domingo, junio 15, 2014

Invitación a conversar sobre las posibilidades de “los otros” trabajadores que tienen la “pasión del explorador.”

Antecedente: esta nota sigue la iniciativa de los chilenos, sobre la necesidad de introducir conversaciones que van más allá de las pragmáticas (para la acción), que aparece inicialmente al final del resumen del artículo de fondo Innovación: puerta al progreso, donde escribí que: “… es obligatorio darles cabida a esas conversaciones que abren posibilidades innovadoras para los sectores productivos, que sugiero sea antes del inicio del Pacto Eléctrico.” 

En ese sentido, aquí sugiero una conversación para abrir posibilidades en respuesta a lo que Ines Aispun, denominó “Los otros,” el 12 de junio, en la columna AM. de Diario Libre, donde concluye entre paréntesis, “Pero... ¿ puede el país darse el lujo de despreciar toda esa experiencia?” Ella describe esa situación como:
El mercado laboral está expulsando a un buen número de profesionales que no tienen 20 años para empezar de nuevo, pero sí tienen 20 y 25 años de experiencia probada. Se han formado, especializado, y la sociedad y las empresas han invertido tiempo y dinero en ellos. Ellos mismos han invertido muchas horas de su vida personal y capital propio o familiar en consolidar su carrera. 
Pero hoy no encuentran trabajo. Tienen hijos en edad escolar y universitaria, una hipoteca o un alquiler que honrar, probablemente mantienen a algún mayor de su familia. Y están desempleados. Los descarta el sector industrial, el bancario, el tecnológico y medianas empresas que no sobreviven a un entorno desfavorable. 
Propongo que el país no puede darse el lujo de despreciar todos esos profesionales. Aquellos que puedan demostrar que tienen “la pasión del explorador,” los necesitamos más que nunca. Muchos de esos profesionales son expulsados porque los sectores productivos necesitan comprender que el mundo cambió radicalmente como verán a seguidas:

La idea de que el entorno es desfavorable es defectuosa. Al contrario, el entorno DR-CAFTA es uno de los más favorables que existe en la actualidad, ya que nos abre el mercado de exportación más grande del mundo. Esto lo explico más adelante en los dos comentarios que hice debajo del artículo The Most And Least Reliable Countries To Do Business In publicado en la revista Forbes. Dado que aparecemos en el lugar más desfavorable de la lista, varios comentarios en defensa del país han sido escritos debajo del artículo.

Como verán en el primer comentario, digo que desarrollé “la pasión del explorador” desde 1965. Ese concepto proviene de uno de los artículos que apoyan el Shift Index, que se menciona en mis dos comentarios. Lo que sigue es una traducción libre, tomada del resumen ejecutivo del informe “unlocking the passion of the explorer,” que es parte de la serie del Shift Index 2013, redactado por John Hagel III, John Seely Brown (JSB) y Tamara Samoylova.
Debemos encontrar la manera de prosperar -- y no simplemente sobrevivir -- en esta nueva incertidumbre, y creemos que los individuos con la pasión del trabajador serán la clave. Tres atributos caracterizan la pasión del trabajador: el ompromiso de dominio y el surfear (aprovechando la sugerencia indirecta de Fernando Flores) y la disposición a conectar. El compromiso de dominio se puede entender como un deseo de tener un impacto duradero y creciente en una industria o función particular. Trabajadores con la disposición a surfear buscan activamente los retos de mejorar rápidamente su desempeño. Trabajadores con la disposición a conectar buscan profundas interacciones con los demás y construir relaciones sólidas y basadas en la confianza de obtener una nueva perspectiva. En conjunto, estos atributos definen la "pasión del explorador"-- la pasión trabajador que conduce a una mejora extrema desempeño sostenido.  
Si bien la pasión del explorador es fácil de encontrar en el mundo de los juegos en línea y los deportes extremos, es en gran medida ausente en el entorno corporativo. Los resultados de un reciente estudio de Deloitte de la fuerza laboral de EE.UU. revelan que sólo el 11 por ciento tienen los tres atributos que componen la pasión del trabajador. Los resultados no son sorprendentes, teniendo en cuenta muchas de nuestras organizaciones todavía están estructurados para maximizar la eficiencia a través de funciones claramente definidas y estrechamente integradas para eliminar la varianza en contra de las previsiones. 
Yo aproveché para tratar de poner en contexto la importancia del sector eléctrico para los sectores productivos en ocasión del foro de ANJE de mañana lunes. El primer comentario dice lo siguiente:
 “You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.” –Buckminster Fuller  
Dear Susan Adams,  
Thank you for the opportunity to humbly leverage your article a bit. While I respect what other Dominicans have written, probably based on current truth filters of consensus, authority, consistency, revelation, and/or durability, as Alvin & Heidi Toffler, say in their book “Revolutionary Wealth.” They also add that “Science is different from all the other truth-test criteria. It is the only one that itself depends on rigorous testing.” That’s the reason why I will try to base my comment in an action oriented scientific attitude. 
Instead of looking it as a problem for the Dominican Republic, I find it as a source for opportunities to attract the right kind of foreign investment as part of DR-CAFTA. I don’t know if FM Global is conflating reliability with resilience. Below I will try to explain the difference in the case of electricity, which is where I have developed “the passion of the explorer” since 1965.  
One of our problems in the Dominican Republic is that we missed a lot of the benefits of the industrial civilization and have not understood yet, like most companies in the US, that we are in what Deloitte’s John Hagel III calls “the Big Shift in the global business environment.” The reliable characteristic of the Big Shift is a “secular decline in return on assets over the last 47 years,” which assets are now at one fourth of their initial value. No wonder our electricity assets don’t help us. One key difference of the Big Shift is going from a decreasing return sellers’ market to an increasing returns buyers’ market.  
To me that Big Shift is a transition from what Alvin Toffler calls the Second Wave (industrial civilization) to the Third Wave (which in my blogs I humbly call systemic civilization).  
From 1992 to 1999, we had a very unreliable electricity system that was compensated with a very vibrant everyone for himself individual solutions, which provided resilience to all industrial and commercial and many residential customers and the economy. Then a law was passed to enable wholesale deregulation (to “save” the electric system, which could be seen as similar to the railroad system) without retail deregulation, which is where most increasing returns reside. The idea behind was a 2nd Wave low cost strategy instead of a 3er Wave differentiation strategy. That’s one of the main reasons our private sector is hurting, but they are not aware yet.  
We Dominicans can’t deny that we have one of the worst and longer systemic crisis in electricity in the world, which means we also have the greatest opportunities in front of us to attract investments in competitive retail marketing of electricity, which is one strategy to start to get ourselves very fast out of FM Global’s list of 25 least reliable countries. To do it, we need 3rd Wave long term production capital investments, instead of 2nd Wave short run financial capital, that’s running our electric power sector.  
That’s the reason of the following tweet:  
@gmh_upsa – While “missing 66 countries,” @wmalamud Foro @ANJE_RD #PactoElectrico changing electricity law would help us a lot http://bit.ly/369GMH 
That link leads to the post “A DC Circuit Court Decision finds a flawed regulatory construct in the power industry: here is a properly functioning marketplace proposal.” Alternatively from that link, you can instead Google it. 
El otro comentario dice lo siguiente:
Dear Susan Adams,  
This is an update to my comment, with respect to your question “When you evaluate your international customers, do you care about the stability of their business environment?”  
That question is related to your one year old article ‘Survey Suggests Most Executives Are In Over Their Heads,” of which Steve Denning said “Susan Adams had a great article in Forbes last week, reporting on a recent survey conducted by Booz & Co.,” in the first paragraph of his article “Good News! Execs Realize They Are ‘In Over Their Heads’.”  
While Booz & Co. give credit to support that “most executives are in over their heads,” Mr. Denning goes on to give credit to John Hagel III “Big Shift,” with is based on the sound empiric research that led to the Shift Index, using an action oriented scientific attitude as the truth filter. The existence of the reality of such a “Big Shift” of civilization might put into question the value of the use of durability, for example, the number of years of company existence, as a reliable truth filter.

viernes, junio 13, 2014

A DC Circuit Court Decision finds a flawed regulatory construct in the power industry: here is a properly functioning marketplace proposal

“To the degree different industry stakeholders may now have a challenge on their hands related to the court’s decision, the root cause is a flawed regulatory construct.” -- The DC Circuit Court Decision on Order No. 745

To address the Demand Response root cause, please take a look at the EWPC Blog post A complete and fully functional electricity restructuring proposal. It will be easy to see in that post that the source of that root cause is in the 1992 United States Energy Policy Act. Further support for the marketplace can be found through the post EWPC Blog full access index update now with over 890,000 total views,

Such a proposal can be said to have socially started with the article “a Dominican strategy: customer-oriented risk management,” published in the May/June 2006 issue of the IEEE Power & Energy magazine. During the acceptance and publication process of that article, it seems that the first article that addressed the root cause is An Alternative Business Case for Demand Response, published by EnergyPulse on November 2005. While the first article was considered to have a scope for developing countries, the second might now be considered a seminal article, not just for the US, but for the whole global electric power industry.

At last, the DC Circuit Court Decision, fully supports the alternative: “The natural place for DR is on the retail side of the markets, where customers can observe electricity prices and make a choice about whether to consume energy or to curtail their demand for that energy. By necessity under the FPA, this will require FERC to actively engage the states, which have the retail jurisdiction FERC lacks. In my mind, enabling functioning price-responsive demand is the right answer to the conundrum in which we now find ourselves, and it is where the Commission should expend the bulk of its efforts. Price-responsive demand cuts to the heart of the matter. It provides all of the proper price-forming benefits the Commission seeks, but without concocting unwieldy, convoluted and bureaucratically complex schemes to pay consumers not to consume power. It pierces the veil that exists between the wholesale and retail sides of the electricity business; a veil made thick by the statutory construct that separates federal jurisdiction from that of the states. In a world of robust price-responsive demand, end-use consumers, aided by advanced demand side management devices enabled by a smarter grid, are able to fulfill their role on the demand side of the equation. The result, in short, would be a properly functioning marketplace.”

Para @ANJE_RD mis tweets más populares semana: por #PactoElectrico y #AFPs que se refuercen rentablemente en #DRCAFTA


Jose A Vanderhorst S,
See your week in review.

These Tweets helped you make connections, got people excited, and started your friends talking.
Jose A Vanderhorst S
541
Total
views
9
New
followers
9
Retweets
YOUR MOST POPULAR TWEETS FOR THE WEEK OF 06 JUN:
YOUR LINK GOT A LOT OF INTERACTION.
@pousuazo @ElDia_do @finjusrd alternativa a #Bandex con#PactoElectrico que se refuerza competitivamente con AFPsbit.ly/360GMH
09:01 AM - 05 Jun 14
182 views1 Retweet
NICE! PEOPLE WERE INTERESTED IN THIS LINK.
Mejor uso AFPs: @UCiudadanocomun @fcapellan1 hagamoslos parte#PactoElectrico p/ elevar competitividad en DR-CAFTA bit.ly/360GMH
10:09 AM - 07 Jun 14
34 views1 reply1 link visit1 Retweet
YOUR LINK GOT A LOT OF INTERACTION.
Tolalmente de acuerdo @UCiudadanocomun | @fcapellan1 la propuesta bit.ly/360GMH es que se refuercen mutuamente de forma rentable.
12:56 PM - 07 Jun 14
39 views1 link visit1 Retweet

viernes, junio 06, 2014

MY MOST POPULAR TWEETS FOR THE WEEK OF 30 MAY 2014


  
Jose A Vanderhorst S,
See your week in review.
 
   
 
These Tweets helped you make connections, got people excited, and started your friends talking.
 
 
Jose A Vanderhorst S 
 
589
 
Total
views
 
 
 
9
 
 
Retweets
 
 
 
4
 
Link
visits
 
 
 
 
YOUR MOST POPULAR TWEETS FOR THE WEEK OF 30 MAY:
 
 
 NICE. PEOPLE GOT INTO THIS TWEET. 
 
 
 
#Pactoelectrico "Es más decisivo que nunca saber por qué creemos lo que creemos" -- Alvin and Heidi Toffler, La Revolución de la Riqueza
 
10:17 AM - 03 Jun 14
 
 
 
 
 171 views  2 Retweets
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 YOUR LINK GOT A LOT OF INTERACTION. 
 
 
 
No podemos resolver los problemas #PactoElectrico usando el mismo tipo de pensamiento que usamos cuando se crearon bit.ly/357GMH
 
08:12 AM - 03 Jun 14
 
 
 
 
 164 views  2 Retweets
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 YOUR LINK GOT A LOT OF INTERACTION. 
 
 
 
#PactoElectrico Alternative EWPC scenario (hyperlinks added) to IEEE Spectrum's The Rise of the Personal Power bit.ly/356GMH
 
09:08 AM - 30 May 14
 
 
 
 
 90 views  2 Retweets
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
ccc

jueves, junio 05, 2014

#PactoElectrico que impulsa Rueda Volante via acceso competitivo a Fondos de Pensión






En vez de obligar a los fondos de Pensión a destinar 10 por ciento de sus fondos en BANDEX, es mucho mejor que las AFPs sean parte del #PactoEléctrico para impulsar una transformación, del actual Ciclo Fatal donde unos ganan y otros pierden, a una Rueda Volante donde todos tienen la oportunidad de ganar, con un Servicio eléctrico sobresaliente. De esa forma las empresas podrán acudir de forma competitiva a las AFPs para hacer las transformaciones que tengan sentido económico, especialmente para hacer ajustes que les permitan generar exportaciones de mayor valor igualmente competitivas.

lunes, junio 02, 2014

Primero @giovannida responde por favor el siguiente dilemma sobre la inversión del video

 

El 24 de mayo del 2014, en el Grupo de Facebook MENTIRAS Y VERDADES - VERDADES A MEDIAS, Miriam Then colocó un video como ese, escribió mi nombre y agregó " a ver qué opina." Mi respuesta, en la que cité el artículo A Capitalist’s Dilemma, Whoever Wins on Tuesday, de CLAYTON M. CHRISTENSEN, del 3 de novembre del 2012, fue "Before I am able to respond you, please answer this dilemma:"
The Fed has been injecting more and more capital into the economy because — at least in theory — capital fuels capitalism. And yet cash hoards in the billions are sitting unused on the pristine balance sheets of Fortune 500 corporations. Billions in capital is also sitting inert and uninvested at private equity funds. 
Capitalists seem almost uninterested in capitalism, even as entrepreneurs eager to start companies find that they can’t get financing. Businesses and investors sound like the Ancient Mariner, who complained of “Water, water everywhere — nor any drop to drink.”

domingo, junio 01, 2014

Two systemic crises that no one can fix: Veteran Heath Administration and electric power services

"We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them." -- Albert Einstein. 
Like President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, President Barack Obama is facing a critical systemic problem in the Veteran Administration (VA). Roosevelt addressed a systemic banking crisis with a limited insurance savings proposal that people were not expecting but love.

In the case of the VA a proposal with support to eventually end the need for wars is something no one is expecting but will love. It is easy to anticipate that as societies get more civilized, the opportunity for deeper and authentic dialogue to deal with differences reduces even further the need for war.

My humble suggestion is to use a new kind of thinking to facilitate a shift from the industrial civilization to the post industrial one. The VA case is a specific instance of a large number of wicked or systemic problems being mishandled all over the world, which were created probably as unintended consequences of using the industrial civilization kind of thinking.

In general, the suggestion is that systemic problems need to first find a beachhead to be able to cross what Geoffrey A. Moore named “the Chasm.” He says that to cross it you first need a pragmatist in pain to address an intractable problem, like president Roosevelt did during the Great Depression. After a leader shows that’s possible, they need a few other systemic problems to also cross the Chasm, which he calls a Bowling Pin strategy. Then they get into a Tornado strategy where all kinds of wicked problems are addressed to let leading his community to change to a new civilization.

The above come from his book “Crossing the Chasm,” a BusinessWeek Bestseller, where he said “The real news, however, is not the two cracks in the bell curve, the one between the innovators and the early adopters, the other between early and late majority. No, the real news is the deep and dividing chasm that separates the early adopters from the early majority. This is by far the most formidable and unforgiving transition in the Technology Adoption Life Cycle and it is the more dangerous because it typically goes unrecognized.”

In this humble suggestion to leaders of the world, I urge that both presidents Obama and Danilo Medina need to recognize they are pragmatists in pain with respect to the Chasm relative to the VA and electricity crises. As we will see below, President Medina, with the support of President Obama, can use the systemic electricity problem of the Dominican Republic to be the first to cross the Chasm to show that it is possible. I am quite sure that many people before me have made proposals to address systemic problems that have ended in the Chasm.

Here is another argument, for example, in support of a future without the incentive for war. While the US was heading to lead the 4th technological revolution, as described by Carlota Pérez, in her book “TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS AND FINANCIAL CAPITAL: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages,” other countries decided to fight to remain in the 3rd technological revolution. In a longer time period, that was similar to what happened during the revolutionary wars for independence between the agricultural revolution and the industrial revolution.

In his book The Third Wave, Alvin Toffler shows repeatedly a surprising insight that the shift from the First Wave agricultural civilization to the Second Wave industrial civilization was totally neutral of the political, social, cultural fundamental differences between countries that led to wars. In addition, their new book Revolutionary Wealth he and his wife Heidi further explain why the waves shift had nothing to do with those fundamental differences, but with what they identify as deep fundamentals.

After learning from that recent book that those deep fundamentals “form a system,” I recognized them as systems essentials. The examples of systems essentials, for example, work, time, space and knowledge, shown in chapters 4 to 22, are shifting greatly without most people awareness to strongly support the civilization leap in the making even without wars.

That’s the main motive to suggest diplomatic efforts to agree on the emergence of the post industrial civilization, that I have suggested elsewhere is the systemic civilization, in which will be able to even dissolve (not need to be solved) many systemic problems. The reasons why I suggest world leaders to take such risks is based on insights that emerged while dealing with the electricity systemic problem which can be seen under the post Alternative EWPC scenario (hyperlinks added) to IEEE Spectrum's The Rise of the Personal Power

Here is the reason of the suggestion to address the systemic electricity crisis as the first to cross the Chasm. Using two interesting systemic metaphors, we can see from the EWPC scenario how the Dominican electricity crisis is just the tip of the iceberg of an essential system crisis that is already transforming the U.S. electric power industry that’s under a severe avalanche discovered and documented during April and May 2014. Next is how important those metaphors are.

In “Managing the Metaphors for Change,” Robert Marshak, suggested that paying attention to metaphors “… become a critical competency for leaders and change agents.” As it happened, at the outset of my involvement on the Dominican Republic electricity crisis, in 1996, I am happy to recall that I started from the solid foundations of Marshak’s insides.

In the case of the VA systemic crisis the underlying quote “We don’t have time for distractions,” Mr. Obama said. “We need to fix the problem,” is that of a non systemic mechanical thinking metaphor. Taking it at face value, with industrial civilization thinking, this article can be easily dismissed as an off topic distraction. Please don’t.

Giving me instead the benefit of the doubt, if we look closely at what By MICHAEL D. SHEAR and RICHARD A. OPPEL Jr. wrote on MAY 30, 2014 edition of the New York Times, under the article “V.A. Chief Resigns in Face of Furor on Delayed Care,” we see a distraction behind the reporters thinking in that “Fixing the problem at the department now becomes an urgent political matter for the president, once again raising questions about whether the candidate who pledged in 2008 and 2012 to make government work efficiently has lost grasp of the government he now leads.”

But Mr. Obama and Mr. Medina are not alone on the many systemic problems being faced all over the world. In the VA systemic problem Mr. Obama is facing, for example, cause and effect are not close in the essential system variables of time (other presidents started the wars before him) and space (Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan). In the post-industrial civilization it is no longer acceptable to get stuck under machine metaphor thinking, but that kind of thinking continuous still widespread. We need to cross the Chasm from the industrial civilization to the systemic civilization as soon as possible.

Are these the only systemic crises that no one can’t fix? In his article, Marshak describes two other kinds of metaphors: developmental and transitional neither of which is able to deal with systemic crises. It is easy to see that we should not be dealing either with the images “build and develop,” or those with “move and relocate.”

Without getting involved here in the details, the metaphor being considered in IEEE Spectrum's The Rise of the Personal Power is the transitional one to move the electric power industry into the digital world. With EWPC we are actually dealing with the transformational metaphor of the “liberate and recreate” image as part of an emergent civilization. That’s how we will be able to add the much needed systemic leverage to the industry.

What’s needed is to reinvent government by introducing the systemic civilization. In fact, the Access Audit findings reveal “a systemic lack of integrity within some Veteran Health Administration facilities.” That only some were discovered in Phase One of the audit is not to be taken lightly, because as wicked (systemic) problems behave as icebergs, from which can easily see only the tip of the problem, as many were flagged for further review. As the audit might lead to a witch hunt “… suspected willful misconduct” to be fixed with “appropriate personnel actions” that “ will be pursued promptly.”