Do Players in 1st and 2nd Place in Smart Grid 2025 Game Deserve to be Call Winners? Part II

Jose Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio | Mar 31, 2011

        

April 4, 2011, Update: a key insight emerged, while elaborating the EWPC post A Proposal to Declare the Winners of the IEEE Spectrum Smart Grid 2025 Game: the 20 points awarded by the Foresight Guides, when they identified a "Super-interesting" Card, lost its value as the points earned by players increased as shown below. That insight shifts the importance to said proposal that addresses the distortion on the Foresight Engine system.

Tomorrow April 1^st, will be two full weeks from the end of IEEE Spectrum Smart Grid 2025 Game, without any update to enable the players and the public learn about the winners. This report is intended to change that, giving additional evidence to help anyone easily respond to the EWPC post Was the EWPC-AF_Creator the All Around Winner of the Smart Grid 2025 Game?

The evidence is in the particular engagement, shown play by play in Part I and also below in this Part II.  Raul V.R., from Spain, and Greg, from Europe, seem to have avoided the expected plays, in order to get to the first and second position of the Leaderboard, respectively. At least two observations help show if they played a game or not to deserve its leadership:

1. It is important to notice (see Part I ) that they both avoided two very important Cards, played by fiskus, from Melbourne, Australia, just 12 and 13 seconds after the start of the mentioned engagement. It is evident that either the Momentum or the Antagonism Micro-forecasts had the potential to show critical weaknesses of the Positive Imagination Micro-forecast. As can be seen, those weaknesses showed up soon as Raul and Greg interacted, but not on the points they received from the system, that, as you may see, grow near the power of two.
2. It is also important to highlight, that Greg, who only played 20 cards during the 24 hours, did not defend either his initial Micro-forecast, when capt_stargazer started to participate (see below), by playing the Antagonism Card “Definitely utopian.” Instead, Greg avoids it. In fact, the original Positive imagination is forgotten and continued by Raul V.R in a different direction set by capt_stargazer who, as can be seen, takes control of the engagement, but no the points.

Card Number	Time	Card Followed	Player Name	Type of Card Played	Micro-forecast or idea	Points for player
3829	3/18/2011 10:59	3824	capt_stargazer	Antagonism	Definitely utopian.	3,807
3842	3/18/2011 11:07	3829	Raul V.R.	Adaptation	I agree in part. The increasing complexity of future systems could lead to higher standards in political life	1,903
3862	3/18/2011 11:22	3842	capt_stargazer	Antagonism	That assumes correlation between technological sophistication and human governance.  The former, great progress. The latter, less so.	951
3885	3/18/2011 11:35	3862	Raul V.R.	Momentum	I agree. Too technological governance can lead to deshumanize societies	475
3888	3/18/2011 11:37	3885	capt_stargazer	Momentum	Especially if the governance is so complex it must be controlled by AI or semi-automated systems beyond human comprehension.	237
3923	3/18/2011 11:51	3888	rmadams	Adaptation	When governance is described by consistent and completely-described rules, the playing field can be significantly leveled for everyone...	111
3933	3/18/2011 11:56	3923	capt_stargazer	Antagonism	Godel demonstrated the impossibility of such rules.  No rule set can completely describe itself, thereby making total governance impossible.	55
3939	3/18/2011 12:00	3933	rmadams	Adaptation	Fair enough- but the rules themselves can completely describe the governing actions, which is what matters- and what differs from custom...	27
3945	3/18/2011 12:02	3939	capt_stargazer	Adaptation	I see your point.  I am still dubious of strict rule sets.  My experience in policy suggests the more complex, the less they are followed.	13
3956	3/18/2011 12:09	3945	rmadams	Adaptation	You are right, of course, but the advantage of strict rule sets is that they are at least well-understood.  No smoky back-room deals	3
3997	3/18/2011 12:26	3956	capt_stargazer	Adaptation	Agreed.  Would love to seem them if easily created and followed.  Just fear they tend to be neither!	1
3977	3/18/2011 12:18	3945	PonyXpress	Momentum	Have you seen how the world within The World of Warcraft is configured? Talk about complicated!! Yet there's gazillion self-opted in players	3
4003	3/18/2011 12:29	3977	capt_stargazer	Adaptation	Good example, but that also emerged incrementally over time, didn't it?  It wasn't designed in one fell swoop.	1
3906	3/18/2011 11:44	3888	Raul V.R.	Momentum	Finally humanity is controlled by a few technological lobbies...	7
3919	3/18/2011 11:49	3906	capt_stargazer	Momentum	Making 2025 look rather similar to today!	3
3922	3/18/2011 11:51	3919	Raul V.R.	Momentum	Right! Humanity destiny is dark... ;). Hope we are miss	1
3835	3/18/2011 11:03	3824	Greg	Adaptation	Or at least \traditional\" politician will intake more of technicians and scientists advice into ccount"	3
3846	3/18/2011 11:09	3835	Raul V.R.	Momentum	Definitely, they will need huge high quality advice; Hope they are aware of it	1
3791	3/18/2011 10:39	3785	Raul V.R.	Momentum	Totally agree: most of governments have very low and short minded people in politics.	7
3795	3/18/2011 10:43	3791	lucknau	Momentum	True. Changing the minds of politicians will probably require reframing the issue as one of energy security and reliability.	3
3802	3/18/2011 10:47	3795	Raul V.R.	Adaptation	I think the point is getting the best people of the private sector becoming interested in politics and society	1

yyy

Did a Paradigm Shift Emerge in the 24 Hours of the IEEE Spectrum Smart Grid 2025 Game? Part III

Jose Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio | Mar 21, 2011

        

Last 20 plays. Continuation of the 60 plays on the IEEE Spectrum Smart Grid 2025 Game of Part I and Part II  

4373	3/18/2011 14:32	4295	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	Investigation	Me too!	1	0	0
4008	3/18/2011 12:30	3988	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	Investigation	The redundant gas turbine wastes a lot of gas waiting for a problem. Demand response does not waste that much.	7	2	0
4016	3/18/2011 12:34	4008	capt_stargazer	365	Investigation	So multiply the number of users who can draw from the system by creating smarter demand, not supply?	3	1	0
4079	3/18/2011 12:57	4016	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	Investigation	Exactly! Notice also that customers have different preferences in the Technology Adoption Life Cycle. They wait for a Killer application	1	0	0
3821	3/18/2011 10:56	3816	ligtvoet	387	Adaptation	But generally with 1 hour or 15 minute intervals. These could be shortened, thus reducing costs of imbalance.	3	1	0
3951	3/18/2011 12:06	3821	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	Adaptation	That's right! But, integrating varying solar and wind generation makes it more difficult.	1	0	0
1138	3/17/2011 18:13	140	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	Antagonism	That is the reason why the current Smart Grid \...implementation and integration process ...is fragmented and uneven\""	13	4	0
1224	3/17/2011 18:27	1138	Smarts	481	Antagonism	There are about 3000 utilites in the US each is 'doing its own thing' when it comes adopting smart technologies. Guaranteed fragmentation...	5	2	0
2799	3/18/2011 0:43	1224	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	Antagonism	It does not matter that there are not 3,000, but 10,000 utilities worldwide. No new. Utilities have been adopting new technologies before.	1	0	0
2805	3/18/2011 0:46	1224	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	Antagonism	Develop the necessary electric power policy incentivesstructures to avoid fragmentation, using systems architecture, like #EWPC-AF	1	0	0
3768	3/18/2011 10:26	1138	ligtvoet	387	Antagonism	Surely you don't blame academics for that?	1	0	0
3659	3/18/2011 9:18	140	ligtvoet	387	Adaptation	My colleagues get more work.	0	0	0
453	3/17/2011 17:00	116	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	Investigation	There was a system architecting effort between 2002 and 2004 that led to the system-within-system approach, that only considered technology	0	0	0
148	3/17/2011 16:26	123	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	Investigation	Are you asking for a paradigm shift away from business as usual?	47	5	0
195	3/17/2011 16:32	148	AnuKowli	364	Antagonism	No. I am merely stating engineering goal and economic objectives of the Smart Grid should complement each other and get reflected in policy.	23	4	0
3844	3/18/2011 11:08	195	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	Investigation	\... technology is the easy part to change. The difficult aspects are social, organizational and cultural.\" Donald Norman"	11	3	0
4282	3/18/2011 14:06	3844	AnuKowli	364	Investigation	How do we achieve changes in social, cultural and organizational aspects to move towards a smarter grid? What are the benefits?	5	2	0
4323	3/18/2011 14:18	4282	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	Investigation	Eliminate restriction imposed Areas beyond system architecting “changes to the overall business and regulatory structure of the industry.�	1	0	0
4333	3/18/2011 14:21	4282	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	Investigation	That set the difference between a technological and socio-technical architecting process. The benefit: avoiding the very costly dead end.	1	0	0
813	3/17/2011 17:37	148	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	Momentum	A paradigm shift is needed to consider not only the engineering goal and economic objectives. There is a need to include socio cultural too	0	0	0

yyy

Did a Paradigm Shift Emerge in the 24 Hours of the IEEE Spectrum Smart Grid 2025 Game? Part II

Jose Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio | Mar 21, 2011

        

Next 20 plays. Continuation of the 60 plays on the IEEE Spectrum Smart Grid 2025 Game started on Part I 

1118	3/17/2011 18:11	140	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	Antagonism	The work is for systems architects. The smart grid system-within-system Smart Grid architecture was to create a Walled Garden.	527215	25	0
3657	3/18/2011 9:17	1118	ligtvoet	387	Investigation	I don't quite understand. Wouldn't that destroy the whole idea of a grid?	263607	24	0
3775	3/18/2011 10:31	3657	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	Investigation	As the value added is in the interfaces between subsystems, I would say it in another way. It might destroy the whole idea of a system..	131803	23	0
3786	3/18/2011 10:36	3775	ligtvoet	387	Investigation	But then we wouldn't be talking about a smart grid anymore, but about smart home appliances or smart neigbourhoods?	65901	22	0
3811	3/18/2011 10:51	3786	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	Investigation	It would still be a SG. The problem is on the idea with real time, when for most of the loads it will be at most near real time.	1	0	0
3816	3/18/2011 10:53	3786	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	Investigation	Most economic transactions are executed before real time operation under the control of the whole system by the system operator.	32949	20	0
3819	3/18/2011 10:55	3816	capt_stargazer	365	Antagonism	Who is the system operator?  System controls far too complex to be managed by humans; \normal accidents\" result."	16471	17	0
3949	3/18/2011 12:04	3819	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	Antagonism	The system operators of the power industry has been operating for years. They use what's called unit commitent which involve redundancy.	8235	16	0
3988	3/18/2011 12:23	3949	capt_stargazer	365	Investigation	Isn't the point of an SG to remove redundancy and improve efficiency?  Different class of problem than today, right?	4117	15	0
4001	3/18/2011 12:29	3988	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	Investigation	The thing is that it is cheaper to replace the redundancy on the supply side (i.e. gas turbines) with demand side redundancy  - elasticity.	2051	11	0
4010	3/18/2011 12:31	4001	capt_stargazer	365	Investigation	Agreed, so the \draw down\" is what is smart  not the production side  right?"	1025	10	0
4065	3/18/2011 12:53	4010	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	Investigation	Just as the railroads, electric utilities defined their business incorrectly, by ignoring several insights, like Levitt's Marketing Myopia.	1	0	0
4071	3/18/2011 12:54	4010	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	Investigation	For details. please Google the EWPC article Answering “What Energy Business Are You In?� As the Way Out of The Third Depression.	511	8	0
4166	3/18/2011 13:35	4071	capt_stargazer	365	Investigation	Thanks, will do.	255	7	0
4186	3/18/2011 13:40	4166	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	Investigation	You are most welcome!	127	6	0
4188	3/18/2011 13:41	4186	capt_stargazer	365	Investigation	A very fruitful learning conversation.  Look forward to hearing more.	63	5	0
4230	3/18/2011 13:50	4188	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	Investigation	There is supposed to be a mechanism to get in contact. Please look for the \EWPC Blog\""	31	4	0
4240	3/18/2011 13:53	4230	capt_stargazer	365	Investigation	Will do.  Thanks.  Keep up the good (and impassioned) work.	15	3	0
4286	3/18/2011 14:06	4240	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	Investigation	Thank very much! I hope we meet later on. I started this mission in 1995 and it has grown in scope a lot.	7	2	0
4295	3/18/2011 14:09	4286	capt_stargazer	365	Investigation	Would love to someday!  Lets stay in touch, although SG's aren't my main passion.	3	1	0

yyy