plans.

Jose Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio
3.6.08
Dear Todd and Len,Let's keep on the essential requirements, which is all that is needed for the debate and dialogue of the market vs. market competition.
It is very important to agree that vertical integration is not in the market vs. market competition as it doesn’t have the capacity to respond cost effectively to Active Demand and Demand Integration. FERC and NERC are having a tough time on the requirements that are overextending the capability of the vertical integration paradigm.
Vertical integration has an ultraquality requirement and answers with a NO in each of the three other questions. As such, EWPC is the largest shift away from vertical integration that keeps an ultraquality requirement. As will be seen, IMEUC does not have the essential ultraquality requirement.
The ultraquality requirement satisfies the essential criterion disclosed by Fred Schweppe el al in the book “Spot Pricing of Electricity.” The criterion is "Utility Control, Operation and Planning: Consider the engineering requirements for controlling, operating and planning an electric power system."
In fact, ultraquality is a true and non-trivial requirement absolutely necessary that involves the concepts of system adequacy (long run – power system expansion planning - systemic risk of system failure) and system security (short run – power systems operations planning - systemic risk of system failure) that I understand goes well beyond our debate and dialogue, but that I have delved in the past in many earlier posts.
As the world has changed and Active Demand is waiting for the market barriers to be taken down, both system adequacy and system security will include Demand Integration to power system planning, operation, and control, activities that will be performed by 2GRs. System security plans, developed with security constraint unit commitment simulations at wholesale considering generation resources, need to be extended to consider also demand resources to perform Demand Integration.
IMEUC intends to use prices to balance supply and demand, but prices are non-trivial also. Jay Forrester, the Father of System Dynamics explains that “… supply and demand are not balanced by prices alone, as is commonly done in economic models. Inventories, backlogs, and delivery delays are the primary short-term balancing forces. Prices then change as a result of over or under supply of product”
From the system security plans, power system operators select from the all the generating units (inventory from generators) available the generating stock that is operate synchronized to the grid and under EWPC power system operators need also select from all the demand stock available to respond (inventory from 2GRs) the corresponding demand response stock to operate the power system at ultraquality (being able to manage effectively at all times, with the needed redundancy, potential backlogs and delivery delays).

Len Gould
3.6.08
Jose Amtonio: "Jay Forrester, the Father of System Dynamics" is long since obsoleted by modern electronics. A distribution region which can, conservatively, vary it's peak demand down by 20% or more in a period of minutes based on reactions to grid dynamics, incented by realtime prices, completely invaidates your hypothesis. Such dramatic reactions would never be common, but they would be available under IMEUC to deal with emergencies such as unplanned generation or grid outages. Given the near future connection of large numbers of PHEV battery chargers, eventually becoming grid-wise, eg. able to feed power back if the price gets high enough, that number is if anything, conservative. Such a system, implemented properly, eliminates your argument on "Inventories, backlogs, and delivery delays".BTW, how are 2G Retailers incented to invest in such systems under EWPC when the benefits accrue to their competition who does not so invest? And my otrher questions? (Again)

Jose Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio
3.7.08
Todd and Len:Once again, even oil markets don't "use prices to balance supply and demand, but prices are non-trivial also." Those markets operate according stocks and flows, which makes Jay Forrester as important as ever.
I am glad that Len pointed out that IMEUC is also technology dependent and based on a market prediction. That makes it a very risky proposition. PHEV depend on batteries that have a lot of difficulties associated with them, including economic (i.e. competition with other technologies), environmental issues, etc.
EWPC is very robust, because it is generation and storage technology neutral, from the supply side and the demand side. Markets should be allowed to determine what technologies will have the best chances, as it is impossible to predict the best technologies.
Under EWPC 2GRs make money on energy flows in both directions, but most of the money will come from information intensive technology investments at the federal market level. That money will come from increase the efficiency of customers’ investments and energy purchases and the coordination savings resulting lower wholesale market prices.
Instead of an obsolete, monopoly, and fixed business model, in which energy sales are linked to profits, 2GRs will develop business model innovations while integrating demand to power system planning, operation and control. The competition that doesn't invest in business model development, will take big risks in the retail and wholesale markets. At retail, customers will select the best business deals offered, which will be the result of business model innovations on every market segment. At wholesale, lack of business savvy will result in mistakes in customers aggregation parameters transaction costs risks.
During the transition, in which some customers might be still under price controls (served by those that don’t invest!), unlike customers without price controls, they should subject to direct control (interruptions!!!). No cross subsidies should be allowed between all customers on price controls and all those without price controls, including the potential cross subsidies related to interruptions of customers on price controls. This means that the idea of a monopoly service of metering infrastructure should not be allowed. Competitive 2GRs will need to install a standard hardware metering system, differentiating them with software and firmware downloads.

Jose Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio
3.7.08
Mission accomplished!!!"...it is wise to concentrate just on the essentials items." They are the generic market model paradigm: retail competition with active demand and ultraquality transportation. That is the essence."

Len Gould
3.7.08
Jose Antonio: "I am glad that Len pointed out that IMEUC is also technology dependent and based on a market prediction. That makes it a very risky proposition." -- ?? Not as risky as doing nothing, which is EWPC. Perhaps very robust because absolutely nothing changes?Still waiting for answers to the problems of EWPC, as posed above.
IMEUC is far more market-based than is EWPC. EWPC "apparently" turns the entire market over to a few priveleged 2GR retailers, and restricts all others from direct access to the actual suppliers. (How, by regulation perhaps? What do large industrials think of that? Another question which won't get answered.) IMEUC simply PROVIDES A MARKET, a free amd open marketplace where all ideas and developments can compete fairly at all levels. IF 2GR retailers are a good idea (??) then they will predominate under IMEUC. IF they can sell electricity to customers cheaper than the generating companies can, then they have the floor.

Len Gould
3.7.08
Jose Antonio: "Competitive 2GRs will need to install a standard hardware metering system, differentiating them with software and firmware downloads."Thats IMEUC! Congratulations, you've seen the light!

Len Gould
3.7.08
Now don't go claiming that you invented THAT one!!!
Jose Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio
3.7.08
Large industrials can still participate on the wholesale market.Thank you for the correction. I didn’t invent that one. It is not one standard metering system; it is just one standard meter with only one hardware spec and many 2GRs that purchased them in the open market from multiple sources. Eventually it should get mass produced for the whole world at very low cost, so that customers at the Bottom of the Pyramid get electricity and credit for their response. IMEUC is one metering system for only one monopoly market manager.
Every 2GR will have their own private metering system as they develop their business model innovations, which will differentiate them with the software and firmware downloads.
"Given the near future connection of large numbers of PHEV battery chargers, eventually becoming grid-wise, eg. able to feed power back if the price gets high enough, that number is if anything, conservative..." is something that may just not occur. IMEUC is technology dependent. EWPC is dependent on what 2GRs do to implement their business model innovations, with whichever generating or storage technologies in the market.

Second 45 EWPC Blog Articles


This collection of the links, date/time stamp, and introductory words of the second 45 EWPC Blog articles (46-90) is available as an alternative source to the EWPC Blog. I believe that every article can be though of as a holographic image from a different perspective of the whole EWPC market architecture and design paradigm shift.
90 Uncertain Generation is Here to Stay
Posted At : February 11, 2008 3:28 PM

The discussion with Edward Bair in the EWPC article Two More Lessons from Denmark’s Wind Story ended with the statement “The third lesson is, thanks God, that uncertain generation (wind, solar, etc.) is here to stay!”

89 The Smart Grid Transportation Utility
Posted At : February 4, 2008 9:04 AM

Dramatic and radical change is coming to the electric utility industry as the utility itself evolves to the smart transportation grid, under a complete rethinking of the electric industry. Front and...

88 Two More Lessons from Denmark’s Wind Story
Posted At : February 3, 2008 3:53 PM

The Denmark Challenge - Lessons From an Emerging Wind Power - The people of Denmark have a story to tell in their own Nordic unassuming way. You hear it from quietly proud Per Volund, an engineer, as...

87 Value Creation for the Customers
Posted At : January 30, 2008 12:55 PM

To end value destruction at the interface between the utility grid and the utility enterprise and at the interface between transmission and distribution, a shift from financial to production capital...

86 Innovation and Risk Taking in the Power Industry
Posted At : January 25, 2008 9:58 AM

Open Transmission Access was a great mistake made at the outset of restructuring to preserve utilities rights. To introduce innovation, risk taking and create value for the customers, transmission m...

85 The End of Electric Monopoly Retail
Posted At : January 24, 2008 3:15 PM

By José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D. Systemic Consultant: Electricity Copyright © 2008 José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio. All rights reserved. No part of this article m...

84 PCT One of Many Business Model Innovations
Posted At : January 20, 2008 1:23 PM

California panel removes proposed mandate for utility-controlled thermostats - Bowing to public pressure, the California Energy Commission has removed its proposed mandate for utility-controlled therm...

83 Creative Destruction of the Old Electric Paradigm
Posted At : January 13, 2008 12:16 PM

The economic theory of creative destruction is the key force to the destruction of the vertically integrated industry and the emergence of a new paradigm of global or universal electric service. Com...

82 Vertical Integration/Deregulation Debate vs. EWPC Generative Dialogue
Posted At : January 12, 2008 11:52 AM

Thanks Bob, I know that I will not be able to convince anyone that has its own agenda. That is not my intention. I will only respond to clarify what I meant. Adding only that EWPC is about one...

81 Global Electric Service Shared Vision
Posted At : January 9, 2008 12:17 PM

By extending the suggestion of Martin Rosenberg, Editor-in-Chief, EnergyBiz Magazine, a global electric service shared vision is needed. Such shared vision is open to gain a foothold for company vs....

80 A Global Standard Market Architecture and Design
Posted At : January 6, 2008 11:46 AM

One of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India or China) is poised to be the enabler of a global Standard Market Architecture and Design, if U.S. companies decide to stay behind by keeping in plac...

79 Power System Operation Stocks and Flows
Posted At : January 4, 2008 9:07 AM

An important discovery about the non-trivial aspects of power system planning, operation and control is in the making, under a generative dialogue. Resources are needed to develop an update of Jason...

78 Nanosolar Breakthrough and the Old Paradigm
Posted At : December 19, 2007 12:52 PM

Nanosolar has made great progress as it has faced and apparently surpassed many barriers so far. However, they are still facing the most important barrier, which is the old electric power paradigm...

77 Making Electricity a Commodity
Posted At : December 17, 2007 2:01 PM

To make electricity a commodity, a proper market architecture and design has emerged in the last two years, as the electricity without price controls (EWPC) paradigm. The structural flaws in the cur...

76 Market Research Doesn’t Work Yet for Demand Integration
Posted At : December 15, 2007 7:42 AM

Demand integration is a discontinuous innovation and the reason why the responses of customers are way off with respect to the non-trivial concept of demand response. Politics should NOT continue to...

75 To BE or NOT to BE Smart Metering
Posted At : December 13, 2007 9:04 AM

The lack of a consistent market architecture and design paradigm shift creates a Babel Tower in Ontario. There is a need to consider the whole power industry and not isolated incremental shifts maki...

74 Demand Integration is NOT the Province of Politics.
Posted At : December 6, 2007 1:43 PM

Demand integration and system reliability are not the provinces of politics, but of engineering systems and competition. FERC’s demand response staff assessment begs the question of a properly...

73 Ohio Should Focus on EWPC
Posted At : November 29, 2007 7:44 PM

First Energy Corp. entered into a contradiction by handing a letter signed by prominent economists to show they believe in competitive markets. The contradiction is that the economists...

72 Does EWPC have a “Bystander Problem”?
Posted At : November 22, 2007 2:47 PM

Believe it or not, EWPC is about teaching leadership. As “human beings are a lot more sensitive to their environment than they may seem,” I would like to learn from the bystanders whethe...

71 EEI-ting Your Own Lunch
Posted At : November 22, 2007 1:12 PM

Edison Electric Institute members have empowered the government to take control of the power industry. They should stop dreaming, work hard to ban regulation and to let the market decide by followin...

70 Increased Sense of Urgency of EWPC
Posted At : November 20, 2007 12:38 PM

EWPC sense of urgency is reinforced. As the market architecture and design breakthrough paradigm, EWPC will enable the possibility to a superior development path for the power industry. However, put...

69 EEI California Dreamin’
Posted At : November 19, 2007 3:05 PM

The U.S. power industry is dreaming that it is safe, when in fact the leaves are brown and the sky is gray as the industry is in the NO PROFIT ZONE. To get it safe and warm into the PROFIT ZONE, EEI...

68 EWPC is NOT the Ontario Model Either
Posted At : November 18, 2007 7:36 PM

Just as EWPC is not the UK Model, it is not the Ontario market model either. However, probably with a hidden purpose, Mr. G keeps confusing the de-regulation market model of Ontario with the EWPC ma...

67 To EEI: “Let's Ban Regulation,” Starting in Ohio
Posted At : November 17, 2007 12:24 PM

Should we ban regulation? YES! Go for a paradigm shift to “moving energy” with the EWPC winning market architecture and design breakthrough. The next opportunity then is in Ohio. Now we...

66 We Need Demand Elasticity
Posted At : November 16, 2007 7:05 PM

Say fuel oil increase from $90 to $100 per Barril. 11% increase. What could one expect. The problem with deregulation is that fuel prices are amplified into electricity prices. Expect more than 11% i...

65 EWPC is NOT the UK Model
Posted At : November 15, 2007 8:38 PM

In EWPC there are 8 possible End-State (UK was developed on 4), only one of which is the generic market model paradigm: retail competition with active demand (UK had no active demand) and ultraquali...

64 A New Response to Adrian Lloyd
Posted At : November 15, 2007 3:01 PM

Adrian Lloyd’s is happy to listen. His opinions, which he may change, as he is a well versed and important person, are responded below. This is how EWPC completes the answers Adrian Lloyd c...

63 Financing and Developing Uncertain Generation
Posted At : November 15, 2007 2:33 PM

Another partial response to respond to Adrian Lloyd in this upgrade to Nov. 15, 2007, most viewed article. EWPC is the answer to the difficult question on how to finance and develop uncertain genera...

62 Integrating Uncertain Generation to the Grid
Posted At : November 15, 2007 1:09 PM

As a partial response to Adrain Lloyd, the article Wind Integration: An Emerging Paradigm, can be paraphrased almost entirely by interchanging “wind” with “UG (uncertain generation...

61 Storage is Ready to Cross the Chasm
Posted At : November 14, 2007 11:56 AM

As experienced in the Dominican Republic, the disruptive technology of distributed storage has been ready for prime time for quite some time, lacking a shift to the EWPC paradigm. The reason it has...

60 K2007 Retailers’ Enterprise Solutions
Posted At : November 13, 2007 7:01 PM

An affordable model for retailers’ enterprise solutions business model innovations, based on Free Open Source Solutions, is reported by Bill Opalka at Knowledge 2007. The model suggests how th...

59 Let the Innovations Locate the Smarts
Posted At : November 13, 2007 9:36 AM

An effective smart metering system should develop under competition of business models for several market segments of the power industry. Innovations should be the jury. Let the Innovations Locat...

58 Disintegrating the Grid and Retail Worlds
Posted At : November 12, 2007 3:51 PM

Instead of trying to integrate the grid and the retail sides of the utilities, CIOs should take the results of an essential system analysis that supports the EWPC market architecture and design brea...

57 The EWPC Textbook
Posted At : November 12, 2007 9:04 AM

A textbook on electricity without price controls (EWPC) has been in the making for quite some time. The textbook will answer the paradox, “How much system reliability can you afford?” by...
56 Friendly Comments on Deregulation Update
Posted At : November 10, 2007 10:16 AM

This is an update of Some Friendly Comments on True Electric Deregulation Part 4, posted on Tuesday, December 27, 2005, on the BMH blog. The update is in square "[" "]" brackets,...

55 “Let the Market Decide” in Ohio
Posted At : November 9, 2007 6:29 PM

By endorsing the EWPC market architecture and design breakthrough paradigm shift, the EEI will tell Ohio’s policymakers that energy efficiency is the cheapest, quickest, and cleanest resource...

54 The BOTH/AND Assumption of EWPC
Posted At : November 9, 2007 8:42 AM
By using both the smart grid and distributed resources, EWPC will produce reliable electricity at affordable costs, just like Toyota does with cars. The BOTH/AND Assumption of EWPC By Jos&eacu...

53 The Lecture on EWPC Re-Regulation
Posted At : November 8, 2007 8:33 AM

The new lecture on the power industry is about EWPC re-regulation. With the same old lecture, Professor Banks is correct that E1R2 deregulation is a failure. Dear Prof. Banks, Mr. Somsel and ot...

52 Let EWPC Come to Fruition
Posted At : November 7, 2007 2:08 PM

As ‘the heat of combat is over, and a decision’ about EWPC can now be reached, ‘all the bitterness disappears, and people work hard to bring’ EWPC ‘to fruition in the b...

51 EWPC As The New Internet
Posted At : November 6, 2007 10:54 AM

EWPC is sufficiently flexible to enable a transformation ot the electric power industry into the new internet. EWPC As The New Internet By José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D. Sy...

50 The "Continuity" Scenario is Gone
Posted At : November 5, 2007 2:57 PM

The future of the power industry is now restricted to the "Tough Times" and "Rising Expectations" scenarios of Deloitte Research, as the "Continuity" scenario is no longe...

49 Positive Returns under EWPC
Posted At : November 3, 2007 10:18 AM

Positive returns in the power industry that existed under vertical integration are now gone. New positive returns will come from business model innovations of retailers’ enterprise solutions t...
48 A New Mistaken Experiment
Posted At : November 2, 2007 1:57 PM

As there are Only Two Stable Paradigms, the electricity-regulation bill approved by Ohio’s Senate is just a new mistaken experiment under economic first, reliability second, tinkering. Mr....

47 Can We Concentrate on Results?
Posted At : November 2, 2007 10:26 AM

Can we concentrate on results? I would say YES, as the knowledge required to decide that the decade old debate between great scams and the apparently lesser and more familiar customer wallet cleanin...

46 Customer Wallet Cleaning Problem and Solution
Posted At : November 1, 2007 9:55 AM
The vertically integrated utilities paradigm has been in a NO PROFIT ZONE for quite some time, letting utilities make a profit under regulation only by the “consumer having his wallet cleaned...

First 45 EWPC Blog Articles

This collection of the links, date/time stamp, and introductory words of the first 45 EWPC Blog articles is available as an alternative source to the EWPC Blog. I believe that every article can be though of as a holographic image from a different perspective of the whole EWPC market architecture and design paradigm shift.

45 Switching Retailers is NOT as Important
Posted At : October 31, 2007 3:02 PM
Dear Fred (Banks), Len, Mike, Fred (Plett), Jim, Steve, and Peter…I am glad that the dialogue is getting more balanced and rich, with the participation of all of you important and intelligent people, on three fronts.

44 Uno Lamm is a Leader Role Model
Posted At : October 29, 2007 2:50 PM

Dear Prof. Banks and readers, This is the quote about Uno Lamm in the article Handling Sweden’s Electric Reform Threats: As my hero Uno Lamm proved, when he introduced High Voltage Direct...

43 Response to Professor Banks
Posted At : October 28, 2007 8:01 PM

Dear Professor Banks and Mr. Gould, As promised, I just published the following articles in energyblogs.com in response to the article and the comments. The Natural Monopoly Transportation Sys...

42 A Little Silicon is Necessary but NOT Sufficient
Posted At : October 28, 2007 7:18 PM

There is more to markets than meter electronics. It is important to understand the need for retailers as the bridge between the retail and wholesale markets. A Little Silicon is Necessary but NOT...

41 A Futures Market under EWPC
Posted At : October 28, 2007 7:03 PM

The elements of a futures market under R1E2 EWPC to lead to an stable and competitive electric markets environment are explained. A Futures Market under EWPC By José Antonio Vanderhorst...

40 Handling Sweden’s Electric Reform Threats
Posted At : October 28, 2007 6:54 PM

Strong leadership is needed to complete the reform process in the Nordid countries to benefit end customers, by introducing a paradigm shift to EWPC, and making them active participants in the elect...

39 The Natural Monopoly Transportation System
Posted At : October 28, 2007 6:05 PM

EWPC provides a new configuration in which the natural monopoly is reduced to the transportation system of the electric market, where the old configuration produces much higher and more volatile pri...

38 The Old Response to Jack Casazza
Posted At : October 27, 2007 2:23 PM

It seems to me that the above comments help understand what has happen to the electricity business. I will use Jack Casazza’s comments and EPRI’s Framework to try to add elements to the di...

37 An Old Letter from Jack Casazza
Posted At : October 27, 2007 2:17 PM

On 12/29/05, Jack Casazza wrote: Dear Jose Antonio, I have been reading the discussions between you, Prof. Banks and others and did not comment previously because I did not have anything to add. I t...

36 The Magic Deregulation Formula
Posted At : October 24, 2007 6:57 AM

Dear Professor Banks, Thank you very much for your challenge (which I found by browsing your article): "I am thinking in particular of the consultant Jose Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio. He admits...

35 Disruptive Technologies Convergence
Posted At : October 20, 2007 3:43 PM

Now that EWPC has emerged, it is to too little, too late, to try to extend the VIUs paradigm beyond its capabilities to integrate the grid and the enterprise. The availability of at least six disrup...

34 No Need for Regulated Price Caps - II
Posted At : October 20, 2007 1:37 PM

Customers’ price caps are the key to the infrequent rational rationing of service. During a transition to EWPC that ends with every customer defining its own price cap, it is important to unde...

33 No Need for Regulated Price Caps - I
Posted At : October 20, 2007 12:23 PM

Missing in the discussion under the article "Meeting Our Need for Electric Power," up to the 19th of October, 2007, are the huge coordination problems of short run unit commitment and long...

32 Full Retail Choice Emerges
Posted At : October 19, 2007 10:46 AM

As customer value migrates a paradigm shift of full retail choice emerges under EWPC from R&D discoveries that allows retail and wholesale competition without incumbent retailers. Full Retail...

31 The Sense of Urgency for EWPC Restructuring
Posted At : October 15, 2007 9:26 AM

There is a strong sence of urgency for the implementation of EWPC. Professor Alberto Ramírez Orquín writes "Soaring prices together with the perception of a deteriorating service/...

30 Give Engineers What Belongs to Engineers
Posted At : October 13, 2007 5:18 PM

Engineers no longer have any possibility to take back the whole industry for themselves. EWPC is a market architecture and design breakthrough discovery that gives engineers what belongs to engineer...

29 Rethinking Electricity Restructuring as EWPC
Posted At : October 12, 2007 3:11 PM

Strong EWPC market architecture and design recommendations to restructure worldwide electricity markets, superseed those proposed in 2004 by Peter Van Doren and Jerry Taylor of the Cato Institute by...

28 How TXU Can Take the Lead
Posted At : October 11, 2007 2:30 PM

The Texan’s Market is one of the most likely candidates to start the paradigm shift to EWPC, ending demand forever as an externality. It has been shown that the days of the obsolete VIUs parad...

27 Only Two Stable Paradigms
Posted At : October 11, 2007 12:37 PM

There are two stable paradigms: vertically integrated utilities (VIUs) and electricity without price controls (EWPC). Both have a Reliability First, Economic Second (R1E2), as their non-trivial essent...

26 Financing and Developing Wind Projects
Posted At : October 5, 2007 10:38 AM

EWPC is the answer to the difficult question on how to finance and develop wind projects for all stakeholders to win. The underlying problem is found on the successive extensions of the inefficient...

25 Strategy is NOT Enough to Reach the End-State
Posted At : October 3, 2007 8:22 PM

As he is not his opinion, Dr. Stephen Lee can easily separate the objective, or strategic side of leadership, from the subjective, or culture side of leadership, as to what affect human behavior in...
24 Slicing the Last of the Regulated Monopolies
Posted At : October 1, 2007 5:02 PM

The sense of urgency has arrived to introduce competition in the power industry, with a paradigm shift to EWPC. The shift will sliced the last of the regulated monopolies. Enough insights are now avai...

23 Demand Integration Under EWPC
Posted At : September 30, 2007 3:37 PM

Fred C. Schweppe said that “The demand forecast is always wrong!” To mitigate forecasts errors and introduce stability in the power industry, EWPC integrates demand to power...

22 The Sixth Disruptive Technology
Posted At : September 30, 2007 3:06 PM

A set of 6 disruptive technologies can be identified “To do a better job of managing our dwindling energy resources…” AMI and the Smart Grid are the fourth and fifth disruptive te...

21 Synthesis Proposal Agreement of EWPC
Posted At : September 28, 2007 2:41 PM

There are "8 possible End-State, only one of which is the generic market model paradigm: retail competition with active demand and ultraquality transportation. That is the essence." This i...

20 Conspiracy Theory Against Mr. X
Posted At : September 27, 2007 9:14 AM

A conspiracy theory against Mr. X being a Nobel Prize candidate is written to provide an ordered framework to understand the chaotic events that happened or will happen in the Energy Central Network...

19 2nd Disruptive Technology Crossed Chasm
Posted At : September 26, 2007 8:52 PM

Distributed generation joins demand response as disruptive technologies keeps penetrating the power industry. It is shown the need to change from an incremental change to a breakthrough pace, and fr...

18 Engineers Needed for Lower Prices
Posted At : September 25, 2007 8:03 PM

The paradigm shift from the vertically integrated utilities to the electricity without price control paradigm will lead to lower costs, lower profits and lower prices after a reasonable delay. To ac...

17 Take EWPC Lead & Reap Large Benefits
Posted At : September 25, 2007 9:32 AM

The US Congress, the European Commission, the state of Ohio, and the Dominican Republic, are some the most likely candidates to start the paradigm shift to EWPC, ending demand forever as an external...

16 Utility Trends and Real Paradigm Shift
Posted At : September 24, 2007 2:03 PM

A paradigm shift to EWPC is urgently needed to change the status quo and start integrating distributed resources and good ideas into power sectors all over the world. To all writers and readers,...

15 Free Market and Central Planning, Under R1E2
Posted At : September 24, 2007 8:34 AM

This is my synthesis of the EWPC paradigm shift that maximizes social welfare. Although it is a non-trivial subject, it seems that many intelligent and important readers of earlier posts may just un...

14 IMEUC: Unreliable Service and Price Spikes
Posted At : September 23, 2007 5:45 PM

In response to the suggestion by Mr. Jeff Presley about simulations, it is shown that there is not a need to look further, as a simulator already exists, and its information’s confirm the EWPC...

13 So Far Just ONE Objection to EWPC as Winner
Posted At : September 22, 2007 10:07 AM

As tomorrow's deadline approaches, only Mr. Len Gould has provided a dissent to EWPC as the winning market for the first phase of competition. The second phase is the company vs. company competition...

12 Wind Integration: An Emerging Paradigm
Posted At : September 21, 2007 7:59 PM

Republished from Aug. 20th, 2007. There is a need for a change in mental models to integrate wind to power systems operation. Several generative dialogue suggestions are given to apply the f...

11 Extra, Extra… Goliath is Defeated Once Again!
Posted At : September 21, 2007 7:40 PM

Reprinted from Sept. 17th, 2007 for completeness. David has won! The Electricity Without Price Controls (EWPC) Breakthrough paradigm has finally beaten the Vertically Integrated Utilities (VIU) Para...

10 EWPC - Winner 1st Competition Phase
Posted At : September 20, 2007 1:30 PM

After nearly two years of downloads, debates, reflexive dialogues and generative dialogues, EWPC declared itself as the winner of the first phase of competition in EnergyPulse.net. Dear writers and...

09 Solving Smart Grid Cost Recovery
Posted At : September 20, 2007 8:49 AM

To solve the Smart Grid cost recovery dilemma requires a restructuring of the electric industry in such a way that the regulator gets the right signals. A shift from The Anti-System Utility to EWPC so...

08 A Warning to the US Congress and the European Commission
Posted At : September 20, 2007 6:36 AM

US Congress and the European Commission need to digest EWPC very fast. The political distortions in the power industry at the state level in the USA and at the country level in Europe can be strongl...

07 The Anti-System Utility
Posted At : September 19, 2007 4:35 PM

Vertically integrated utilities don't operate as a system because of a monopoly mindset of incumbents investor owned utilities and political interference. To operate as a system a paradigm shift to...

06 Divine Dispensation of Electric Markets is Gone
Posted At : September 19, 2007 9:32 AM

As a result of David killing Goliath, US Congress has the great opportunity to introduce EWPC to the USA. In addition, the state of Ohio has the first opportunity to reap the benefits of retail comp...

05 The BIG California LIE
Posted At : September 18, 2007 1:56 PM

The BIG LIE is that retail competition is impossible in electric markets. The implementation of a competitive retail market was the center of the debate in California. Instead of cooperating t...

04 Great Opportunities Under New Energy Bills
Posted At : September 17, 2007 1:54 PM

In the copyright protected link Extra, Extra… Goliath is Defeated Once Again!, you may find out how vertically integrated utilities will very soon start to be erased from the face of the e...

03 Breakthough
Posted At : September 16, 2007 8:03 PM

EWPC is a breakthrough that is poised to transform the electricity industry. As the state of Ohio is in the process to re-regulate the industry, they should make the transition to the EWPC market...

02 David and Goliath
Posted At : September 15, 2007 6:49 PM

David is EWPC re-regulation and Goliath is the Vertically Integrated Utilities. Both markets architectures and designs are non-trivial paradigms of the power industry. It is argued, that the paradigm...

01 EWPC Superiority in Carbon Emission Reductions
Posted At : September 13, 2007 8:31 PM

A comparison between the power industry vertical integration and electricity without price controls (EWPC) non-trivial paradigms, will show that EWPC should be adopted in the new US Energy Bill, as pa...

yyy