sábado, mayo 21, 2016

Un intercambio para #UNASUR a favor del amor (en vez de la rivalidad) en #Venezuela

Cuarta actualización. Caos de #Venezuela: la mayor oportunidad para #GlobalDebout es diálogo generativo. Esto corresponde al siguiente tuit en respuesta al artículo Las claves para que no fracase esta vez el diálogo entre venezolanos escrito por Nelson Espinal Baez. Las imágenes del tuit aparecen después del tuit.


Tercera actalización. Alternativa amorosa a la dura rivalidad que sugiere una fuerza de paz en Venezuela. Lo que sigue corresponde a un tuit que repetí en cinco conversaciones de tuits con la misma intención de hace 10 meses que aparece en la "Segunda actualización. ¿Podrán  Global Debout dominicanos, españoles, europeos ayudar a evitar con amor un derramamiento de sangre en Venezuela?" Es evidente que vivimos a nivel global en medio de violencia física y legalizada que se manifiesta de muchas formas e intensidades.En esta ocasión, mostramos las imágenes de dicho tuit.





 Segunda actualización. ¿Podrán  Global Debout dominicanos, españoles, europeos ayudar a evitar con amor un derramamiento de sangre en Venezuela? Tales ciudadanos conscientes, que pueden venir de otros países, como Colombia, USA, Argentina, Brasil, para nombrar otros pocos,  estarían actuando por encima de la política en sus respectivos países para exigir la transformación de la rivalidad que impulsa la independencia al amor que impulsa la interdependencia, como aparece en el texto incial de esta nota, para darle un ejemplo a los ciudadanos globales de Venezuela y del mundo.


Como se puede escuchar en el video que aparece en la noticia Capriles denuncia un “golpe de Estado” en Venezuela, nos concentramos en lo que dijo Henrique Capriles Radonski que destaca la rivalidad imperante "llamó a sus seguidores a salir a las calles 'para recuperar el hilo constitucional' que, en su opinión, quedó interrumpido con la suspensión del Revocatorio." Esa rivalidad puede llevar a un derramamiento de sangre en Venezuela, como consecuencia del vacío de liferazgo global que hemos mencionado en el texto inicial de esta nota y reiterado en su primera actualización..

Recuperar el hilo constitucional no es conveniente, porque las constiuciones de la gran mayoría de los países indepedendientes se han vuelto cada vez más anti-sistémicas con la creciente penetración de la cuarta revolución de la información. Siguiendo el axioma, "mientras más anti-sistémicas, más local," la forma en que, por ejemplo, los ciudadanos globales dominicanos, españoles y europeos, con países muy anti-sistémicos pueden ayudar a Venezuela, que es posiblemente en estos momentos el país más anti-sistémico del mundo, podemos reforzar mutuamente nuestras causas con una buena disposición para desplazarse el todo hacia constituciones sistémicas para servir de ejemplos a Venezuela y al mundo.

Un primer y más oportuno ejemplo es el de República Dominicana, donde prácticamente todo el pensamiento necesario está desarrollado para ser el marco de referencia global. Cabe indicar que la noticia dice que "Capriles dijo que espera que las fuerzas armadas respalden todas las acciones que se lleven a cabo para restaurar el orden constitucional. 'Esta es una situación que no queríamos", aseguró, "pero ser pacífico no es lo mismo que ser pendejo'."

Al respecto, el caso dominicano tenía recientemente un antecedente indirecto de aproximación al directo que sugerimos aquí al seguir aprendiendo del futuro emergente. El antecedente aparece en la "Quinta actualización. ¿Marcharían los pendejos Global Debout por la causa Un País Sin Apagones para crear la civilización sistémica?" de la nota ¿Estará por encima de la política el cambio de civilización que sugiere José Mujica en su brillante discurso?

Un segundo ejemplo, no menos importante y oportuno, a nivel de pais es España, donde el todo puede desplazarse si toman la decisión de convocar terceras elecciones, en vez de desperdiciar su prolongada crisis, al aceptar la presión de formar gobierno con el PP con la abstención del PSOE. Para organizar terceras elecciones en la que los partidos desengañarán a los votantes, que concentrarán su atención en lograr el equilibrio en el Congreso de los diputados y el Senado en la transición necesaria para implantar la transformación por encima de la política que manda los ciudadanos a establecer una constitución sistémica. Esa constitución sería el patrón para cambios de constititución en los otros países.

El tercer ejemplo, el europeo, lo vemos a seguidas. El mismo se aproxima a lo que propusimos al final de la primera actualización de esta nota que por conveniencia secuencial repetimos aquí:
Para facilitar dicho diálogo generativo a favor de todos los venezolanos, no solo de los intereses enfrentados, puede que la heuristica de la arquitectura de sistemas, que sugiere que al ampliar el alcance de un problema se simplifique el mismo, en vez de concentrar la atención en Venezuela o en UNASUR sobre la obsolescencia del nacionalismo, nos concentremos en el G7 para reclamar la creación de la nueva civilización que obviamente trate sobre la obsolescencia del capitalismo de amiguetes que domina a la oposición.

Una mejor aproximación a la del G7 a la rivalidad que se mantiene en la Unión Europea y que sus ciudadanos a favor del amor pueden demostrar a favor de la interdependencia es la manifestación de grandes proporciones del vacío de liderazgo global acaba de ocurrir con relación al tratado de libre comercio CETA (por sus siglas en inglés) entre Canadá y la Unión Europea. Justo antes de producirse la falla de liderazgo, colocamos un comentario debajo de la noticia La UE negocia contra el reloj para salvar su política comercial, debajo de la cual colocamos el comentario que aparece en la imagen.


 Primera actualización. Diálogo del gobierno y la oposición de #Venezuela sin vacío de liderazgo en #G7. De la noticia El Gobierno de Venezuela y la oposición dialogan en RD, cuyo subtitular dice que "LAS CONVERSACIONES SE LLEVAN A CABO BAJO LA MEDIACIÓN DE TRES EXPRESIDENTES," cabe destacar su última oración que dice "El exjefe del gobierno español, dijo entonces que pediría el respaldo de la comunidad internacional para alcanzar un gran diálogo nacional para discutir una agenda en un plazo razonable."

Como se puede ver en la imagen sobre las puertas giratorias en España, el problema es que dicha comunidad internacional está dominada por el capitalismo de amiguetes que respalda a la oposición. Un diálogo generativo sobre el conflicto venezolano sugiere ir más allá de los intereses de las partes que mantienen la rivalidad entre el nacionalismo que impulsa UNASUR y el capitalismo de amiguetes que impulsa la OEA en un mundo que se describe en la nota Vacío del G7 en liderazgo global ante la nueva civilización reclamada por el 15-M en España.

Para facilitar dicho diálogo generativo a favor de todos los venezolanos, no solo de los intereses enfrentados, puede que la heuristica de la arquitectura de sistemas, que sugiere que al ampliar el alcance de un problema se simplifique el mismo, en vez de concentrar la atención en Venezuela o en UNASUR sobre la obsolescencia del nacionalismo, nos concentremos en el G7 para reclamar la creación de la nueva civilización que obviamente trate sobre la obsolescencia del capitalismo de amiguetes que domina a la oposición.

 Un intercambio para #UNASUR a favor del amor (en vez de la rivalidad) en #Venezuela 

















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martes, mayo 17, 2016

To end nationalism in #RD, #USA, and the #EU we need global interdependentism

The thesis here is that the cure for industrial civilization national independentism is systemic civilization global interdependentism. In the article American Caudillo: Trump and the Latin-Americanization of U.S. Politics, written by Omar G. Encarnación for Foreign Affairs on May 12 2016, we see that what´s written matches perfectly well to Danilo Medina as the new Dominican Caudillo. About Medina, expecting to get the support of a systemic civilization global interdependentism international community, we will only take the representative quote from Encarnación's article that says:
A testament to the remarkable capacity of caudillismo to survive and even thrive following the wave of democratic transition that swept through Latin America since the mid-1980s, this mixing has resulted in a wave of imperial presidencies that appear to have more in common with monarchical rule than with constitutional government.
So we will concentrate on trying to expedite the assumption on which the United States of America and the European Union are organized will be changed and will operate to fit reality. That's the way to fill the global leadership vaccum. I tried to find the opposite of nationalism and didn't get a reasonal answer by learning from the past. By reframing nationalism into the national and the independence elements of the of industrial civilization, it is easy to see the opposites of global and interdependence, by learning from the emergent future which define what we have been calling the systemic civilization.

Each of those two civlizations have their own S-Curves. The industrial civilization is operating in the upper saturation Confort Zone for some people, which is the source, for example, of unstable governments, soaring inequality, climate change and inmigration anti-systemic crisis. The systemic civilization is in the lower low growth zone with a huge potential for entrepreneurs to develop innovations to go to the hypergrowth zone, which is Where the Magic Happens. Next, is a small selection of posts (and updates) that support the emergence of the systemic civilization global interdependentism to address, for example, US and Spanish general elections, Grexit and Brexit.
Fourth update: What about a high leverage European referendum that avoids the Greece's crisis go to waste? of the post A Systemic Civilization Global Declaration of Interdependence

Why the Eurozone leaders must change their common sense first 
Second update. Can #USA2016 be reframed to fit the reality required by #GlobalDebout? of the post Can #GlobalDebaut international call concentrate on an Ashoka like solid framework change?

Tenth update. Help #GlobalDebout entrepreneurs at the Bottom of the Pyramid 'Be discovery driven.' of the post Can we agree with the Second Curve, while not with Handy?

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viernes, mayo 13, 2016

Votante: exige en tu país un gobierno basado en una teoría de negocio ajustada a la realidad.

Segunda actualización. ¿Podrán los miembros de UNASUR y el G7 transformarse al interdependentismo global? UNASUR defensor de países latinos de izquierda puede catalogarse como el ejemplo vivo del nacionalismo (que se destacó abajo en la primera actualización como algo que ha perdido el sustento y necesita desaparecer) en un mundo altamente interdependiente, cuya teoría de negocio se ha evidenciado que está muy alejada de la realidad. Esa es la explicación de lo que sucede a los miembros de UNASUR que están perdiendo importancia. Para resolver las crisis que tiene a favor de los sectores sociales, UNASUR necesita considerar a la brevedad un cambio del nacionalismo al interdependentismo global.

 Es en ese sentido que nos preocupa mucho lo que dice la noticia sobre VENEZUELA  Leonel coordinará el diálogo sobre economía: COMISIÓN. EL OBJETIVO ES “REACTIVAR EL CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO.” Hasta prueba en contrario, los dirigentes de la oposición Venezolana contrarios a las intenciones de UNASUR no es distinta del gobierno actual en Argentina, el provisional en Brasil y como caso excepcional el reelecto en República Dominicana. Como se explicó en el texto inicial de esta nota, todos los dirigentes de ambos bandos siguen una teoría de negocio obsoleta de los Estados que está muy alejada de la realidad. 

Por mala memoria, la alternativa no nacionalista a UNASUR sabemos que es igualmente pésima. Representada por el G7, que en su conjunto es el defensor de los países que mantiene una teoría de los negocios del capitalismo de amiguetes, ya se sabe que es la razón, por ejemplo, de la creciente desigualdad y migración, así como la presente incertidumbre electoral en países como Estados Unidos, España y el Reino Unido que pronto va a decidir si se separa de la Unión Europea.

 Este es un ajuste que complementa la primera actualización que sugiere un cambio del escaso espacio para reactivación económica que existe en la excesivamente saturada civilización industrial al espacio gigante de la prácticamente virgen civilización sistémica. Dominada por el capitalismo de amiguetes global, ¿se reactivará como en Grecia el crecimiento económico, por ejemplo, en Argentina, Brasil y Venezuela como sucede en República Dominicana?  

 En un mundo en grandes cambios, administrar solo proyectando linearmente la escalabilidad de la eficiencia con índices financieros que solo reflejan el pasado es un crazo error. Es necesario impulsar la escalabilidad del aprendizaje abriendo sectores protegidos con regulaciones a favor del capitalismo de amiguetes a la innovación y la competencia, empezando con una Ley Sistémica de Eléctridad cuyos conceptos están disponibles para impulsar un alto apalancamiento no lineal. Lo que los países latinos de América y Europa necesitan reconocer es que en este período revolucionario de cambios de civilización tenemos una ventaja relativa importante para dar un salto (leapfrog) de civilización que no tienen los países industrializados. 

La actividad económica actual, "dirigida" bajo la miopia del capitalismo de amiguetes global, que mantiene países políticamente independientes, pero económicamente dependientes, donde el ejemplo de los países culturalmente latinos es lo que sucede en Grecia. ¿Podrá UNASUR transformarse para apoyar a Argentina, Brasil, Venezuela y por supuesto, a la República Dominicana (que como Grecia se encuentra altamente endeudada) a volverse países interdependientes que puedan ayudar a llenar el vacío de liderazgo global que mantiene el G7.

 Primera actualización. Ciudadano global: ayuda a los venezolanos a resolver su problema con interdependentismo. Aquí se hace un ajuste para pasar al ciudadano global lo que se sugiere al votante: "exige en tu país un gobierno basado en una teoría de negocio ajustada a la realidad." La crisis de Venezuela, al igual que la de Argentina, Brasil, entre otros países, tiene su origen en el fracaso de los políticos dominados por el capitalismo de amiguetes que crearon la oportunidad para que Hugo Chavez, Nestor Kitchner e Ignacio Lula da Silva y sus sucesores llegaran la poder. Ahora en esos países está retornando dicho dominio del capitalismo global de amiguetes ante el vacío de liderazgo global, que los ciudadanos globales debemos exigir.

 En República Dominicana, donde domina el capitalismo de amiguetes, ha sucedido algo similar a lo de Brasil pero en circunstancias diferentes. En todos estos casos y especialmente en Estados Unidos, donde el capitalismo de amiguetes tiene su fuente principal, la teoría de negocio está muy alejada de la realidad, por supuesto, con muchas variantes, que pueden simplificarse a lo mejor como nacionalismo y neoliberalismo.

 Como se puede ver en la nota To end nationalism in #RD, #USA, and the #EU we need global interdependentism (Para finalizar el nacionalismo en República Dominicana, Estados Unidos de América y la Unión Europea necesitamos interdependentismo global). Dicha nota se inicia estableciendo "The thesis here is that the cure for industrial civilization national independentism is systemic civilization global interdependentism," Algo así como "La tesis aquí es que la cura para el independentismo nacional (el nacionalismo) de la civilización industrial es el interdependentismo global de la civilización sistémica.


Para lograr ese ajuste a la realidad que impera con el nacionalismo y el neoliberalismo es necesario que los Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea como los representates más visibles de la comunidad internacional actúen a la brevedad para llenar el vacío de liderazgo global que existe en el mundo de hoy. El impulso que motivó esta actualización fue la noticia Pepe Mujica llama “loco” a Nicolás Maduro: El exmandatario uruguayo dice que el venezolano está “loco como una cabra,” que dice:
 “Están todos locos en Venezuela. Se dicen de todo y así no van a arreglar nada”, dijo Mujica al Canal 10 de televisión desde la localidad de Las Piedras, donde se celebró el aniversario de una batalla clave contra los conquistadores españoles.
No obstante, estamos en desacuerdo con la última oración de la noticia que dice "Los venezolanos tienen que resolver sus problemas entre ellos y eso es lo que más le preocupa..." En tal sentido, si bien tenía sentido esa sugerencia de nacionalismo, no lo tiene bajo el interdependentismo global. Un sustento de esa solución de los problemas de todos los países mencionado corresponde a la nota Límites que van por encima de la política, cuya "Décima actualización. Votante: entérate como volverte la vía no política que resuelve la Gran Recesión global" es clave. Para respaldar el reclamo de los ciudadanos globales (aunque en estos momentos no puedan votar en elecciones, si tienen el derecho a exigir) a los dirigentes de los Estados Unidos de la Unión Europea, dicha actualización expresa lo siguiente:
En adición a ese breve ajuste, hacemos un reajuste al párrafo que le sigue que dice:
El ex-presidente Mujica también afirmó de forma contundente que "Estos son problemas de carácter político que nos están indicando que es hora de empezar a luchar por otra cultura." Aunque anteriormente insistimos en que la arquitectura de sistemas podría estar por encima de la política, debe ser evidente que está por encima de la anti-política,”
Considerando la política como el ejercicio de la democracia representativa, entonces el ejercicio de la democracia directa sea con sufragio o en el mercado, es diferente de la política. En ambos casos, siendo la arquitectura de sistemas la fuente que nos permitió acercarnos a la sabiduría, la misma está por encima de la política cuando permite que el sufragio sea realizado con conocimiento de un cambio de civilización emergente, que está  sintetizado de la siguiente manera:
Votante: tu futuro depende de mercados globales que  te permitan gozar de experiencias personalizadas de alta calidad al menor costo. Estando abierta a mejoras por medio de la escalabilidad del aprendizaje comunitario, esta es una gran síntesis que integra prácticamente todo lo que se ha desarrollado orgánicamente hasta el momento en el blog Grupo Millennium Hispaniola y que han venido distribuyendo en Twitter en los últimos dos años valiosos ciudadanos globales. Los gobernantes que elijas para los poderes ejecutivo y legislativo necesitan garantizar una relación Estado mercado reequilibrada que sustente dicho futuro. El presente vacío de liderazgo global es una gran oportunidad para que cada nación elija sus mejores candidatos para además de seguir siendo un Estado independiente se pueda simultáneamente volver interdependiente para poder participar de forma eficaz en la creación de un nuevo orden que no es nacional, sino principalmente global. Como sucedió con la agricultura, el futuro está cada vez menos en la fábrica y sus empleos, ni por el momento en la educación que garantizaba dichos empleos en la civilización industrial. Estamos en la transición de un cambio de civilización donde los conocimientos acumulados se están deteriorando rápidamente y donde nuevos conocimientos están emergiendo. Durante esta larga transición no es tiempo de acudir a la escalabilidad de la eficiencia, sino a la escalabilidad del aprendizaje. Esperamos que la escalabilidad de la eficiencia venga después de consolidar el nuevo orden. Un primer ejemplo de esa transición corresponde a la energía, que necesitamos se refuerce mutuamente con la información y el transporte para dar un salto económico, cultural, social y político que suba la marea a un nivel muy superior al actual. Dicho ejemplo está en una ley sistémica de electricidad, que servirá como marco de referencia de las mencionadas experiencias personalizadas.

 Votante: exige en tu país un gobierno basado en una teoría de negocio ajustada a la realidad. 

 Ayer Michel Temer hizo una promesa para recuperar la credibilidad de Brasil. En el Reino Unido hicieron una cumbre anticorrupción en medio de un vacío de liderazgo global. En España están haciendo un segundo intento de elecciones sin seguridad de que van a poder formar gobierno. En Estados Unidos Donald Trump es sorpresivamente el virtual candidato del Partido Republicano. En República Dominicana hay un intento de una parte del sector eléctrico que trata de adueñarse de US$600 MM de los fondos de pensión. 




 Sobre este último país, avanzamos en Twitter un llamado urgente a votantes: oponerse a fondos de pensiones para el sector eléctrico por US$600 MM. Agregamos aquí que esa acción destruye la fuente principal de financiamiento local del marco de referencia global que resulta de una Ley Sistémica de Electricidad [1]. Lo que pasa, por ejemplo, en Brasil, Reino Unido, España, Estados Unidos y también en República Dominicana se debe a que la teoría de negocio de los Estados que está muy alejada de la realidad. Abajo veremos otras pinceladas sobre esos otros países. 
De acuerdo al finado Peter Drucker, en su artículo “The Theory of Business (La teoría de los negocios), “La causa primordial de casi todas estas crisis no es que las cosas se hagan mal, ni siquiera que se hagan las cosas equivocadas.  De hecho en la mayoría de los casos, se están haciendo las cosas acertadas, pero sin que den fruto. ¿Cómo se explica esta aparentemente paradoja? Los supuestos sobre lo que se ha construido y gobierna la organización ya no lo encajan en la realidad. 

 Drucker dijo que: “Una teoría de negocios tiene tres partes. 1. Hay supuestos sobre el ENTORNO de la organización: la sociedad y su estructura, el mercado, el cliente y la tecnología 2. Hay supuestos sobre la MISIÓN específica de la organización 3. Hay supuestos sobres las COMPETENCIAS NUCLEARES necesarias para llevar a término la misión de la organización.” Él se preguntó y se respondió: “¿Cuáles son las especificaciones de una teoría de los negocios válida? Son cuatro.” 

 1. Las suposiciones acerca de la situación, la misión y las competencias clave deben coincidir con la realidad. 
Cuando cuatro jóvenes de Manchester, Inglaterra, Simon Marks y sus tres cuñados, sin un centavo, decidieron a comienzos de los años veinte que un bazar común podría convertirse en un agente de cambio social, la Primera Guerra Mundial había sacudido profundamente la estructura social de su nación. También había creado masa de nuevos compradores de mercaderías de buena calidad, elegantes pero baratas, como lencería, blusas y medias –las primeras categorías de productos exitosos de Marks & Spencer. Luego la firma se ocupó sistemáticamente de desarrollar una serie de competencias clave  –nuevas e inéditas. Hasta entonces, la competencia clave de un comerciante era la habilidad para comprar bien. Marks & Spencer determinó que era el comerciante, más que el fabricante, el que conocía al consumidor. Por lo tanto, el comerciante, y no el fabricante, debería diseñar los productos, desarrollarlos y encontrar productores que fabricaran los bienes según su diseño, especificaciones y costes. Esta nueva definición del comerciante requirió cinco a ocho años para desarrollarse y llegar a ser aceptable para los proveedores tradicionales, que siempre se habían considerados a sí mismos como “fabricantes”, no “subcontratista”. 
2. Las suposiciones en las tres áreas deben concordar entre sí. 
Ésta fue quizá la mayor ventaja de GM en las largas décadas de su predominio. Sus suposiciones acerca del mercado y del proceso óptimo de fabricación estaban en perfecta armonía.  A mediados de la década de los veinte, GM decidió que también necesitaba nuevas competencias clave todavía inédita: un control financiero de los procesos de fabricación y una teoría de las asignaciones de capital. Como resultado, creó un nuevo manejo contable de los costes y el primer proceso racional de asignación de capital. 
3. La teoría de los negocios debe  ser conocida y comprendida en toda la organización.
Esto es fácil en los primeros tiempos de una organización. Pero cuando ésta llega a ser exitosa, su teoría suele darse cada vez más por sentada, llegando a ser cada vez menos consciente de ello. Después la organización se torna negligente. Empieza a reducir gastos. Comienza a buscar lo que es ventajoso en lugar de lo que es correcto. Deja de pensar. Deja de indagar. Recuerda las respuestas pero ha olvidado las preguntas. La teoría  de los negocios llega a ser la “cultura”. Pero la cultura no es substituto de la disciplina, y la teoría de los negocios es una disciplina.
4. La teoría de los negocios tiene que ser puesta a prueba constantemente. 
No está grabada en planchas de piedra. Es una hipótesis. Y es una hipótesis acerca de las cosas que están en flujo constante –la sociedad, los mercados, los consumidores, la tecnología. Y por eso la capacidad para cambiar debe estar implícita en la teoría de los negocios.
Basados en la primera y la cuarta especificaciones sabemos que el desorden actual por falta de disciplina en que se encuentran muchos países del mundo y el mundo mismo se debe a que su teoría de negocio está muy alejada de la realidad imperante, por ejemplo, siguen actuando equivocadamente como si fuesen países independientes en un entorno cada vez más interdependiente, siguen modelos de equilibrio y planes con decisiones a largo plazo suponiendo que son sistemas cerrados regulados administrados por comisiones de competencia de parte de los gobiernos cuando existen desde hace décadas todas las condiciones para sistemas abiertos desregulados por el mercado sistémicos que impulsan la competencia, innovación y el potencial de co-creación que tienen los ciudadanos para obtener una experiencia individual de alta calidad a bajo costo [Ninth update of 2]. 

 Lo que se supone son sistemas cerrados se han vuelto anti-sistemas (el todo es menor que la suma de las partes) que corresponden a mercados mediocres dominados por el capitalismo de amiguetes global que impulsa la corrupción anti-sistémica internacional. En el caso de Brasil, las declaraciones del presidente interino es acudir a esos mercados mediocres, en los que privatizar es un gran error, cuando lo que conviene es desregular sin privatizar [3 ]. La corrupción es un síntoma de un problema mayor que vimos se debe a un Estado mucho más grande la cuenta [First updade of 4 ]. En el caso de la cumbre celebrada en el Reino Unido bajo un vacío de liderazgo global [First update of 5], si tal corrupción anti-sistémica internacional es detenida llevando a Estados minimalistas que impulsan la democracia directa de los mercados sistémicos, la fuente de la corrupción anti-sistémica nacional desaparece [6].

 España es el país al que le conviene un cambio de su teoría de negocio para servir de ejemplo constitucional [Second update of 4]. En Estados Unidos tienen un desorden que podemos ver a partir de la noticia “Cómo Donald Trup ha cambiado el mundo,” publicada por el Financial Times, bajo la firma de Gideon Rachman. Es evidente que no es Trump ni Le Pen los que han cambiado el mundo, sino que ha sido la realidad la que ha cambiado sin que los gobiernos, ni los partidos ni los votantes se hayan percatado de ello. 

Cinco ideas que destacó Rachman para Trump bajo la teoría de negocio que no se ajusta a la realidad en el Partido democrata y la del Estado minimalista que le debe servir a todos los países

Primera aproximación de la comparación de dos Teoría de Negocio
No se ajusta a la realidad con Estados excesivos que por ser inconsistente confunde a los partidos, a candidatos y a votantes. El futuro, si es que hay, se queda bajo la primacía de los intereses de las partes. 
Se ajusta a la realidad con un Estado minimalista que impulsa la democracia directa del mercado sistémico. El futuro se basa en la primacía del todo. 
Rechazo a la globalización y al libre comercio injusto dominado por el capitalismo de amiguetes. Una parte de los votantes gana y otra pierde. Es lo que ha llevado a la creciente desigualdad rumbo a la segunda Edad media.
Apoyo a la globalización con libre comercio justo bajo el capitalismo sobresaliente. Los votantes pueden esperar una experiencia personalizada. Es así como se llega a la Edad Dorada de la presente revolución tecnológica.
Nacionalismo (independentismo) de países independientes de la civilización industrial. Vacío de liderazgo global.
Interdependentismo. Países interdependientes de la civlización sistémica. Cada país interdependiente elige candidatos con liderazgo nacional y global.
Choque de viejas civilizaciones. La Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC) ha perdido espacio con los acuerdos bilaterales y Acuerdos de Libre Comercio exclusivos.
Llegada de una nueva civilización. Hace falta elevar la OMC a la Organización Global de Negocios y Comercio. Tema de las migraciones es asunto a tratar. La Unión Europea podría dar el ejemplo del marco de referencia de una unión de países si los Estados Unidos no lo hacen [ ]
Agresión a la élite. El poder se basa en la violencia legislativa impulsada por el dinero.
El poder se basa principalmente en la sabiduría.
Medios de comunicación no fiables que sirven para mantener el pensamiento de grupo del capitalismo de amiguetes
Líderazgo personal sirve para cambiar marcos de referencia por décadas, que sirven para cambiar patrones de comportamiento, que sirven para apoyar la acción directa.

Referencias seleccionadas del trasfondo de este Blog Grupo Millennium Hispaniola:

[1] ¡Respaldemos cambio de marco de referencia #globaldebout #DD_SM YA!
[2] Can we agree with the Second Curve, while not with Handy?
[3] Conclusive evidence: transformative deregulation is the key to electric service innovation


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sábado, abril 30, 2016

Utilities Full Speed Ahead on IUE/SG: The Question is What to do First

Warren B. Causey | Apr 07, 2008

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The next 10 to 15 years will see major changes - perhaps even classified as upheavals by future historians - in the distribution of electricity to businesses and households throughout the United States. The exact nature of these changes and their long-term effect upon the economic well-being and security of the country are difficult to predict. But a consensus already exists among those working within the industry, politicians and regulators, economists, environmentalists and, increasingly, among the general public, that fundamental changes are inevitable.
The existing paradigm of nationwide grid interconnection – brought about primarily by the deregulation movement of the late 1990s – emphasizes the generation of electricity at large plants in various parts of the country and then distribution effectively nationwide. There are two reasons why this paradigm is failing. First, the transmission/distribution system was not designed as a nationwide grid; it is aged and is marginally stable. Second, political/regulatory/social movements are making the construction of large generating plants increasingly difficult, expensive, and eventually infeasible.
The previous, historic paradigm made each utility primarily responsible for generation, transmission and distribution in its own service territory; this had the benefit of localizing disturbances and fragmenting responsibility and expense. With loose interconnections to other states and regions, a disturbance in one area, or a lack of resources in a different one, had considerably less effect on other parts of the country, or even other parts of service territories.
For better or worse, we now have a nationwide interconnected grid, albeit one that was not originally designed for the purpose, and which it serves inadequately. It could be improved, but the expense would be massive and probably cost prohibitive. Knowledgeable industry insiders calculate that it would cost more than the current market value of all U.S. utilities combined to provide the upgrades necessary for the modernization of the nationwide grid and replacing its large generating facilities over the next 30 years. Obviously, the paradigm is going to have to change.
The reasons these changes are going to continue to accelerate and that various tipping points have been reached are fairly easy to see. They include:
  • The U.S. faces a serious supply/demand disconnect by 2018. Unless something dramatic happens, there will not be nearly enough electricity to go around. Already some parts of the country are feeling the pinch. Regulatory and legislative uncertainty (especially around global warming and environmental issues) makes it very difficult for utilities to know what to do. Building new generation of any type except “green energy” is very difficult and green energy cannot close the growing gap between supply and demand being projected by NERC (the North American Electric Reliability Corp.).
  • Fuel prices continue to escalate and reliability continues to decline. Increasing restrictions are being placed on fuel selection, especially coal. Fifty percent of all coal fired generating plants proposed since 2000 already have been canceled, according to Wood McKenzie, Annapolis, MD, (Gas and Power Service Insight, North America, February, 2008).
  • A whole generation of utility workers is nearing retirement and finding adequate replacements in the smaller, younger generations is proving increasingly difficult.
  • The entire U.S. transmission/distribution system is aging and becoming less stable. Because of virulent environmental and NIMBY (not in my back yard) resistance it is very difficult to site new transmission that will be needed to deal with supply/demand issues.
    While the problems are clear-cut, the solutions are not yet set in place. At best, smart grids and smarter consumers are only portions of the answers. They will help reduce demand, but probably not enough to make up the projected generation shortfall. And the development of these two concepts still is evolving. While most utility executives see the problems, they continue to be fairly uncertain about the solutions and have considerable distance to go to have them in place, as seen in the Sierra Energy Group survey conducted reporting January and February.
    According to that survey, more than 90% of utility executives now feel the Intelligent Utility Enterprise and Smart Grid (IUE/SG) are an inevitable part of their future. This finding was true of all utility types supplying electricity. While utility executives understand the problem and the IUE/SG approach to solving part of it, they are somewhat behind in planning on exactly how to get the pieces in place. That “planning lag” for the vision is shown in the following graphs:
    Part of the planning lag can be attributed to forces outside the utilities themselves. While politicians and regulators have been emphasizing conservation and demand response, guidelines for how this will work have been lacking. While a number of states have established mandatory green power percentages -- most of which cannot reasonably be met with existing technology, according to most experts -- Congress failed to do so in an Energy Policy Act (EPACT) adopted in December. And, while the EPACT of 2005 “urged” regulators to “urge” utilities to install smart meters, it was not required and regulators have moved at different speeds in different areas on this “urging.”
    Getting from where utilities were (and in many respects still are) in the last century, to where they need to go by 2018 isn’t a problem to be solved overnight. Utilities traditionally have evolved slowly. Executives know there is a need for the technological evolution to accelerate rapidly, but, as mentioned earlier, there still are a lot of questions about what you do first. Do you install AMI as rapidly as possible? Do you emphasize automating the grid and adding artificial intelligence? Do you continue to build out mobile systems to push data (and more detailed instructions) to field crews who soon will be younger and less-experienced? Do you rush into home automation? Do you build windmills, solar farms? There just isn’t enough money to go around, at least not at electricity rates that won’t bankrupt the nation and most citizens.
    A “Smart Grid” implies that it will become increasingly self-operating and self-healing. The technology for a lot of that already has been developed, though not widely deployed. Utilities have been working on basic distribution automation (DA) -- being able to operate the grid remotely -- for a number of years.
    Several Steps
    Several steps are involved in getting from the current state to the IUE/SG. These include pushing information all the way from the individual meter to the executive suite -- or wherever vital business decisions can be made. We asked utility executives how they’re doing in this area, with the following results:
    Once the information is available, utility executives will need business intelligence systems to help analyze and support those decisions. In this year’s survey, we took a benchmark of how well they believe they are doing. Those results are show in this chart:
    The final area the IUE/SG concept is expected to envelop is at the residential level. Residential home automation will enable utilities to control usage directly -- through adjusting thermostats or compressor cycling, or other techniques. Again, the technology for this is well advanced, but there are very few installations nationwide. A number of experiments were conducted with home automation in the early- to mid-1990s. Some homes were automated and even some subdivisions were built under the mantra of “Demand-side Management.”
    “Demand Response,” the current term used by politicians is considered more “politically correct,” though the net result will be the same. Home automation will enable regulators, through utilities, to “ration” usage at need. They don’t use the term, but if Global Warming concerns continue to seriously impact the ability of utilities to access adequate generation, that is going to be the effect.
    In the distant future, as technology continues to advance, electric generation in the U.S. likely will include a mix of energy sources, many of them distributed and green. However, in the next 10 years -- the window of most concern to NERC on the generation/reliability side -- there is no way green energy will be ready in sufficient quantities to forestall a significant shortfall within that period. Right now, green energy supplies less than 3% of U.S. demand, nuclear about 20% and coal 50%. The rest comes from hydroelectric dams. Nuclear is the only viable option that is possible, but sufficient nuclear energy likely will not be built in time because of on-going environmentalist and other opposition.
    The NERC Reliability report of Oct. 15 points strongly toward a significant shortfall of electricity about 10 years out that could lead to rolling blackouts and brownouts in parts of the country that have not experienced them before, plus mandatory "demand response" at the residential level, which -- to call a spade a spade -- is rationing.
    So what are utilities to do? They are going to have to get much smarter (IUE/SG) and they are going to have to prepare for rationing (AMI/Demand Response). As seen in this study, they still have quite a way to go in these areas, but this at least is something that can be -- in large part -- in place within 10 to 15 years. The technology for IUE/SG already exists, it is relatively inexpensive (in comparison with green energy and building nuclear plants) and it is something the utilities can do with relatively little regulatory oversight. In fact, regulators are encouraging it.
    The future seems to be getting clearer, just scarier. IUE/SG is a major bridge to getting there. And, even if the apocalyptic scenarios fail to develop -- Global Warming is debunked, or new generation sources develop much more rapidly than expected -- being an intelligent utility with a smart grid probably is a very good idea anyway. Utilities are working on it, and at an accelerated rate, as shown in this study.
    Meanwhile, many vendors, especially on the T&D side, still are delivering individual pieces of the puzzle -- they’ve worked within those utility silos for long, they sometimes have difficulty seeing the big picture. But utilities see it and they’re going to be increasingly looking to vendors to fill gaps in the technology to make the IUE/SG effective in dealing with the impending problems.
    • Related Topics

    Comments

    Mon, 03/31/2008 - 7:34am
    {QUOTE} mandatory "demand response" at the residential level, which -- to call a spade a spade -- is rationing. {/QUOTE}

    You make it sound so scary. Tell us, why should a residential customer prefer A) a system where consumption peaks exceed consumption averages by 150% resulting in heavy usage of expensive and inefficient short-run peaking plants, as say current California, over B) a system where the customer gets paid by the utility an amount equivalent to the difference in cost between B1) generating with simple-cycle gas turbines which operate only a few hours per month and B2) generating with continuously running high-efficiency baseload units?

    Ease of implementation will depend entirely on the approach taken and the level of equitable sharing of the financial rewards. If a large part of the rewards are to be confiscated by the utility, or re-distributed to free-loader customers who contribute nothing to the solution, then, perhaps there might be a lot of opposition.

    Fri, 04/04/2008 - 9:40am
    https://www.euci.com/conferences/0608-dree/

    Check out this link on demand response and energy efficiency. I'm curious if you think the main topics are covered in this one.

    Mon, 04/07/2008 - 7:39am
    Len, Warren's article does sound scary because it is. Over time North America will lose its cheap reliable supply without clever and fair ways to pay for new generation sources.

    I think the main point of this article is utility companies tending to divorce themselves from the growing need for generation sources, and focusing instead much more on T&D automation and customer rationing with DR and EE. I can understand their apprehension to dealing with generation if efforts for any new generation sources are being blocked at every political turn, for whatever reasons. Their natural response is to batten down their hatches and make T&D as reliable as possible, and prepare for DR rationing and EE if / when generation falls short in future.

    Your comment about innovative simple-cycle gas turbines along with marketing reforms that incent consumers (alluding to your IMEUC market proposal) is precisely what SHOULD be talked about.

    A big problem is our utility companies are accustomed to uniform billing for every customer. Adopting market reforms and handling lots of distributed generation sources would necessarily require them to provide targeted billing and services to consumers like we already see in Cable-TV and telephone companies. There is hope they will be forced into this mode of operation if they adopt widespread DR programs with consumers, since by its nature it will get deployed in a targeted manner i.e. not all consumers will have the same DR technology, and there will be big differences between utility-controlled versus consumer-controlled in-home technology as to how they work and are paid for.

    Heath, the design of DR and EE programs as in your conference's discussion topics might also consider generation side planning and how energy markets might handle them. DR and EE cannot efficiently be planned in isolation of it, nor in isolation of engaging the consumer side much more with targeted billing and consumer incentives.

    Thu, 04/10/2008 - 12:51pm
    Bob - that is a very strong point on incorporating generation side planning. On the note about simple-cycle gas turbines... how does this effect utilities in the short/long term? I guess I am not as familiar on how this would all play out.

    Wed, 04/16/2008 - 8:29am
    Bob: "utility companies tending to divorce themselves from the growing need for generation sources, and focusing instead much more on T&D automation and customer rationing with DR and EE. " -- You're right. Agreed this is where the current fashion in regulator activity is forcing the utilities, but it's clearly the wrong direction. Our regulators should be incenting the most knowledgeable local (non-imported) energy producers we have, the electrical utilities, to cut back on their production, but to increase it (in the cleanest ways possible). Society should be using the electricity then to substitute for scarce Natural Gas (ground-source heat pumps) and for imported transport fuel (PHEV vehicles, electric rail, etc.). -- Confusing the electric utilities with nonsense about "efficiency" and "demand reduction" is a dumb move which only dissapates their corporate energy / creativity. -- Those activities belong in the customer's area, not the utilities. The regulators are shirking their responsibilities by shoving them off on the utilities.

    Wed, 04/16/2008 - 8:30am
    (above should read) "the electrical utilities, NOT to cut back on their production, but to increase it"

    Wed, 04/16/2008 - 8:57am
    I hate to keep saying it, but my IMEUC proposal is designed to fix such confused incentive issues. By separating distribution into a regulated monopoly from the competitive free-market generation entities, it provides regulators with all the tools needed to do customer incentive programs for efficiency and DR through the distribution monopoly, while allowing the necessary incentive to profit from increased sales to enable the generatoin experts to move agressively toward substituting electricity for scarce, costly and insecure imported fossil fuels.

    The critical issue is the "incentive vectors" which a company percieves. Trying to make an investor-owned entity both an efficient energy producer AND a conduit for convincing customers to reduce consumption is simply dumb, or some less polite adjective.

    Wed, 04/16/2008 - 3:30pm
    I advise readers to take a close look at the EWPC article IMEUC False Facts, which now includes 18 IMEUC False Facts. I guess now the readers can make their own homework to see if it classifies as IMEUC False Fact #19.

    I hate to keep saying it, but my IMEUC proposal is designed to fix such confused incentive issues. By separating distribution into a regulated monopoly from the competitive free-market generation entities, it provides regulators with all the tools needed to do customer incentive programs for efficiency and DR through the distribution monopoly, while allowing the necessary incentive to profit from increased sales to enable the generatoin experts to move agressively toward substituting electricity for scarce, costly and insecure imported fossil fuels.


    Hint: "... it provides regulators with ALL the tools needed to do customer incentive programs for efficiency and DR through the distribution monopoly."

    Wed, 04/16/2008 - 3:31pm
    Dear Warren,

    You have written another timely article about extending the life of the obsolete power utilities business model of winning rate cases to the regulator. In response to it, I have written the article Leadership Answers What to do First, concentrating on the need to avoid costly and risky high technology investments, many of which will fail with a high probability, ending up unnecessarilly in the customer's rate based. Those high tech projects should compete as business models in the open market, under the EWPC market architecture and design paradigm.

    The summary of the EWPC article goes as follows: "The answer to the question of what to do first is for the global power industry to get out of the wrong jungle to produce a EWPC based EPAct as soon as possible. That is the kind of leadership needed to face the inevitable fundamental changes required to significantly reduce today’s legislative and regulatory uncertainty."

    Best regards,

    José Antonio

    Wed, 04/16/2008 - 3:33pm
    Please change "rate based" to "rate base."

    Thu, 04/17/2008 - 8:04am
    Jose Antonio: I simply cannot see why you keep criticising IMEUC incorrectly. Is it that you actually think your already failed EWPC (see Ontario,Canada or Texas etc. -- greatly increased prices, requires government mandate legislation to get even minor customer-oriented improvements past the recalcitrant retailers) has any viability?

    Thu, 04/17/2008 - 9:04am
    IMEUC False Fact #22 "I simply cannot see why you keep criticising IMEUC incorrectly." See FF #16 for "already failed EWPC. IMEUC FF link is a few posts above.

    Thu, 04/17/2008 - 10:51am
    Jose Antonio,

    In attempting to explain your EWPC proposals on this website, you are claiming system reliability has two sides. System crashes can be mitigated by a least cost mix of supply and demand risk management tools applied in time and space, which becomes your 'Ultraquality Transportation" requirement. This begs the questions WHO would be using these risk management tools and WHAT exactly are these tools? It is a well know fact of engineering that to make anything become ultraquality comes at a cost, and if the mix of tools your refer to need to be developed yet, then WHO will bear their development and commercialization costs.

    You also state that using DR to achieve segmentation of customers would provide supply security, which becomes your Retail Competition. This begs the questions WHO would bear the cost to develop DR technologies, and WHO will control DR, consumers or the industry players? Among other concerns, there will be massive public opposition if industry players are allowed to control DR.

    From what I can tell, Len's IMEUC proposal is the only proposal that provides the economic incentives to industry to bear these development costs to achieve all the above, while giving consumers full control over DR and enjoy competitive retailing.

    Thu, 04/17/2008 - 11:25am
    "a well known fact of engineering"

    Thu, 04/17/2008 - 3:12pm
    Bob,

    The vertically integrated utilities paradigm developed those risk management tools for the supply side to operate at ultraquality. The transportation only utility will arrange to update them, to include the demand side. They will use them, with inputs from generators and retailers. Yes they come at a cost that like all software development purchase by utilities, in this case transportation only utility.

    The obvious first means of segmentation is the wide range of customers' reliability requirements. 2GRs will invest to develop that and other market segments in the second phase of company vs. company competition. Some customers will agree to DR (contractual agreement to respond) others to DD (contractual agreement to interrupt) and others might be just price takers, etc.

    No opposition will develop if customers have choice of 2GR and choice of service plans that satisfy their needs. Opposition will certainly develop if customers have no market choice, like having to purchase an IMEUC, one size fits all system that many don't need. The California PCT example is a precedent of such opposition developed under public pressure.

    False Fact #24: "IMEUC proposal is the only proposal that provides the economic incentives to industry to bear these development costs to achieve all the above, while giving consumers full control over DR and enjoy competitive retailing."

    Go ahead "enjoy competitive retailing" and read carefully the other 23 IMEUC False Facts - the link is above. If you are in a hurry, don't forget to check the EWPC article behing FF#18.

    Thu, 04/17/2008 - 8:42pm
    Jose Antonio,

    False Fact #1: "The obvious first means of segmentation is the wide range of customers' reliability requirements. 2GRs will invest to develop that and other market segments in the second phase of company vs. company competition."

    2GR's will never be able to develop market segmentation based on various customer reliability requirements because any given customer will have dynamic reliability needs - some uses of energy in a home for example may be need reliable service while others at other times may not. 2GRs would have to be able to dynamicly change their service reliability for any given customer on demand from the customer. IMEUC specifically offers to do just this however.

    Furthermore demand response technology for consumers must be developed and commercialized for it to work with and be part of DR or DD contracts. Its development hinges on the intimate involvement of players in the electricity industry, particularly the owners of the smart meters to bridge the communication between in-home DR technology and the electricity system. Expecting 2GRs or any other company to do this development is wishful thinking because no one is going to bear the huge cost to replace smart meters already deployed in the field to upgrade them for handling new capabilities. IMEUC puts smart meter ownership into the hands of the consumer where the consumer controls upgrading it or changing its functionality over and above basic metering. EWPC does not allow for this.

    Fri, 04/18/2008 - 10:39am
    Bob,

    Before responding your post, first I like to characterize your interventions as ineffective first level mode of communication, as explained in the highly recommended article EWPC’s Tipping Point. I believe we can go to the third level.

    Second, what you though was religious stuff earlier on EWPC, is now stuff that is better explained in the most read GMH post Many Market Matters to Change the Status Quo, where I repeated what Jim Beyer wrote to Len several months ago: “I think people concerned with replacing the status quo would be concerned about many other matters as well [like those that Bob calls “Len's IMEUC market reforms,” which are totally absent].” To grasp the whole discussion, I humbly recommend that we change to the 3rd level mode of communication and align our efforts to change the status quo.

    That said, I suggest that you need to shift your deterministic paradigm to a probabilistic one, like that of the insurance industry. Reliability is a probabilistic concept based on long term performance. Hence IMEUC False Fact #25: "2GR's will never be able to develop market segmentation based on various customer reliability requirements."

    I know that marketing to 100 percent of customers (which have widely different perceptions) will not work with the message: "IMEUC puts smart meter ownership into the hands of the consumer where the consumer controls upgrading it or changing its functionality over and above basic metering."

    EWPC is not a physical solution: it is a breakthrough market architecture and design paradigm that allows all business models to compete for customers' market share.

    Fri, 04/18/2008 - 10:57am
    Jose Antonio: Isn't it generally frowned upon in academic circles to insert your own words to another persons when you are quoting them, particularly inside the quote marks? eg. from above, the words in brackets are not mine.

    (QUOTE) I think people concerned with replacing the status quo would be concerned about many other matters as well [like those that Bob calls “Len's IMEUC market reforms,” which are totally absent].” (/QUOTE)

    Fri, 04/18/2008 - 1:05pm
    Thank you Len for the advise.

    I want and I will rephrase and enhance the message while at it. All bracketed expressions above are mine. They were meant to pinpoint my opinion while quoting, which may lead to unintended and clearly unnecessary confusion, especially with Jim's "I think."

    Please change the message to the following paragraph:

    "I think people concerned with replacing the status quo would be concerned about many other matters as well.” I add, that the many other matters quoted are those that Bob calls “Len's IMEUC market reforms,” which are absent to a great extent in Len and Bob's opionions of IMEUC, which they may change.

    As you can see, I prefer to use "opinions" instead of Len's IMEUC or Bob's IMEUC, but I was first quoting Bob.

    Fri, 04/18/2008 - 1:13pm
    I still don't get it. "absent to a great extent" ?? What is "absent" from my market reform proposal documents which is contained in your EWPC documents?

    Fri, 04/18/2008 - 2:42pm
    What Jim asked is for "people concerned with replacing the status quo would be concerned about many other matters as well," are market matters absent from the IMEUC proposal.

    But, as time has already made EWPC the wining paradigm, as IMEUC doesn't even qualify, as a robust, technology neutral, and wide open (to any future business models) market architecture and design paradigm, you need not worry nor keep fighting anymore.

    If you and Bob don't respond to the utilities status quo and would like to change it, I strongly recommend that both of you should concentrate on shifting from a win-lose level 1 communications mode to a level 3 win-win mode by helping push for the new EPAct. Now is time for real entrepreneurs to support a leadership move to expect a new EWPC EPAct that removes the legislative and regulatory uncertainty that will kick off company vs. company competition.

    Once the public opinion is on the move, you and Bob may start to redesign the IMEUC system for a market segment on the EWPC market architecture and design paradigm to try to get a piece of the global competitive market.

    Sat, 04/19/2008 - 8:18am
    Jose Antonio,

    We already have Transportation only utility companies in Ontario. There is no ultraquality requirement and there are regulated price controls, so it is not your EWPC as such. But even if the regulated price controls were lifted, the fact remains the residential billing meters are owned by the utilities, and they have zero economic incentive to add more DR or DD functionality to them, even if the government demanded they must adopt an "ultraquality" transportation system, unless the utilities passed on the costs to all rate payers.

    The meters are crucial here because they are a direct measure of instantaneous demand and past energy consumption, and the two-way AMI smart meters provide a direct communication link into the electricity grid. They legally belong to the utility companies, and no visionary preaching by you about EWPC will be able to change this. Your refusal to acknowledge the central importance of AMI smart meters is also a clear indication of your lack of understanding of the technical AND economic issues.

    Len's IMEUC proposals specifically require customer-owned smart meters, and it would give consumers the freedom to upgrade them with new functionality of their own free choice. Without similar proposals for the meters by you, EWPC is nothing more than a scam perpetrated by you, with the only possible intention to block revolutionary changes in the industry. Is it perhaps there are vested interests in the industry who want to block changes paying you to do this Jose? I don't expect you to admit to this, but it wouldn't surprise me one bit.

    Keep on dreaming Jose.

    Sat, 04/19/2008 - 7:39pm
    As Len wrote on 11.16.07 that “The separation of distribution from generation, transmission and (retail if used) into a regulated monopoly on geographic boundaries should be considered an absolute requirement for competitive electrical systems. Otherwise the liklihood of the distribution owner making mischief for his competitor generators or retailers is just too much, and too difficult to monitor. I think your fears of problems are far over-emphasized. Here in Ontario we did it with no complaining at all anywhere (at least on that score) The province now has about 90 separate regulated distribution companies mostly private, some rural co-op. There is also now a fair bit of consolidation going on among them, which makes sense,” we have False Fact #26: “We already have Transportation only utility companies in Ontario.”
    You write that “There is no ultraquality requirement and there are regulated price controls, so it is not your EWPC as such.” The EWPC market architecture and design has a tightly integrated T&D transportation utility. Those new transportation only utilities can be though to arise from a restructuring of the old vertically integrated utilities (vintage 1970), that had a responsibility to serve, into one with a responsibility to transport under regulated price controls. Wholesale and retail sales go to a completely open market without price controls for the customers, which have demand response (in a wide sense, including DR, DD and EE) as a condition of service. False Fact #27: EWPC has transportation without price controls.
    You write that “But even if the regulated price controls were lifted, the fact remains the residential billing meters are owned by the utilities, and they have zero economic incentive to add more DR or DD functionality to them, even if the government demanded they must adopt an "ultraquality" transportation system, unless the utilities passed on the costs to all rate payers.” As regulated price controls need not be lifted for distribution (as part of transportation), the integrated T&D transportation utility will receive tolls (controlled prices) as part of their regulated compact. However, one very most important fact is that under EWPC there are no incumbent retailers, as structural separation is forbidden.

    It doesn’t make any sense at all for the utility to keep their meters and customers to take the risk to buy duplicate smart meters (many of them don’t need IMEUC as they invest in DD and EE instead under a 2GR contract) than can become obsolete in a few years or result in early system failure. Standards interfaces will resolve all hardware and software difficulties mentioned. Legal problems will be resolved by legislative and regulatory decisions. False Fact #28: “Your refusal to acknowledge the central importance of AMI smart meters is also a clear indication of your lack of understanding of the technical AND economic issues.”
    In response to my suggestion “If you and Bob don't respond to the utilities status quo and would like to change it, I strongly recommend that both of you should concentrate on shifting from a win-lose level 1 communications mode to a level 3 win-win mode by helping push for the new EPAct. Now is time for real entrepreneurs to support a leadership move to expect a new EWPC EPAct that removes the legislative and regulatory uncertainty that will kick off company vs. company competition,” I received False Fact #29: “Without similar proposals for the meters by you, EWPC is nothing more than a scam perpetrated by you, with the only possible intention to block revolutionary changes in the industry. Is it perhaps there are vested interests in the industry who want to block changes paying you to do this Jose? I don't expect you to admit to this, but it wouldn't surprise me one bit.” Don’t forget to read very carefully the EWPC article Leadership Answers What to do First.

    Keep on dreaming Jose. Thank you. Please read the EWPC article I Have a Dream Too.

    Mon, 04/21/2008 - 6:34am
    Jose Antonio: If stubborn determination alone could make arguments correct,.....

    Mon, 04/21/2008 - 2:26pm
    Related to IMEUC False Facts, readers are advised to read the GMH post A Decent Response to Jim Bayer.

    Tue, 04/22/2008 - 7:58am
    Jose Antonio,

    You say that it doesn't make sense for utility companies to keep their meters, and the legal issues with ownership of utility meters will be resolved by legislative and regulatory decisions. This can only mean massive government intervention will take the ownership of the meters away from utility companies, and allow emerging 2GRs under your EWPC proposal to provide them to consumers with contracts that adopt DR and EE.

    I have news for you Jose. Many large utility companies in North America are currently entertaining or have in some cases accepted proposals for AMI smart meters already. The new meters and their supporting AMI systems will soon be deployed without any standards for interfaces in place yet. There is indeed a very big risk of system obsolescence and system failures because the current meters will not satisfy future needs of DR, DD, and EE, and smart grids.

    It’s reasonable to assume AMI systems and their smart meters will over time require replacement and / or future upgrades to handle emerging DR, DD, and EE, and smart grid requirements.

    Let's say your predictions come true and governments force utility companies to give up ownership of the meters. As a consumer, suppose I had a choice whether to pay a 2GR under contract to get my upgraded meter as in your EWPC, or pay for one and own it myself under IMEUC. Under EWPC a 2GR is effectively a middleman that will profit from selling (or renting) me new AMI smart meter capabilities under a retailing contract. Under IMEUC I would buy and own a new meter myself at any time I choose to buy one.

    It's clear to me that buying and owning meters myself under IMEUC will in the long run cost me less than EWPC’s middlemen 2GRs selling or leasing them to handle emerging requirements.

    Tue, 04/22/2008 - 3:03pm
    IMEUC False Fact #22 "I simply cannot see why you keep criticising IMEUC incorrectly."

    Bob,

    Thank you for suspending False Fact #23: "EWPC is made obsolete by the utility tech revolution," when you wrote "Let's say your predictions come true and governments force utility companies to give up ownership of the meters."

    I suggest that meters should be standard commodity items that will replace today’s meters. One meter gets installed and changes should not involve replacing the meter later on for quite some time. So, in the interim, all meters installed by "many large utility companies in North America [that] are currently entertaining or have in some cases accepted proposals for AMI smart meters already," will generate a waste of resources because of the uncertainty and the costly risks of obsolescence and systems failure. Those risks and system failures will go into the base rates of the states and provinces where regulators make those silly mistakes.

    With the introduction of a new EWPC EPAct, as described in the articleLeadership Answers What to do First, the legislative and regulatory issues resolution is the key to reduce the great uncertainty in the power industry and the costs of the above risks and failures.

    EWPC is an open market architecture and design paradigm that gives costumers choice of middleman. Your statement (suspending for the moment False Fact #8. The utility enterprise and the utility grid separation will never "get ever implemented politically" and False Fact #5. 2GRs are not needed. ) “… suppose I had a choice whether to pay a 2GR under contract to get my upgraded meter as in your EWPC, or pay for one and own it myself under IMEUC,” is not a proper statement regarding EWPC. 2GRs (or any middlemen for that matter that wants to compete with 2GRs) under EWPC will develop business models, which could include customers paying and owning a metering system. The critical point is those customers don’t have choice of middlemen under IMEUC. If that is not a case, then several middlemen will be able give customers’ choice, meaning that we are talking about the EWPC open market.

    The statement “Under EWPC a 2GR is effectively a middleman that will profit from selling (or renting) me new AMI smart meter capabilities under a retailing contract,” is incomplete because EWPC operates at the (Control and) Economic Level (False Fact #4: IMEUC operates on the Economic Level.). The contractual relationship between a customer and a middlemen involves (Economic Level) investments and operating costs of the customer and the middlemen (see the EWPC article The Sixth Disruptive Technology), no just “selling (or renting) me new AMI smart meter capabilities.”

    Wed, 04/23/2008 - 2:22pm
    I hate to disappoint you Jose, but you can chew on these facts for now.

    FACT #1: IMEUC and EWPC are both energy market reform proposals at this point in time, and not adopted by anyone yet. Ontario's paradigm has similarities to the EWPC model, but not entirely.

    FACT #2: EWPC has not been proven by anyone to be a "breakthrough" market architecture design paradigm. (If some jurisdiction has adopted EWPC, please let us know who it is.)

    FACT #3: Many utilities in North America are plunging forward with investing huge dollars in AMI systems and smart grid technologies, but none are appearing to even consider adopting EWPC. They are surely not telling us about it on this website forum if any are.

    FACT #4 : Len Gould's IMEUC in my opinion has the best chance of being adopted some day by some jurisdiction in North America. Why? As I write this there is a new affordable consumer residential smart metering technology being developed that will be marketed directly to consumers, not utility companies. It will be a wireless technology that one can retrofit on a house WITHOUT installing meter sockets for a traditional utility meter, and it will have the capability to record specific energy transactions like for future PHEV type of applications etc. This technology will be sold directly to consumers as real-time in-home energy use monitoring and bill tracking for consumers, and potentially also to appliance manufacturers for measuring energy efficiencies. Our utility regulators may even take notice of it and want to access it as a practical means to acquire consumption data for specific residential uses of electrical energy. And, they might just view it as a practical way to implement IMEUC.

    And guess what Jose, I am personally involved in developing it.

    Wed, 04/23/2008 - 7:55pm
    Bob,
    FACT #4. That's an unfeasible dream. Unless the utilities and regulators let you, by taking down the barriers on the demand side, your have nothing. The only way new business models will replace the utilities business model of winning rate cases to the regulators is by separating the utility grid and the utility enterprise, opening the latter to the competitive market.

    Wed, 04/23/2008 - 8:05pm
    FACT #2. Breakthrough are just mind shifts.

    EWPC emerged for the world of the third industrial revolution, where demand is no longer an externality and there is a need for a power system that should operate at ultraquality, with the help of demand response, in a wholesale, retail, customer value chain.

    The essence of EWPC is "the generic market model paradigm: Retail Competition, Active Demand, and Ultraquality Transportation," which includes wholesale competition, as 2GRs link both markets.

    Such essence is the basis for a breakthrough, which is the tipping point that shifts paradigms permanently. The breakthrough is … the epitome of the 'AHHA!' moment bringing absolute clarity and direction… that now … comes to the power industry for both the open (retail and wholesale) market (with competitive incentives for the development of business model innovations) and the closed (transportation) market (the new utility, with a responsibility to transport).

    Thu, 04/24/2008 - 7:13am
    Jose Antonio,
    I agree that the new smart metering technology I am developing to market to consumers may not necessarily be adopted by regulators or utility companies. But I disagree with you saying that unless the utilities and regulators let me, I will have nothing without the barriers being taken down on the demand side. In essence I don't care whether the electricity industry or regulators adopt it or not because consumers want this technology and are willing to pay for it, making it a potentially commercially viable technology.

    What I have learned about regulators and the utility industry is most are all generally risk averse, meaning most avoid participating or investing in the development of any new technology concepts. They much rather prefer to let technology suppliers bear all the risks in new technology development, and then go shopping for what has been perfected and is ready for commercial use.

    If my technology becomes commercially successful by selling it to consumers and possibly appliance manufacturers, then and only then will it have a chance to even be CONSIDERED by regulators and utility companies to be adopted. Sure they may not want it, and there may be a whole host of vested interests that may want to block it from being used by the electricity industry, but its commercial success will not depend on it being adopted by them is my whole point.

    When Len's IMEUC market reform proposals are recognized by the utility industry as being a desirable path to take, which you will surely disagree with, regulators and industry players will only consider adopting it if they can see practical ways to implement it. Regulators will not force anything on the industry that has not been demonstrated, or has no practical means to implement it. I could potentially resolve this with my technology.

    Also, your definition of a "breakthrough" is a change in traditional ways of thinking. In the world of engineering, breakthroughs must be proven technically and economically before anyone will agree that a new way of thinking is a breakthrough, because without proving it practice, it is nothing more than an idea. Remember Jose, for every breakthrough idea that is proven successful in practice, there are hundreds that are failures because they are flawed.

    Good luck with your EWPC Jose, you're going to need it.

    Thu, 04/24/2008 - 10:49am
    This is an attempt to have a mature level 3, win/win communications mode.

    I have invested many posts trying to patiently explain myself. I have been writing about market architecture and design, and getting technologies responses. I am sorry to have made the mistake to accept a comparison between EWPC and IMEUC, but they are not at all comparable. EWPC is about market structures and rules. EWPC development is about consulting work, not about technology design.

    I am assuming that a shift from today’s regulated markets (where utilities win cases to the regulators) to competitive markets is bound to occur at the global level. The market bridge between supply and demand can filled up by one of many business models. That is what the EWPC architecture is all about. As simple as that!

    One of many market bridges (a switchboard business model) is IMEUC that needs to have all customers on board. There are also switchboards that don’t need to have all customers on board. In that case what’s needed is a market design that doesn’t allow free riders. The resulting market rules are very important for the required transition period, where some customers remain under the old rules modified to eliminate cross-subsidies.

    There are many other alternative business models that retailers can develop to bridge supply and demand and which customers have choice to select. I contend that today’s 1GRs will be replaced by 2GRs that operate at the Control Level and the Economic Level to integrate demand to power system planning, operation, and control. That is the market breakthrough, not a technology breakthrough.

    To make progress, please avoid a technology oriented response.

    Thu, 04/24/2008 - 11:45am
    Jose Antonio,
    If your EWPC proposal is meant to be totally independent of technology design, it is a very admirable proposal indeed, and would certainly be a desirable concept. However few markets in any industry are totally independent of technology design, or totally independent of society culture and political forces. In my world of the electronics industry it has been commonplace throughout its history to open whole new consumer markets with new technology introductions.

    Technology design intimately affects everything old and new in the electricity industry, from power generation, distribution, electricity system information systems, to how consumers use electrical energy. The use of electrical energy is a commercial activity, as is also the commercialization of new technology, and their courses are / will be deeply rooted in economics as opposed to any idealistic vision of how commercial markets should be structured.

    If you believe that a 'market design' is possible that will work and will have longevity in the electricity industry without considering new technology design and its trends Jose, best of luck to you.

    Fri, 04/25/2008 - 3:33pm
    Readers are urged to take a look at the GMH post A Universal System with Price Spikes.

    The response to Bob can be found on the reference of the GMH post, where repeated the same post.

    yyy
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