jueves, junio 05, 2014

#PactoElectrico que impulsa Rueda Volante via acceso competitivo a Fondos de Pensión






En vez de obligar a los fondos de Pensión a destinar 10 por ciento de sus fondos en BANDEX, es mucho mejor que las AFPs sean parte del #PactoEléctrico para impulsar una transformación, del actual Ciclo Fatal donde unos ganan y otros pierden, a una Rueda Volante donde todos tienen la oportunidad de ganar, con un Servicio eléctrico sobresaliente. De esa forma las empresas podrán acudir de forma competitiva a las AFPs para hacer las transformaciones que tengan sentido económico, especialmente para hacer ajustes que les permitan generar exportaciones de mayor valor igualmente competitivas.

lunes, junio 02, 2014

Primero @giovannida responde por favor el siguiente dilemma sobre la inversión del video

 

El 24 de mayo del 2014, en el Grupo de Facebook MENTIRAS Y VERDADES - VERDADES A MEDIAS, Miriam Then colocó un video como ese, escribió mi nombre y agregó " a ver qué opina." Mi respuesta, en la que cité el artículo A Capitalist’s Dilemma, Whoever Wins on Tuesday, de CLAYTON M. CHRISTENSEN, del 3 de novembre del 2012, fue "Before I am able to respond you, please answer this dilemma:"
The Fed has been injecting more and more capital into the economy because — at least in theory — capital fuels capitalism. And yet cash hoards in the billions are sitting unused on the pristine balance sheets of Fortune 500 corporations. Billions in capital is also sitting inert and uninvested at private equity funds. 
Capitalists seem almost uninterested in capitalism, even as entrepreneurs eager to start companies find that they can’t get financing. Businesses and investors sound like the Ancient Mariner, who complained of “Water, water everywhere — nor any drop to drink.”

domingo, junio 01, 2014

Two systemic crises that no one can fix: Veteran Heath Administration and electric power services

"We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them." -- Albert Einstein. 
Like President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, President Barack Obama is facing a critical systemic problem in the Veteran Administration (VA). Roosevelt addressed a systemic banking crisis with a limited insurance savings proposal that people were not expecting but love.

In the case of the VA a proposal with support to eventually end the need for wars is something no one is expecting but will love. It is easy to anticipate that as societies get more civilized, the opportunity for deeper and authentic dialogue to deal with differences reduces even further the need for war.

My humble suggestion is to use a new kind of thinking to facilitate a shift from the industrial civilization to the post industrial one. The VA case is a specific instance of a large number of wicked or systemic problems being mishandled all over the world, which were created probably as unintended consequences of using the industrial civilization kind of thinking.

In general, the suggestion is that systemic problems need to first find a beachhead to be able to cross what Geoffrey A. Moore named “the Chasm.” He says that to cross it you first need a pragmatist in pain to address an intractable problem, like president Roosevelt did during the Great Depression. After a leader shows that’s possible, they need a few other systemic problems to also cross the Chasm, which he calls a Bowling Pin strategy. Then they get into a Tornado strategy where all kinds of wicked problems are addressed to let leading his community to change to a new civilization.

The above come from his book “Crossing the Chasm,” a BusinessWeek Bestseller, where he said “The real news, however, is not the two cracks in the bell curve, the one between the innovators and the early adopters, the other between early and late majority. No, the real news is the deep and dividing chasm that separates the early adopters from the early majority. This is by far the most formidable and unforgiving transition in the Technology Adoption Life Cycle and it is the more dangerous because it typically goes unrecognized.”

In this humble suggestion to leaders of the world, I urge that both presidents Obama and Danilo Medina need to recognize they are pragmatists in pain with respect to the Chasm relative to the VA and electricity crises. As we will see below, President Medina, with the support of President Obama, can use the systemic electricity problem of the Dominican Republic to be the first to cross the Chasm to show that it is possible. I am quite sure that many people before me have made proposals to address systemic problems that have ended in the Chasm.

Here is another argument, for example, in support of a future without the incentive for war. While the US was heading to lead the 4th technological revolution, as described by Carlota Pérez, in her book “TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS AND FINANCIAL CAPITAL: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages,” other countries decided to fight to remain in the 3rd technological revolution. In a longer time period, that was similar to what happened during the revolutionary wars for independence between the agricultural revolution and the industrial revolution.

In his book The Third Wave, Alvin Toffler shows repeatedly a surprising insight that the shift from the First Wave agricultural civilization to the Second Wave industrial civilization was totally neutral of the political, social, cultural fundamental differences between countries that led to wars. In addition, their new book Revolutionary Wealth he and his wife Heidi further explain why the waves shift had nothing to do with those fundamental differences, but with what they identify as deep fundamentals.

After learning from that recent book that those deep fundamentals “form a system,” I recognized them as systems essentials. The examples of systems essentials, for example, work, time, space and knowledge, shown in chapters 4 to 22, are shifting greatly without most people awareness to strongly support the civilization leap in the making even without wars.

That’s the main motive to suggest diplomatic efforts to agree on the emergence of the post industrial civilization, that I have suggested elsewhere is the systemic civilization, in which will be able to even dissolve (not need to be solved) many systemic problems. The reasons why I suggest world leaders to take such risks is based on insights that emerged while dealing with the electricity systemic problem which can be seen under the post Alternative EWPC scenario (hyperlinks added) to IEEE Spectrum's The Rise of the Personal Power

Here is the reason of the suggestion to address the systemic electricity crisis as the first to cross the Chasm. Using two interesting systemic metaphors, we can see from the EWPC scenario how the Dominican electricity crisis is just the tip of the iceberg of an essential system crisis that is already transforming the U.S. electric power industry that’s under a severe avalanche discovered and documented during April and May 2014. Next is how important those metaphors are.

In “Managing the Metaphors for Change,” Robert Marshak, suggested that paying attention to metaphors “… become a critical competency for leaders and change agents.” As it happened, at the outset of my involvement on the Dominican Republic electricity crisis, in 1996, I am happy to recall that I started from the solid foundations of Marshak’s insides.

In the case of the VA systemic crisis the underlying quote “We don’t have time for distractions,” Mr. Obama said. “We need to fix the problem,” is that of a non systemic mechanical thinking metaphor. Taking it at face value, with industrial civilization thinking, this article can be easily dismissed as an off topic distraction. Please don’t.

Giving me instead the benefit of the doubt, if we look closely at what By MICHAEL D. SHEAR and RICHARD A. OPPEL Jr. wrote on MAY 30, 2014 edition of the New York Times, under the article “V.A. Chief Resigns in Face of Furor on Delayed Care,” we see a distraction behind the reporters thinking in that “Fixing the problem at the department now becomes an urgent political matter for the president, once again raising questions about whether the candidate who pledged in 2008 and 2012 to make government work efficiently has lost grasp of the government he now leads.”

But Mr. Obama and Mr. Medina are not alone on the many systemic problems being faced all over the world. In the VA systemic problem Mr. Obama is facing, for example, cause and effect are not close in the essential system variables of time (other presidents started the wars before him) and space (Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan). In the post-industrial civilization it is no longer acceptable to get stuck under machine metaphor thinking, but that kind of thinking continuous still widespread. We need to cross the Chasm from the industrial civilization to the systemic civilization as soon as possible.

Are these the only systemic crises that no one can’t fix? In his article, Marshak describes two other kinds of metaphors: developmental and transitional neither of which is able to deal with systemic crises. It is easy to see that we should not be dealing either with the images “build and develop,” or those with “move and relocate.”

Without getting involved here in the details, the metaphor being considered in IEEE Spectrum's The Rise of the Personal Power is the transitional one to move the electric power industry into the digital world. With EWPC we are actually dealing with the transformational metaphor of the “liberate and recreate” image as part of an emergent civilization. That’s how we will be able to add the much needed systemic leverage to the industry.

What’s needed is to reinvent government by introducing the systemic civilization. In fact, the Access Audit findings reveal “a systemic lack of integrity within some Veteran Health Administration facilities.” That only some were discovered in Phase One of the audit is not to be taken lightly, because as wicked (systemic) problems behave as icebergs, from which can easily see only the tip of the problem, as many were flagged for further review. As the audit might lead to a witch hunt “… suspected willful misconduct” to be fixed with “appropriate personnel actions” that “ will be pursued promptly.”

jueves, mayo 29, 2014

José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio global citizen engagement footpint for May 2014

This post main message is that I have decided to consider myself an Engaged Global Citizen.

Below you can see the global footprint of my tweets from April 30 to May 29, 2014. Please take a look at the distribution of 359 clicks on bitly links.

CountryClicks

  • United States ( US )
    155
  • Dominican Republic ( DO )
    64
  • Spain ( ES )
    20
  • Mexico ( MX )
    18
  • Philippines ( PH )
    13
  • Canada ( CA )
    11
  • Australia ( AU )
    8
  • Ecuador ( EC )
    7
  • United Kingdom ( GB )
    7
  • Germany ( DE )
    6
  • France ( FR )
    4
  • Hong Kong ( HK )
    4
  • India ( IN )
    4
  • Saudi Arabia ( SA )
    4
  • Italy ( IT )
    3
  • Malaysia ( MY )
    3
  • Japan ( JP )
    2
  • Netherlands ( NL )
    2
  • Portugal ( PT )
    2
  • Poland ( PL )
    2
  • Slovakia ( SK )
    2
  • Belgium ( BE )
    1
  • Switzerland ( CH )
    1
  • Honduras ( HN )
    1
  • Brazil ( BR )
    1
  • Puerto Rico ( PR )
    1
  • Nicaragua ( NI )
    1
  • Taiwan ( TW )
    1
  • New Zealand ( NZ )
    1
  • Egypt ( EG )
    1
  • Guatemala ( GT )
    1
  • South Africa ( ZA )
    1
  • European Union ( EU )
    1
  • Jamaica ( JM )
    1
  • Singapore ( SG )
    1
  • Korea, Republic of ( KR )
    1
  • Kuwait ( KW )
    1
  • Israel ( IL )
    1

sábado, mayo 24, 2014

Twitter: ¿Debería ser el primer punto del #PactoElectrico Innovación: puerta al progreso? exitó la gente esta semana.



Jose A Vanderhorst S,
See your week in review.

These Tweets helped you make connections, got people excited, and started your friends talking.
Jose A Vanderhorst S
736
Total
Views
14
New
Followers
11
Retweets
YOUR MOST POPULAR TWEETS FOR THE WEEK OF 17 MAY:
WELL DONE! THIS TWEET GOT PEOPLE EXCITED.
¿Debería ser el primer punto del #PactoElectrico Innovación: puerta al progreso? bit.ly/333GMH
09:55 AM - 15 May 14
200 Views1 Favorite2 Replies3 Retweets
NICE! PEOPLE WERE INTERESTED IN THIS LINK.
@elkascheker @andresvander #PactoElectrico See under Forbes' Steve Denning article "What Thomas Piketty Got Wrong" bit.ly/347GMH
06:13 AM - 20 May 14
83 Views1 Link Visit2 Retweets
YOU GOT SOME ATTENTION WITH THIS TWEET.
@pousuazo @marckgomez46 No hay factor deteminante#PactoElectrico Es problema Tipo III (perverso o sistémico) sin definición clara todavía.
01:36 PM - 15 May 14
159 Views1 Retweet
Say it with a #hashtag!
Hashtags make your Tweets more visible.

viernes, mayo 23, 2014

Sequence of tweets @InfoEcon @fjmep about Is NRG Energy repeating a platform strategic mistake? http://bit.ly/350GMH



lunes, mayo 19, 2014

A comment posted under Forbes' Steve Denning article "What Thomas Piketty Got Wrong"

“Even if none of Piketty’s theories stands up, the establishment of this fact has transformed political discourse and is a Nobel Prize-worthy contribution.” -- Larry Summers, The Inequality Puzzle.

Dear Mr. Denning,

Thank you for your interesting review of What Thomas Piketty Got Wrong. This comment is a continuation of my comment "I guess that the attention Piketty is receiving will lead to the new economics," posted under your article Is The Creative Economy Also In Trouble? We should hope that such attention continue.

At the beginning of the month he and 14 others wrote the article Our manifesto for Europe, which was published on The Guardian. That manifesto says that "The central issue is simple: democracy and the public authorities must be enabled to regain control of and effectively regulate 21st century globalised financial capitalism." However, I believe they are jumping to conclusions with three proposals that need to be reconsidered based on what follows.

I guess the most important issue with his book refers to the future, as you have been pointing out both in the article and in the comments. This starts with the same error of Ricardo's extrapolation, under the assumption that the future is a continuation of the past. That assumption is integral to the restriction of his macroeconomics tools. But today, it is possible to learn from the emergent future. In addition, such learning is leading increasing returns based on positive feedback.

While positive feedback is behind virtuous circle growth, it is also behind vicious circles induced by good (mediocre) management, as Jim Collins (and his research team) empiric evidence suggest in the book Good to Great. See chapter 8, "The flywheel and the doom loop." Only 11 out of 1,435 companies selected from the Fortune 500, from 1965 to 1995, made the leap from good to great. On the back of the book there is a quote by Peter Drucker that says:
This carefully researched and well written book disproves most of the current management hype – from the cult of the superhuman CEO to the cult of IT to the acquisitions and merger mania. It will not enable mediocrity to become competence. But it should enable competence to become excellence.
Like Eamonn Kelly in his book Powerful Times, I believe that "the stakes are too high: our era is too complex, its challenges too significant, its promises too great, and its velocity to fast for us to simply react. Rather, we must amplify the power of our brains, individually and collectively, to match our new circumstances." A bit later he adds "the lucky news is that we have never, as a planet, been more equipped to make sense out of utter complexity..."

While Piketty is concentrated in learning from the past on the financial system, I have been concentrated on the electricity system to help learn from the emerging future. The difference is that instead of growing inequality, we should expect most countries to become egalitarian. Please take a look at the first paragraph of the summary of the paper A complete and fully functional electricity restructuring proposal, where I suggest that we should enter a different civilization that has been emerging as predicted by Alvin Toffler in his book The Third Wave:
Adequate electricity system restructuring is a key subsystem component of the adequate global society system restructuring needed to enter the Golden Age of the first technological revolution of what this author conjecture is a systemic civilization. From a heuristic system architecting perspective that Golden Age will be the result of the design of the value creation generated by the highly complex socio economic system that none of the subsystems by themselves is able to provide. Such value is the result of the relationships among global society subsystems.

viernes, mayo 16, 2014

MY MOST POPULAR TWEETS FOR THE WEEK OF 09 MAY


  
Jose A Vanderhorst S,
See your week in review.
 
   
 
These Tweets helped you make connections, got people excited, and started your friends talking.
 
 
Jose A Vanderhorst S 
 
716
 
Total
Views
 
 
 
10
 
New
Followers
 
 
 
10
 
 
Retweets
 
 
 
 
YOUR MOST POPULAR TWEETS FOR THE WEEK OF 09 MAY:
 
 
 THIS LINK GOT A LOT OF VISITS. 
 
 
 
#PactoElectrico From good Win/Lose Smart Grid Standards to a Win/Win great Minimalist Architecture bit.ly/339GMH
 
10:54 AM - 08 May 14
 
 
 
 
 253 Views  3 Link Visits  3 Retweets
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 NICE! PEOPLE WERE INTERESTED IN THIS LINK. 
 
 
 
#PactoElectrico The EWPC Architecture Framework Avalanchebit.ly/342GMH
 
01:27 PM - 09 May 14
 
 
 
 
 182 Views  1 Link Visit  2 Retweets
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 NICE! PEOPLE WERE INTERESTED IN THIS LINK. 
 
 
 
9 EWPC blog posts that shows an avalanche to the electric power industry from April 9 to May 9, 2014 #PactoElectrico bit.ly/343GMH
 
04:15 PM - 10 May 14
 
 
 
 
 179 Views  1 Retweet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Great job this week!
Why not tweet about it?