martes, marzo 22, 2016

Do Players in 1st and 2nd Place in Smart Grid 2025 Game Deserve to be Call Winners? Part II

Jose Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio | Mar 31, 2011

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April 4, 2011, Update: a key insight emerged, while elaborating the EWPC post A Proposal to Declare the Winners of the IEEE Spectrum Smart Grid 2025 Game: the 20 points awarded by the Foresight Guides, when they identified a "Super-interesting" Card, lost its value as the points earned by players increased as shown below. That insight shifts the importance to said proposal that addresses the distortion on the Foresight Engine system.

Tomorrow April 1st, will be two full weeks from the end of IEEE Spectrum Smart Grid 2025 Game, without any update to enable the players and the public learn about the winners. This report is intended to change that, giving additional evidence to help anyone easily respond to the EWPC post Was the EWPC-AF_Creator the All Around Winner of the Smart Grid 2025 Game?

The evidence is in the particular engagement, shown play by play in Part I and also below in this Part II.  Raul V.R., from Spain, and Greg, from Europe, seem to have avoided the expected plays, in order to get to the first and second position of the Leaderboard, respectively. At least two observations help show if they played a game or not to deserve its leadership:

  1. It is important to notice (see Part I ) that they both avoided two very important Cards, played by fiskus, from Melbourne, Australia, just 12 and 13 seconds after the start of the mentioned engagement. It is evident that either the Momentum or the Antagonism Micro-forecasts had the potential to show critical weaknesses of the Positive Imagination Micro-forecast. As can be seen, those weaknesses showed up soon as Raul and Greg interacted, but not on the points they received from the system, that, as you may see, grow near the power of two.
  2. It is also important to highlight, that Greg, who only played 20 cards during the 24 hours, did not defend either his initial Micro-forecast, when capt_stargazer started to participate (see below), by playing the Antagonism Card “Definitely utopian.” Instead, Greg avoids it. In fact, the original Positive imagination is forgotten and continued by Raul V.R in a different direction set by capt_stargazer who, as can be seen, takes control of the engagement, but no the points.


Card Number
Time
Card Followed
Player Name
Type of Card Played
 Micro-forecast or idea
Points for player
3829
3/18/2011 10:59
3824
capt_stargazer
Antagonism
Definitely utopian.
           3,807
3842
3/18/2011 11:07
3829
Raul V.R.
Adaptation
I agree in part. The increasing complexity of future systems could lead to higher standards in political life
           1,903
3862
3/18/2011 11:22
3842
capt_stargazer
Antagonism
That assumes correlation between technological sophistication and human governance.  The former, great progress. The latter, less so.
              951
3885
3/18/2011 11:35
3862
Raul V.R.
Momentum
I agree. Too technological governance can lead to deshumanize societies
              475
3888
3/18/2011 11:37
3885
capt_stargazer
Momentum
Especially if the governance is so complex it must be controlled by AI or semi-automated systems beyond human comprehension.
              237







3923
3/18/2011 11:51
3888
rmadams
Adaptation
When governance is described by consistent and completely-described rules, the playing field can be significantly leveled for everyone...
              111
3933
3/18/2011 11:56
3923
capt_stargazer
Antagonism
Godel demonstrated the impossibility of such rules.  No rule set can completely describe itself, thereby making total governance impossible.
               55
3939
3/18/2011 12:00
3933
rmadams
Adaptation
Fair enough- but the rules themselves can completely describe the governing actions, which is what matters- and what differs from custom...
               27
3945
3/18/2011 12:02
3939
capt_stargazer
Adaptation
I see your point.  I am still dubious of strict rule sets.  My experience in policy suggests the more complex, the less they are followed.
               13







3956
3/18/2011 12:09
3945
rmadams
Adaptation
You are right, of course, but the advantage of strict rule sets is that they are at least well-understood.  No smoky back-room deals
                 3
3997
3/18/2011 12:26
3956
capt_stargazer
Adaptation
Agreed.  Would love to seem them if easily created and followed.  Just fear they tend to be neither!
                 1







3977
3/18/2011 12:18
3945
PonyXpress
Momentum
Have you seen how the world within The World of Warcraft is configured? Talk about complicated!! Yet there's gazillion self-opted in players
                 3
4003
3/18/2011 12:29
3977
capt_stargazer
Adaptation
Good example, but that also emerged incrementally over time, didn't it?  It wasn't designed in one fell swoop.
                 1







3906
3/18/2011 11:44
3888
Raul V.R.
Momentum
Finally humanity is controlled by a few technological lobbies...
                 7
3919
3/18/2011 11:49
3906
capt_stargazer
Momentum
Making 2025 look rather similar to today!
                 3
3922
3/18/2011 11:51
3919
Raul V.R.
Momentum
Right! Humanity destiny is dark... ;). Hope we are miss
                 1







3835
3/18/2011 11:03
3824
Greg
Adaptation
Or at least \traditional\" politician will intake more of technicians and scientists advice into ccount"
                 3
3846
3/18/2011 11:09
3835
Raul V.R.
Momentum
Definitely, they will need huge high quality advice; Hope they are aware of it
                 1







3791
3/18/2011 10:39
3785
Raul V.R.
Momentum
Totally agree: most of governments have very low and short minded people in politics.
                 7
3795
3/18/2011 10:43
3791
lucknau
Momentum
True. Changing the minds of politicians will probably require reframing the issue as one of energy security and reliability.
                 3
3802
3/18/2011 10:47
3795
Raul V.R.
Adaptation
I think the point is getting the best people of the private sector becoming interested in politics and society
                 1


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