martes, marzo 22, 2016

Do the Players in 1st and 2nd Place on the Smart Grid 2025 Game Deserve to be Call Winners? Part I.

Jose Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio | Mar 31, 2011

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April 4, 2011, Update: a key insight emerged, while elaborating the EWPC post A Proposal to Declare the Winners of the IEEE Spectrum Smart Grid 2025 Game: the 20 points awarded by the Foresight Guides, when they identified a "Super-interesting" Card, lost its value as the points earned by players increased as shown below. That insight shifts the importance to said proposal that addresses the distortion on the Foresight Engine system.

Tomorrow April 1st, will be two full weeks from the end of IEEE Spectrum Smart Grid 2025 Game, without any update to enable the players and the public learn about the winners. This report is intended to change that, giving additional evidence to help anyone easily respond to the EWPC post Was the EWPC-AF_Creator the All Around Winner of the Smart Grid 2025 Game?

The evidence is in the particular engagement, shown play by play below, in this Part I, and also in Part II . Raul V.R., from Spain, and Greg, from Europe, seem to have avoided the expected plays, in order to get to the first and second position of the Leaderboard, respectively. At least two observations help show if they played a game or not to deserve its leadership:

  1. It is important to notice (see below) that they both avoided two very important Cards, played by fiskus, from Melbourne, Australia, just 12 and 13 seconds after the start of the mentioned engagement. It is evident that either the Momentum or the Antagonism Micro-forecasts had the potential to show critical weaknesses of the Positive Imagination Micro-forecast. As can be seen, those weaknesses showed up soon as Raul and Greg interacted, but not on the points they received from the system, that, as you may see, grow near the power of two.
  2. It is also important to highlight, that Greg, who only played 20 cards during the 24 hours, did not defend either his initial Micro-forecast, when capt_stargazer started to participate (see Part II  [/script>), by playing the Antagonism Card “Definitely utopian.” Instead, Greg avoids it. In fact, the original Positive imagination is forgotten and continued by Raul V.R in a different direction set by capt_stargazer who, as can be seen, takes control of the engagement, but no the points.





Card Number
Time
Card Followed
Player Name
Type of Card Played
 Micro-forecast or idea
Points for player
2730
3/18/2011 0:22
\N
Greg
Positive Imagination
Create an alternative SG (on same network) for individuals and communities producing energy. Possibility to trade with usual grid if needed.
                -  
2770
3/18/2011 0:34
2730
fiskus
Momentum
A blackmarket in power transmission by maser arises.  'Darksun' technology uses network packet switching algorithms to distribute and hide.
                 6
2775
3/18/2011 0:35
2770
fiskus
Antagonism
Entrenched utilities react to shut down alternate grid, citing safety concerns. Sunshine rebellion begins.
                -  







2740
3/18/2011 0:25
2730
Raul V.R.
Investigation
Will it be possible to run a traditional grid with only some part of it converted in smart grid? will this be worthwhile?
 124,907,519
2747
3/18/2011 0:27
2740
Greg
Investigation
At the beginning no, hence the trading with usual grid. But as more people (=users and producers at the same time) join it will be.
   62,453,759
2763
3/18/2011 0:32
2747
Raul V.R.
Investigation
Then the implementation solution is definitely some test areas? let´s say a few cities in every country, and the spread on?
\
   31,226,879
2769
3/18/2011 0:34
2763
Greg
Investigation
each city should be an important energy producer, and they should e widespread (geography, climate, activity) to spread usage.
   15,613,439
2804
3/18/2011 0:45
2769
Raul V.R.
Adaptation
Every public building should already have FV panels on top, and inject power into the grid, government has to lead the change...
     7,806,719
2823
3/18/2011 0:53
2804
Greg
Momentum
And major companies, supermarkets,... as well.
     3,903,359
2843
3/18/2011 1:02
2823
Raul V.R.
Adaptation
Right, strong support policies should be given. Problems arise when the electricity boards block the access points to the grid
     1,951,679
2860
3/18/2011 1:13
2843
Greg
Adaptation
Maybe not: as EU established as law, the electricity producers can't be providers. Then providers could be interested (by rent or law)
       975,839
2867
3/18/2011 1:16
2860
Raul V.R.
Adaptation
Right in theory. In Spain it is the same, but it doesn´t work. The producers have created new companies to still be providers...
       487,919
3771
3/18/2011 10:28
2867
Greg
Momentum
Totally true, exactly the same in France.
\Could law force providers to rent their network to all producers, in % of their production?
       243,959
3778
3/18/2011 10:32
3771
Raul V.R.
Adaptation
I hope we see it by 2025! The energy lobbies are quite strong, even governments are unable to deal with them
       121,979
3785
3/18/2011 10:35
3778
Greg
Adaptation
Because we votes for the wrong people! We should chose leaders with population's interest in mind, not increased benefits of their supports!
         60,989







3797
3/18/2011 10:43
3785
Raul V.R.
Investigation
It seems to be difficult for the right people to become leaders, how could this be changed? Politicians don´t want clever people around them
         30,487
3803
3/18/2011 10:48
3797
Greg
Adaptation
Maybe it's because clever people don't want to become leaders! Too much hassle with almost no perspective of results.
         15,243
3824
3/18/2011 10:57
3803
Raul V.R.
Adaptation
I agree. But maybe the comming technologycall challenges will lead to this clever people get involved in politics...maybe to utopian?
           7,621


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