Institute For The Future’s J. Dunagan Announced the Winners of the Smart Grid 2025 Game

By José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D.
Systemic Consultant: Electricity
IEEE Life Member
April 9th, 2011

An initiative of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) has given two professionals of the Dominican Republic to have the right to their strong ideas about the future. With that in mind, I am very happy to report, that it happened in the podcast interview, Examining the Results of the Smart Grid 2025 Game: Here's what game players like you predict for our electricity future, available on the IEEE spectrum website to the global audience, in the section “This Week in Technology,” hosted by Steven Cherry.

In the podcast, Jake Dunagan mentioned the strong participation of Rommel Vicini, at the time a Ph.D. student at the Monterrey Technological Institute of Technology and Higher Education, Mexico, and I, the EWPC-AF_Creator, now exercising my bragging rights. Mr. Dunagan is the project leader of the IEEE Spectrum Smart Grid 2025 game, which is a very serious game about the uncertain future we are facing.

Coming into a key issue of the podcast, in response to Steven’s question about "electronic converter prices," Jake said that Rommel's play led into two conversations. In fact, Rommel played the Positive Imagination Card, “Power electronics converters prices will become more attractive and cheaper as fossil fuel prices scale up. Good news for solar/wind energy.”

Then, on one hand, AnuKowli played the Investigation Card “How does this solve the issue of intermittent renewable generation?” and, in the other, EWPC-AF_Creator played the Investigation Card, “Which benefits do you anticipate for the market at the Bottom of the Pyramid? How many years?” To see the play by play action, please look at the Excel Worksheet Engagement Started by Rommel Vicini.

Getting into the other key issue, Steven Cherry said “in the end, the Smart Grid 2025 was a game." Then he asked "... who won?" Jake Dunagan said, “... well, it often gets complex. A player named Raul V.R. won by the bulk point that we had, which tends to reward longer conversations…” He then explains the inconsistencies of that system.

Inmediately, Jake added that, “One of the players came up with an alternative system of scoring and a proposal to declare different winners for the Smart Grid game.” In this person’s model the player EWPC-AF_Creator won, with secretengineer in second, mathpunk in third, Raul V.R. came in fourth and ligtvoet in fifth. Jake continue saying that it was a "... player reimagining the scoring system to find something more fair. To which Steven remarked “That’s very cool!”

I am also happy to report that I received a message from Raúl van Ree (Raul V.R.) saying “I am happy to hear that Jake [h]as mentioned and so given validity to your alternative winners proposal.” Still the important remaining question that is left is: what’s next?

So, “After listening to the interview of Jake Dunagan by Steven Cherry, I guess he was ending the project as is, due to the strong pressure he must have received during this past three weeks. I just don't see anyone in the IEEE completing his job.” That quote comes after digesting the whole process to give a balance view about what’s next, when I used dark imagination to come up with the blog post Was Jake Dunagan's Interview the END of the IEEE Spectrum Smart Grid 2025 Game? As the first big step into the future, the post starts with my quote that says:

In order to do what we need to do today to create the best possible future plausible scenario for the smart grid, the emergent, inclusive, holistic, simple, and minimalist, Electricity Without Price Controls Architecture Framework (EWPC-AF) was shown to have what it takes, in at least four of the ten engagements, that mutually reinforced each other, initiated by the EWPC-AF_Creator. For that outlier performance, it deserves to be given an opportunity to be widely known all over the whole world. Denying it such opportunity I humbly understand would be unfair to humanity.

Was Jake Dunagan's Interview the END of the IEEE Spectrum Smart Grid 2025 Game?

“In order to do what we need to do today to create the best possible future plausible scenario for the smart grid, the emergent, inclusive, holistic, simple, and minimalist, Electricity Without Price Controls Architecture Framework (EWPC-AF) was shown to have what it takes, in at least four of the ten engagements, that mutually reinforced each other, initiated by the EWPC-AF_Creator. For that outlier performance, it deserves to be given an opportunity to be widely known all over the whole world. Denying it such opportunity I humbly understand would be unfair to humanity.”

That is the first paragraph of the letter that I sent yesterday morning in the GMH post The Electricity Without Price Controls Architecture Framework as a Plausible Scenario to Mr. Jake Dunagan, of the Institute For The Future (IFTF), who maybe was the Project Leader of the IEEE Spectrum’s Smart Grid 2025 Game. After listening to the interview of Jake Dunagan by Steven Cherry, I guess he was ending the project as is, due to the strong pressure he must have received during this past three weeks. I just don't see anyone in the IEEE completing his job.

Until proven wrong, I believe that there is a strong status quo pressure to continue with a Smart Grid scenario that was proven completely ineffective. I say that after more than two weeks without any guidance whatsoever to the posts that were made public. Only on April 4th, after I had generated key information on the process to keep it alive and to turned it around into a real success, Mr. Dunagan wrote a very brief comment that said: “FYI. The .csv file now links to a version with the column headers. Great work on the visualizations and analysis so far. Let’s keep ‘em coming.”

Given the history of my comments, that can be seen in the link http://blog.smartgrid2025.org/?p=209 , as being numbered by the blog as 45, 54, 72, 75, 80, and 84, it seems that a lot of private traffic went through, as the first comment was number 39. Was that traffic secret to keep the status quo in place?

At this moment, my last comment, which happens to be the above mentioned GMH post, number 88, is still awaiting moderation, being registered in the system on April 6, 2011 at 8:22 am. In that comment I claimed that “The day after tomorrow will be three weeks that the IEEE Spectrum Smart Grid 2025 game ended and with the analysis that I have supplied both the IEEE Spectrum and the IFTF now will have sufficient information to let the players and the world know the results.”

I just wish to be proven 100 percent wrong.

The Electricity Without Price Controls Architecture Framework as a Plausible Scenario

Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
April 6th, 2011

Mr. Jake Dunagan
IEEE Spectrum's Smart Grid 2025 Game Project Leader
Institute For The Future
Palo Alto, California, USA

Dear Mr. Dunagan,

Good morning!

In order to do what we need to do today to create the best possible future plausible scenario for the smart grid, the emergent, inclusive, holistic, simple, and minimalist, Electricity Without Price Controls Architecture Framework (EWPC-AF) was shown to have what it takes, in at least four of the ten engagements, that mutually reinforced each other, initiated by the EWPC-AF_Creator. For that outlier performance, it deserves to be given an opportunity to be widely known all over the whole world. Denying it such opportunity I humbly understand would be unfair to humanity.

The above is in sharp contrast to the game introductory video that shows a Status Quo scenario, which was shown to lead to an exclusive, fragmented Smart Grid, with several variants that are highly complex, incremental extensions of the century old, obsolete, Investor Owned Utilities Architecture Framework (IOUs-AF). The obsolescence has a lot to do with an old world that was based on the no longer available guarantee of cheap energy, while the EWPC-AF is for a new world that will grow based on a guarantee of cheap information.

The day after tomorrow will be three weeks that the IEEE Spectrum Smart Grid 2025 game ended and with the analysis that I have supplied both the IEEE Spectrum and the IFTF now will have sufficient information to let the players and the world know the results. As you have witness, I have insistently done a lot work, during and after said game, to contribute to its success, while being happy to have enable you to write “Great work on the … analysis so far.”

Interpreting your call "Let’s keep ‘em coming,” to complete my analysis, I have made the following self explaining tweet:

gmh_upsa: Proposed Standing of the Remaining Players of the @IEEESpectrum #SmartGrid2025 Game http://bit.ly/GMH017 #EWPC @iftf #ForesightEngine

If you need anything else from me to expedite the results, please write to javs@ieee.org

Best regards,

José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D.
Systemic Consultant: Electricity
IEEE Life Member

What do we need to do today to create the best possible future for the smart grid?

The first thing that needs to be done, to create the best possible future for the smart grid, is a global institutional transformation to enable the Golden Era that Dr. Carlota Pérez described as a result of the recurring patterns in the previous four technological revolutions, of the past 240 years. As part of the global status quo, right now we are experiencing Casino Capitalism, which is just a symptom of fundamental issue of an exclusive short term financial capital that is driving instability in the world economy.

The Golden Era will be enable by a paradigm shift away from the status quo to the inclusive long term production capital as the driver, with financial capital coming back to its traditional supporting role of Golden Eras. Doing otherwise might be the end of capitalism. The best posible future of the smart grid under the Golden Era might be the one described in the GMH post Was the #EWPC-AF_Creator the All Around Winner of the Smart Grid 2025 Game?

Dr. Fernández: ¿Haría Usted el Intento de Convertirse en un Líder Global Auténtico?

“Estamos en la antesala de una nueva gran revolución tecnológica”

-- Doctor Leonel Fernández, Presidente de la República Dominicana.

Por José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D.
Miembro Vitalicio del IEEE
Miembro de la Academia de Ciencias
Consultor Sistémico

En la víspera de otra gran celebración del 30 de marzo, celebro también el 12avo aniversario del GRITO PATRIOTICO POR LA INTERDEPENDENCIA ELECTRICA. Al igual que ayer, sigo viendo como nuestro sector eléctrico persiste todavía en una crisis sistémica de grandes proporciones, que explico más adelante por el modelo mental que impera en el FMI y en otras entidades multilaterales. Como verán a continuación, esta crisis es el resultado de una institucionalidad perversa, que a pesar de estar “requete” obsoleta, mantiene a la fuerza el status quo político global.

Es ese superpoderoso status quo el que, por ejemplo, bloquea la salida a la luz pública de los resultados del juego Smart Grid 2025, organizado por el IEEE Spectrum y ejecutado en el Foresight Engine of the Institute For The Future, en el que resultó evidente que el escenario ganador del futuro superó con un cambio de paradigma el escenario que dicho superpoderoso status quo está ya implantando. Al respecto, pueden ver la nota Was the EWPC-AF_Creator the All Around Winner of the Smart Grid 2025 Game?

Aunque parece un gran salto, sin mucha lógica, pasar de dicho “inofensivo juego” al status quo de la política de carácter global, que por supuesto domina también el estatus quo local, la realidad papable es que el futuro del pueblo dominicano está íntimamente ligado al potencial de que el mundo cambie para que tengamos la posibilidad de prosperar. Ese es un puente y ahora sigue el otro.

Aparentemente sin buena lógica tampoco, podríamos evitar el debate interno desgastante sobre la reelección, que podría resultar innecesario, si el Presidente Dr. Leonel Fernández Reyna asume el sacrificio que le propongo. Hago esta propuesta alternativa que también pongo a la consideración de todos los dominicanos, sin distinción.

En estos tiempos de gran oscuridad e incertidumbre global, el principal problema a corto y largo plazos de la República Dominicana y de la gran mayoría de los países en desarrollo, agrupados posiblemente en el G-77, no es de carácter interno, como el de las luchas electorales. En esto momentos de una crisis externa de grandes proporciones, propongo muy humilde y también respetuosamente al Señor Presidente que abandone la reelección local y decida convertirse en un estadista global, espacio que ha estado conquistando desde hace tiempo. Por ejemplo, si fuese posible, tomando el liderazgo y transformando lo que hoy es el programa G-77 de la Organización de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) en una gran fuerza política, social, económica y cultural a nivel global.

Esta sugerencia se ampara en las declaraciones ofrecidas después del debate que se originó luego de la presentación de Heiner Flassbeck, director de la División de Globalización y Estrategias de Desarrollo de la (UNCTAD), cuando el Dr. Fernández advirtió que:

…lo que está claro es que la República Dominicana no puede ser indiferente no puede cruzarse de brazos y tiene que jugar un rol de liderazgo en hacer que el mundo cambie, porque aquí ya lo estamos viviendo, cuando suben los precios el pueblo dominicano se irrita, se molesta, se incomoda y cree que el responsable es el Gobierno, y los responsables son los que están en la economía de casino, a nivel mundial

La especulación y el capitalismo de casino están llevando al hambre a millones de personas en el mundo lo que están provocando disturbios sociales, inestabilidad política y eso va ha ser autodestructivo; la economía mundial no puede seguir funcionando de esa manera y no puede seguir siendo un capitalismo destructor, generador de muerte, miseria y penurias para millones de personas.

Mi sugerencia se apoya también en que la economía, capitalismo o finanzas de casino es solamente un síntoma de un problema subyacente mayor. Para explicarlo me baso en el libro de Peter Schwartz, “The Art of the Long View: Planning for the future in an uncertain World,” que compré y devoré hace 12 años, a mi regreso de ejercicio gerencial dirigido a desarrollar las ventajas competitivas de la República Dominicana en la ciudad de Cambridge, Massachusetts, que menciono al inicio del GRITO PATRIOTICO POR LA INTERDEPENDENCIA ELECTRICA.

Schwartz argumenta [adaptación libre mía] que “A menudo, los líderes prefieren la ilusión de la certeza en vez de comprender los riesgos y las realidades. Si el pronosticador falla en su tarea, cómo se le puede echar la culpa al líder? Pero a largo plazo, al negar la incertidumbre prepara el terreno para las sorpresas, haciendo añicos su confianza en su habilidad para mirar adelante. Los escenarios le permiten a un líder decir, “estoy preparado para lo que suceda.” Es esta habilidad para actuar con un sentido de riesgo y recompensa, basado en el conocimiento, el que separa tanto al ejecutivo y al individuo sabio del burócrata o el apostador.

Como anticipé, esa explicación aplica 100 por 100 a las recetas del FMI. Esto así, porque reiteradamente el FMI sigue el obsoleto modelo mental de Keynes que dice que “la sabiduría convencional enseña que es mejor para la reputación fallar de forma convencional que ser exitoso de manera no convencional.” En efecto, el FMI prefiere mantener la ilusión de la certeza de un mundo, que repito está basado en una “institucionalidad perversa, que a pesar de estar ‘requete’ obsoleta, mantiene a la fuerza el status quo político global.”

Interpretando las explicaciones de la brillante experta Venezolana, la Dra. Carlota Pérez, “investigadora, conferencista y consultora internacional, experta en el impacto socio-económico del cambio tecnológico y en las condiciones históricamente cambiantes para el crecimiento, el desarrollo y la competitividad,” entiendo que el mundo tiene dos escenarios por delante: una Era Dorada y lamentablemente a falta del liderazgo auténtico necesario una costosa continuación del status quo para nuestros países. Para que la Era Dorada se materialice, la Dra. Pérez afirma que el capital financiero de corto plazo debe ser sustituido por el capital productivo de largo plazo, logrando que el capital financiero pase de nuevo a ocupar, como lo ha hecho en las cuatro revoluciones tecnológicas de los últimos 240 años, el rol de estar al servicio del capital productivo. En efecto, el síntoma del capitalismo de casino es el resultado de la preponderancia del status quo, que impone la causa subyacente del capital financiero de corto plazo.

Para lograr el cambio anterior, la Dra. Pérez anticipa grandes cambios institucionales a nivel global y local, que entre muchas cosas modificaría el rol que juega el FMI para proteger el status quo para que entonces la institución que lo sustituya, que podría surgir del esfuerzo en el G-77, pase a impulsar la Era Dorada. Se trata de un cambio de paradigma mayor en el que al perderse la garantía de la energía barata del paradigma anterior, el mundo pasa a organizarse alrededor de la garantía de la información barata.

La Dra. Pérez explica que en la primera fase que termina con la burbuja, ya está instalada la infraestructura de la quinta revolución, la Revolución de las Tecnologías de la Información y las Telecomunicaciones (TICs). Que estamos en lo que ella llama el punto clave (Tipping Point), que interpreto nos presenta los dos escenarios.

Ella indica además que la aspiración del mundo entero por el estilo de vida de los americanos (The American Way), que se basa en la energía barata, requiere siete planetas tierra. Por eso ella ofrece una visión de la Era Dorada, basada en una amplia recuperación que aproveche el poder de la globalización, valores “verdes,” y mucho más importante, las TICs. Por “verde” ella sugiere que es necesario un cambio amplio en estilos de vida y métodos de producción y de transporte.

Was the EWPC-AF_Creator the All Around Winner of the Smart Grid 2025 Game?

First update. Next you can see original comments posted on the EWPC Blog.

Comments

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 2:49pm

To get familiar with the EWPC-AF, I suggest reading the long discussion I had with Mr. James Carson. The discussion continued under the first and second entry that can be seen on the "Four Entries Bundle on the #EWPC-AF posted on November 30 and December 8, 10, and 13, 2009 http://bit.ly/EWPC93 . That bundle gives a much complete picture of the EWPC-AF at the end of 2009.

In the second entry, "I think the Debate on the IOUs and EWPC Architecture Frameworks is Over," Mr. Carson wrote "The debate is indeed over. My point that no sane regulator would ever follow Jose Antonio's plan has not been refuted." That was his last post. You could see my response to him, but I have below a much simple one as a result of the above mentioned EEE Spectrum Smart Grid of 2025 Game, as can be seen from the following plays:

Momentum Card by EWPC-AF_Creator: "Set the energy policy priority as system performance first, short run economic costs second."

Adaptation Card by capt_stargazer: "That would be great if it happened. Just doesn't reflect the reality of policy-making in my experience. Hopefully things could change!"

Adaptation Card by EWPC-AF_Creator: "That only happens very rarely when the old system is replaced by the new system, as it happened to banks in the Great Depression of 1930s."

Momentum Card by capt_stargazer: "Therefore, it makes sense to prepare for the next disruption and be ready to move when that window of change opens."

Momentum Card by EWPC-AF_Creator: The IEEE Spectrum looks carefully to the EWPC post "Why the Smart Grid World Forum Requires Learning About T&D Transportation Ultraquality" ( I add here to look at the link http://bit.ly/8XF5b1
)

Momentum Card by capt_stargazer: "Rolling black-outs and failure of traditional grid provides real-time proving ground for micro-innovation."

Momentum Card by EWPC-AF_Creator: "SG eliminates the need to open medium voltage circuit brakers. A whole new ball game opens in all kinds of innovation on the power industry."

End of the tree branch.

Jose Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio

Thu, 07/23/2015 - 7:06am

No es sorpresa que algunos links funcionan y otros no. Uno que funciona fue superado por conocimiento que emergió posteiormente.

Jose Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio

By José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D.
IEEE Life Member
March 24, 2011

As the self named creator of the Electricity Without Price Control Architecture Framework (EWPC-AF), I participated with a lot of interest in the great opportunity generated by the IEEE Spectrum organized and sponsored Smart Grid of 2025 Game. The interest was in order to show that I had already created as a very different scenario the best possible future for the Smart Grid in the world.

That Game was executed last week in the notoriously effective and efficient Foresight Engine platform of the Institute For the Future (IFTF). As might be seen in the interdependent engagements on the Game’s DASHBOARD, that future is well in accordance with the IEEE Tag Line of Advancing Technology for Humanity. The Tag Line subset I had already identified in public discussions is Advancing Grids for Customers.

It is important to understand that the experiments conducted in the Foresight Engine collaborative community are generally known for its capacity to exploit the “Wisdom of Crowds,” by building up ideas that engage players to gain momentum as an analytic feasible winning scenario. But, according to the IFTF it is also very powerful and useful device to facilitate collaborative testing by players in the community, of what they call “outlier” ideas, like that of the original EWPC-AF idea, that I claim are synthesized by one person or a very small team.

Before asking the question “Was the EWPC-AF_Creator the All Around Winner of the Smart Grid 2025 Game?,” I first executed a kind of due process, by asking many times, through several social network channels, like the News blog of the said Game, Twitter, in particular the @iftf twitter account, as well as Facebook, the EWPC Blog, to be able to see in the full DASHBOARD where all the players stand.

In the mean time, as far as I can see, even when the IFTF kindly tweeted to their more than 6,000 followers the EWPC post Did a Paradigm Shift Emerge in the 24 Hours of the IEEE Spectrum Smart Grid 2025 Game?, no one else like me has insistently asked to see the mentioned DASHBOARD or have even questioned the plausibility of the EWPC-AF paradigm shift scenario. A summary of some of my actions can be seen as a comment under Steve Cherry’s IEEE Spectrum podcast Planning the Smart Grid—Today.

Tomorrow it will be a whole week after the Game ended. While I understand that time is of the essence, no response has been given to me so far. In the very likely case of having won, in order to have any opportunity to exert my bragging rights, I feel that I have been pushed to take the risk of posting the next story as one respectful attempt to ask for transparency.

At the time of Game’s closing, the EWPC-AF_Creator had gained sufficient momentum to climb to third place on the Leaderboard, on the 18th of March, after having already received the day before two awards from the Foresight guides. However, it seems that, the players in first and second position had not been given any award.

In fact, early on, the EWPC-AF_Creator was given by the Foresight guides a Heisenberg award, as the player that had the biggest impact on the conversation. Later on, he was given a Feyman award, for the Micro-forecast with the clearest sense of the small picture.

Having won as JoseAntonio one of the several Ted Talks awarded in the IEEE Spectrum sponsored Energy/H2O game last year, other forecasting achievements to be awarded by the Foresight guides that I was expecting to win were:

A Ted Talk award, on the EWPC-AF for the Micro-forecast most worthy of an 18-minute elaboration. As candidate for that award were at least the following three EWPC-AF interdependent Micro-forecast, that as suggested by IFTF sparked the most conversations with the Trilogy:

• The Positive Imagination "Consider a paradigm shift away from the current Investor Owned Utilities Architecture Framework (IOUs-AF) and its incremental extensions," that engaged for at least 60 ideas.
• The Dark Imagination Card "The main barrier is an energy policy that has led to a fragmented Smart Grid. Just like the reengineering movement, we need a clean slate," that engaged for at least 36 ideas.
• In response to the suggestion "If you could change any practice, law or custom what would it be?,” the Positive Imagination Card "The reductionist mental model of most executives, what W. Edwards Deming called the prevailing style of management" that was engaged for at least 32 ideas.

A Macarthur Genius award as a Micro-forecast most worthy of five-year funding.

A Hawkings award as a Micro-forecast with the clearest sense of the very big picture.

A Venter award as the Micro-forecast that makes the biggest paradigm shift.

And the MRF ARC™ award as the idea that offers the most holistic approach.

Please Play the Smart Grid Game on the Future of Electricity, Starting on Thursday March 17, 2011, at Noon

Dear leader,

I have good news for you about the emerging reality in the global electricity industry. To start getting in touch with it, please Listen to the podcast Planning the Smart Grid of 2025—Today. That is a very strong message that things can change for the better for customers and society as a whole, clearly only if we decide to participate.

As you will see, not only global issues, but also local issues are being asked for. I think that with at least 10 of us playing, we will show up in the game statistics, and even if we don’t make it, we will have a critical mass of representatives to tell our problems and see our opportunities reflected in what other countries representative will say while interacting with us. We should not miss this great and timely opportunity.

The future of electricity in the World has been organized as a game with the support of the IEEE Spectrum. In order to play, you, or someone you know, can register in http://smartgrid2025.org/ by hitting Create Player. We need to be represented with professionals and citizens that are future oriented.

The game starts with a scenario which can be seen after hitting Play Intro Video. I suggest starting and stopping the video and taking notes of what you like and what you dislike about the scenario. That is the key reference for the game.

The game starts on Thursday, March 17th, at noon. Please take a look at the introductory video, before playing time to get familiar with the initial scenario. The starting question of the process is What do we need to do today to create the best possible future for the smart grid?

The game runs for a whole day, however, you can spend just a few minutes or many hours of play, depending of your level of interest. If you know someone that might be interested in playing, just forward this message to him or her.

Playing is easy. One way is to hit “Prepare for the Game How to Win.” Another way that gets you to the same place is http://smartgrid2025.org/how_to_play , which also takes you to HOW TO WIN and QUICK CHALLENGES in the already mentioned webpage.

Please look also to “Get More Information - LEARN MORE,” that has the same content in the link "ABOUT" in the first line of the just mentioned webpage.

I understand that there is full confidentiality available for players by electing an appropriate username. If you need any additional information, please get in touch with me.

Best regards

José Antonio
--
José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, PhD. @ Linkedin
Systemic Consultant: Electricity.
Creator of the EWPC-AF
BS ´68, MS ´71 & PhD ´72, all from Cornell University.
IEEE Life Member since Jan 1st. 2011
javs@ieee.org
Follow on http://twitter.com/gmh_upsa
EWPC Blog
Grupo Millennium Hispaniola Blog
Research and practice areas, and interests: Electricity Without Price Controls Architecture Framework (EWPC-AF); Business models, Systems architecture; Systems thinking; Retail marketing; Customer orientation; Information systems requirements and design; Market rules; Contract assistance.

La Estrategia Nacional de Desarrollo y la Sugerencia de Cambio a la Política Energética

La Estrategia Nacional de Desarrollo y la Sugerencia de Cambio a la Política Energética

Por José Antonio Vanderhorst Silverio, Ph.D.
Consultor Sistémico: Electricidad
25 de Febrero, 2011

La sugerencia de un cambio en la política energética responde a la nota ¿Pondremos la Educación y/o la Electricidad en el Núcleo o en el Contexto de la Estrategia Nacional de Desarrollo? Para resolver de forma definitiva nuestra crisis sistémica que lleva medio siglo, la sugerencia es realizar un cambio de la política energética que saque la electricidad del contexto y la ponga en el núcleo de la End.

De acuerdo a la noticia de S. Arias y R. Mateo, publicada hoy en Diario Libre, el “Presidente Fernández tiene listo el discurso de rendición de cuentas.” Agregan que “el mandatario trabaja en la revisión y corrección del texto.” Dicen además que “… estaría centrado en una defensa a su política económica.” Como verán, dicha sugerencia al Señor Presidente es que pondere también un cambio de su política energética tomando en cuenta el conocido efecto sistémico de la “realimentación compensadora” que explico más adelante.

Arias y Mateo adelantan que “Leonel Fernández aprovechará su visita al Congreso Nacional para someter” entre otros proyectos de ley “… la Estrategia Nacional de Desarrollo (END) a 20 años.” Para justificar mi sugerencia, concentro la atención en la aplicación de las leyes de La Quinta Disciplina, destacando las dificultades que enfrenta la política energética que necesitan considerarse en la END.

El témpano sistémico que corresponde a las mencionadas dificultades sale a flote en la reciente discusión en que se echan mutuamente la culpa los directivos de la Superintendencia de Electricidad (SIE) y la Corporación Dominicana de Empresas Eléctricas Estatales (CDEEE). Veamos:

De acuerdo a la noticia “CDEEE enfrenta a la Superintendencia por crítica a las Edes,” publicada ayer por José Javier, “El vicepresidente de la Corporación Dominicana de Empresas Eléctricas Estatales (CDEEE), Celso Marranzini, acusó ayer a la Superintendencia de Electricidad de bloquear el trabajo que realizan las empresas distribuidoras… El funcionario respondió así preguntas en torno al reclamo que hizo el superintendente de Electricidad, Francisco Méndez, para que se deje trabajar con libertad a los administradores de las distribuidoras y puedan superar el déficit financiero que arrastra el sector.”

Aunque todas las leyes de La Quinta Disciplina aplican, tomaré la segunda y la última, que aparecen en las páginas del libro del mismo nombre, escrito por Peter Senge para conocer que nos trae el referido témpano sistémico. La segunda ley dice que “Cuanto más se presiona, más presiona el sistema.”

Senge explica que “En Rebelión en la Granja, de George Orwell, el caballo Boxer siempre tenía la misma respuesta a cualquier dificultad: ‘Trabajaré con mayor empeño.’ Al principio, su bien inspirada diligencia inspiraba a todos, pero gradualmente su empeño comenzó a tener efectos sutiles y contraproducentes. Cuanto más trabajaba, más trabajo había. Boxer ignoraba que los cerdos que manejaban la granja los estaban manipulando para su propio provecho. La diligencia de Boxer ayudaba a impedir que los demás animales vieran lo que hacían los cerdos. El pensamiento sistémico tiene un nombre para este fenómeno: ‘realimentación compensadora.’ Hay realimentación compensadora cuando las intervenciones bien intencionadazas provocan respuestas del sistema que compensan los frutos de la intervención. Todos conocemos la sensación de enfrentar la realimentación compensadora: cuando más presionamos, más presiona el sistema; cuando más esfuerzo realizamos para mejorar las cosas, más esfuerzo se requiere… Los ejemplos de realimentación compensadoras son innumerables…”

Peter Senge en la última ley (la #11) dice claramente que "No hay culpa." Senge explica que "Solemos culpar a las circunstancias externas por nuestros problemas. "Alguien - los competidores, la prensa, el ánimo inconstante del mercado, el gobierno - nos perjudicó. El pensamiento sistémico muestra que no hay nada externo: nosotros y la causa de nuestros problemas formamos parte de un solo sistema. La cura radica en la relación con nuestro "enemigo."

How to Get Utilities and Regulators Out of Their Comfort Zones and Fixations

In order to get utilities and especially public utilities commissions “out of their comfort zones and fixations” and “to raise the quality of their games,” I repeat my suggestions in the post The New California Capitalist Model to Initiate the Transformation of the Global Power Industry . That post, written to respond Kate Rowland’s challenge of August 16, 2010, was based on a quote made by Peter Darbee, CEO and president of PG&E Corporation, which said:

As we go forward, I think the stakes are very great because once again, California is in the position to serve as the model for the rest of the United States when the United States has said it's not ready to move forward. And the challenge that we have is, are we going to be a good model, or a bad model, or an indifferent model.

Herman K. Trabish’s greentechmedia article The Transmission Quandary of California: Experts debate how the state can put more renewables on the grid, of January 28, 2011, is a welcome contribution for the urgent transformation for the power industry and the source that inspired this post.

Trabish writes that “Californians gathered in Los Angeles for the fourth annual VerdeXchange, a business-to-business cross-platform cleantech conference, seemed a little dazed this year, caught between the exhilaration of having a standard requiring utilities to obtain a third of their power from renewable energy by 2020 and panic at having to implement such a standard.”

Trabish quotes John White, Executive Director of the Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewables Technologies (CEERT), who said about the integration of renewables : “If you knew how complicated it was, you’d be amazed.” However, “Ultimately, these are not technically difficult models,” White said. “They are politically difficult because they require people to get outside their respective comfort zones and fixations.” But, he added, “we’ve got to find a way to have everybody raise the quality of their game in an effort to make this task successful.” And, he said. “I don’t think it’s a question of whether it can be done, it’s a question of how it can be done.”

On GOP Energy Plan - A Simple Global Principle that Might Break the Gridlock

According to Martin Rosenberg, Editor-in-Chief of EnergyBiz Magazine, in his article GOP Energy Plan Takes Shape, “Rep. Devin Nunes is emerging as one of the key architects of new Republican thinking on energy.” I understand that the article is very popular, as it has at this moment over 2,160 hits and 13 comments.

As expected, there are comments in favor and against about said GOP Plan. In addition, there are two interesting comments. One is asking Democrats and Republicans for a new non partisan plan “… they need to work together.” The opinion ends with otherwise “… nothing good is likely to happen.”

The other is regarding a key element of the GOP plan, where someone else comments that “Roadmaps are wonderful things… However, their utility is dependent upon a knowledge of two key points: where we are; and, where we're going. I am unconvinced we know where we are going, or where we need to go.”

I submit, that my comment, that preceded both of the above, can be considered as a non partisan plan, that shows “... where we’re going.” This is what it says:

A Simple Global Principle that Might Break the Gridlock

The initial GOP approach seems to take for granted the principle that energy will remain the cheap element of the “most dynamic economy in the world.” Based on her highly respected research work about technological revolutions, Dr. Carlota Pérez suggests that the emerging principle of the current information and communication technology revolution is that information becomes the cheap element for the whole economy. To begin negotiations with the aim to quickly end the gridlock, maybe both Republicans and Democrats should consider that simple, but not simplistic, principle of global scope.

Here is one application of that principle. The old guarantee of cheap energy was a key underlying assumption behind the development of the Investor Owned Utilities Architecture Framework (IOUs-AF), which until close to the year 1970 enable a virtuous circle in the power industry concentrated on the development of the resources of the supply side. Starting with first PURPA and followed by EPAct 92,US Congress has added incremental extensions of the IOUs-AF that have kept that supply side orientation, which, under organized wholesale markets in several jurisdictions, needed to go back to key IOUs-AF features like adding capacity markets. For lack of a robust energy policy, other jurisdictions have kept closer to the original IOUs-AF.

The new guarantee of cheap information is the key underlying assumption behind the development of the Electricity Without Price Controls Architecture Framework (EWPC-AF), which, once enacted through energy policy, will enable once again a virtuous circle in the industry by adding the development of the resources of the demand side to those of the supply side. As an example of how the EWPC-AF avoids the need to go back to IOUs-AF features, please take a look at the post Making Joskow’s “Missing Money” Capacity Markets Obsolete.

José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, PhD
Creator of the EWPC-AF

Making Joskow’s “Missing Money” Capacity Markets Obsolete

Under The Baltimore Sun, Jay Hancock's blog, What electricity re-regulation would look like, I posted the following comment:

Dear Mr. Hancock,

I agree with the idea of the messed-up wholesale electricity market that you posted yesterday. The problem with those incomplete markets begs complete markets that enable a virtuous circle, instead of [going] backwards to the obsolete properties of vertical integration that lack said virtuous circle. The need is to go forward with retail and wholesale markets that mutually reinforce each other.

At the center of such complete markets is the emergent smart grid that does not require capacity markets. Please take a look at an article that starts with "The Electricity Without Price Controls (EWPC) Architecture Framework (EWPC-AF) is a basic innovation that greatly simplifies today’s exceeding complex power industry. The EWPC-AF emerged to replace the century old Investor Owned Utilities (IOUs) Architecture Framework (IOUs-AF) and its incremental extensions, such as Open Transmission Access, Capacity Markets, NERC Mandatory Requirements, and now the regulated architecture Smart Grid," in the link http://bit.ly/8XJlra

Best regards,

José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, PhD
Creator of the EWPC-AF

Later on, under the above mentioned blog, The messed-up wholesale electricity market, MarketWatcher added:

Jay: It appears that you have a significant issue with the PJM Reliability Pricing Model (commonly known as the Capacity Market). Perhaps this paper from Paul Joskow (former MIT prof) will help you understand the need for this market http://econ-www.mit.edu/files/2095.”

The excellent paper by Dr. Joskow “… argues on a variety of imperfections in wholesale ‘energy-only’ electricity markets lead to generators earning net revenues that are inadequate to support investment in a least cost portfolio of generating capacity and to satisfy consumer preferences for reliability. Theoretical and numerical examples are used to illustrate the sources of this “missing money” problem.”

The EWPC-AF is not an incomplete “energy-only” wholesale market, based mainly on the development of the resources of the supply side. Since it is also based on the development of the resources of the demand side, the “missing money” problem disappears altogether, as generation portfolios are developed in the Open Market Business System (OMBS) of the EWPC-AF (no regulatory price caps as in Joskow’s benchmark model) for maximum value creation that satisfy consumer preferences for reliability, while the regulated power (integrated transmission and distribution) transportation service system (RPTSS) of the EWPC-AF is expanded as a least costs portfolio for power system (not customer) reliability.

Inversiones Equilibradas en Infraestructuras Tangible e Intangible en el Sueño Dominicano

La cultura de no pago de la electricidad es en esencia un problema de la infraestructura intangible de educación. El abordaje del síntoma robo de electricidad con base a tratar de cambiar el comportamiento de los usuarios a la brava es un medio muy caro e insostenible que pospone la solución definitiva que involucra el necesario cambio socio cultural, que se manifiesta diseñando e implantando sistemas y procesos que cambien las creencias, los valores y la actitud de los clientes.

El debate entre la inversión en infraestructuras tangibles, como las centrales eléctricas, las carreteras, y las intangibles, como la educación, la salud, la comercialización al detalle de electricidad, es crucial para lograr una Estrategia Nacional de Desarrollo que persiga el Sueño Dominicano.

La lucha por el 4% para la Educación debería concentrarse en el equilibrio entre la inversión en infraestructura intangible y la tangible. En el pensamiento tradicional de los políticos lo importante es el insumo tangible, la construcción de escuelas, los laboratorios, en vez de los resultados intangibles, maestros y alumnos de alta calidad al que debemos cambiar.

El debate sobre el crecimiento del país está centrado en la diferencia entre la producción a bajo costo que auspicia la infraestructura tangible y la creación de mayor valor agregado que genera la intangible. En un mundo globalizado donde tenemos muy pocas ventajas comparativas en la producción tangible de bajo costo para poder diferenciarnos, necesitamos desarrollar nuestras ventajas en la creación intangible de alto valor agregado empezando con la infraestructura intangible de educación. La educación en la comercialización de electricidad para diferenciarnos y lograr una ventaja comparativa del nuevo equilibrio en el mundo globalizado es una estrategia de doble infraestructura intangible que podemos iniciar con la mayor brevedad como parte de la Estrategia Nacional de Desarrollo.

El ejemplo típico del nuevo equilibrio aparece en la infraestructura telefónica tangible a base de redes alámbrica y la intangible a base de inalámbricas. Ese ejemplo aclara que hay cosas tangibles que dejan de ser necesarias con la aparición de infraestructuras intangibles. Una oportunidad similar surge con una reestructuración del sector eléctrico para con base a la infraestructura de educación cambiar del modo de pensar del bajo costo al modo de pensar del mayor valor agregado. Esa oportunidad nace al aprovechar la gran capacidad instalada en poder de los clientes como se mencionó en el email con el asunto ¿Debería el Sueño Dominicano estar Restringido a Evitar Resultados Alarmantes en la Industria?.

eMail Enviado: Propongo que el 1 1 11 Marque el Inicio del Sueño Dominicano a Definirse en este Año

Estimada o estimado líder,

A continuación, muy cortésmente, en el día inicial del año 2011, doy unas pinceladas sobre un pronóstico de lo que podría ser el futuro del país. Entiendo que tarde o temprano, el mundo emergente estará impulsado por el cambio transformador de la desaparición de la garantía de la energía barata a la de la ya conocida llegada de la garantía de la información barata. Por eso también entiendo que nuestra Estrategia Nacional de Desarrollo (END) necesita basarse en el gigantesco apalancamiento sistémico que impulsará ese simple cambio.

El sueño americano, que apalancó la cultura del consumismo de bienes tangibles que impera en nuestro país, emergió en base a la garantía de la energía barata y es evidentemente insostenible para expandirse al resto del mundo sin dicha garantía. Por eso, en un mundo en que imperará la globalización sistémica, en este día 1 1 11, propongo que el sueño Dominicano sea impulsado con base a la garantía de la información barata, la cual podría tener grandes repercusiones de prosperidad en todos los estratos de la economía, la sociedad, la cultura y el medio ambiente.

De seguir algún tipo de consumismo, es altamente probable que el proceso sea cada vez más basado en servicios intangibles en vez de bienes tangibles. De hecho, ese proceso parece ya haberse iniciado en el país y ser el que impulsa el crecimiento de la economía, por ejemplo, a base de celulares muy baratos que inducen a una elevada factura del servicio telefónico y que afecta la reestructuración del poder adquisitivo de los consumidores incrementando la proporción hacia el bienestar que producen los intangibles.

Si los dominicanos nos ponemos de acuerdo en perseguir este sueño, el mismo generará un cambio importante en el desarrollo de nuestras instituciones y de nuestra cultura. En el sentido institucional, aprovecho para integrar esta idea a una discusión, motivada en que el 2011 fue declarado “Año por la Transparencia y el Fortalecimiento Institucional”, según consta en el decreto número 728-10, firmado por el presidente Leonel Fernández. En la introducción de dicha discusión, que ya había iniciado en el Grupo Plan Dominicano de Desarrollo Sistémico en Linkedin con el tema ¿Necesitaremos un Debate sobre la Innovación Institucional?, ayer escribí:

Mi primera apreciación. Por la existencia de muchas islas de poder, mi opinión es que hace mucha falta innovación institucional para poder ejecutar una Estrategia Nacional de Desarrollo en que los sectores público y privado queden alineados hacia una visión de conjunto sobre el futuro emergente.

Según consta en la literatura económica, dicho mundo emergente estará dominado por Corporaciones Globales que concentrarán su atención en el núcleo vías redes empresariales y para aumentar su eficiencia harán un uso intensivo de outsourcing para ejecutar actividades del contexto. En un sentido parecido es que redacté la nota ¿Pondremos la Educación y/o la Electricidad en el Núcleo o en el Contexto de la Estrategia Nacional de Desarrollo?

Es importante destacar las ventajas que tenemos para insertarnos en las Corporaciones Globales vía los acuerdos comerciales del DR-CAFTA y de los EPAs, las que también están ancladas en el éxito logrado con el modelo de outsourcing de Zonas Francas, así como con el éxito emergente del modelo de clusters que adquiere mucho valor de referencia en el mundo de hoy por sus ventajas de redes sistémicas.

En este año en que la transparencia y la institucionalidad podrían cobrar vigencia, sugiero que similar al éxito de los movimientos de redes sociales sobre la planta de cemento de los Haitises y sobre el del 4% para la educación, hace falta que concentremos ahora la atención en la END.

Esperando que seamos capaces de definir un próspero sueño dominicano en el 2011, muy atentamente,

José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D. - LinkedIn

Cuento de Navidad "Un País Sin Apagones Arbitrarios," que se Suma al del 4% para la Educación y al de "El Correo Electrónico" del Dr. Molina Morillo

Estimada o estimado líder,

Muy cortésmente, sugiero que lean lo que muy respetuosamente considero como el Cuento de Navidad El correo electrónico, escrito por el Dr. Rafael Molina Morillo (DRMM). Recomiendo encarecidamente, tomarlo muy en cuenta, ya que sugiere una reedición del altamente exitoso Cuento de Navidad de un 4% para la Educación. En este tercer Cuento de Navidad la consigna es #RDUPSA que trata de vislumbrar República Dominicana Un País Sin Apagones Arbitrarios, que transforma el servicio eléctrico en uno que la gente adore aquí y también en el extranjero.

Amparado en los avances de lo que el DRMM llama “Nuestra Señora de la Tecnología,” por ejemplo, Facebook, Twitter y los Blogs, que son instrumentos de redes sociales, que nacieron para el mercado de consumo y se vienen difundiendo rápidamente en el país, han emergido para transformar radicalmente las relaciones sociales de los consumidores con las empresas, para así aumentar la creación de valor mejorando significativamente la experiencia de los clientes. Son precisamente esos avances de la humanidad en la era digital los que permiten ir más allá de las sugerencias de la Comisión dirigida por Monsieur Attali, sobre “Desarrollar servicios públicos de calidad.” Como escribí anteriormente, sugiero “… impulsar uno que la gente adore conforme al futuro emergente a nivel global. Un servicio eléctrico que la gente adore… cambiaría grandemente en el lado positivo la imagen internacional del sector eléctrico.”

En vez de seguir trabajando intensamente para quedarnos cada vez más atrasados en la era digital, gastando recursos pensando solamente en la realidad imperante local, que se concentra a enfrentar principalmente el hurto generalizado, bajo una reestructuración del sector eléctrico basada en la EWPC-AF el alcance de las oportunidades en el mercado global, para mejorar significativamente la experiencia del cliente, que además de enfrentar el hurto va mucho más allá de esa realidad sin dejar de lado importantes oportunidades para mejorar su rentabilidad y su sostenibilidad. Para entender las grandes oportunidades latentes que he venido documentando, sugiero que pongan atención a la nota The Rise of the Intermediates, cuyo titular (Tweet) coloqué en “la bendición divina (según el DRMM)” del canal Twitter, acompañada con las consignas (hashtags) #EWPC #RDUPSA que agrupan y permiten, dentro de ese canal, el acceso a Tweets anteriores relacionados.

Pretendiendo hacer de la República Dominicana Un País Sin Apagones Arbitrarios, al transformar el servicio eléctrico en uno que la gente adore, ¿sería posible que nos entusiasmemos en tratar de reeditar otro Cuento de Navidad bajo la consigna #RDUPSA?

Feliz Navidad

The Rise of the Intermediates

"The Rise of the Intermediates" is the Fourth Tectonic Shift (see Fourteen Tectonic Shifts for Green, written by Michael Kanellos, on December 20, 2010 ) that I suggest in the following comment might signaled the end of electric power utilities retail monopolies. What is your point of view?

Hi Michael,

At the end of this post is the free summary of Gartner’s 2011 predictions, which seem to relate well with “The Rise of the Intermediates” that “…will fill the gap between utilities and consumers and, ideally, will be able to make their fees more palatable by being able to garner revenue from both of them.”

Could you give us an idea on how does it relates to the comments under your article at the link about “cranky people with enough time on their hands to attend public hearings.’?

In the next 3 paragraphs I copy my last post under said link:

Please take a good look at the EWPC post The New California Capitalist Model to Initiate the Transformation of the Global Power Industry, where I used two of the above posts in the following:”

Kate Rowland has set a challenge in her Intelligent Utility article "Smart meter reflux continues" of August 16, 2010, which I respond to below. The challenge is based on a quote made by Peter Darbee, CEO and president of PG&E Corporation, which says:

“As we go forward, I think the stakes are very great because once again, California is in the position to serve as the model for the rest of the United States when the United States has said it’s not ready to move forward. And the challenge that we have is, are we going to be a good model, or a bad model, or an indifferent model”

In particular, do you see Gartner’s “… energy provisioning transformation” as the end of a “…bad model” of retail monopolies, as those “Intermediates” become “new players” set “…by a Confluence of Policies and Market Forces” that should compete among themselves?

Merry Christmas,

José Antonio

¿Pondremos la Educación y/o la Electricidad en el Núcleo o en el Contexto de la Estrategia Nacional de Desarrollo?

Estimada o estimado líder,

Muy cortésmente someto a consideración el concepto innovador del Núcleo para introducirlo en la Estrategia Nacional de Desarrollo (END). Todo lo que no es parte del Núcleo de la END es parte de su Contexto.

Geoffrey A. Moore, en su libro publicado en el 2005, Dealing with Darwin, separa todos los procesos de una organización en el Núcleo y el Contexto. En el Núcleo aparecen los procesos que diferencian competitivamente, que evidentemente forman parte también de los procesos de Misión Crítica. Los procesos del Núcleo son los que se convierten en la Marca País y sugiero que se deben corresponder al proceso revolucionario de la Digitalización de la Cultura Humana, con el Internet, la Banda Ancha y los Celulares que lo cambiarán todo, de acuerdo a lo dicho recientemente por el mismo Moore.

Hay procesos de Misión Crítica que no deben fallar que pertenecen al Contexto. No obstante, cualquier inversión adicional más allá de asegurar que un proceso de Misión Critica del Contexto no falle es una pérdida de recursos. Propongo que la definición del Núcleo sea una de las ideas que deben primar en las decisiones de la END.

Ya que el Presupuesto de la Nación para el 2011 está casi decidido, un trabajo importante que podríamos hacer en los próximos cuatro o cinco meses es concentrarnos para extraer recursos del Contexto que no sean de Misión Crítica. La idea sería reubicarlos en un Presupuesto Complementario de medio año, para así poder financiar los procesos del Núcleo de la END.

Defendiendo la estrategia de lograr el 4% para la Educación, ¿estaremos preparados y dispuestos a iniciar una revolución amparada en la Digitalización de la Cultura Humana para hacer que la Educación pase a formar parte del Núcleo de la END? ¿Qué conceptualización hemos realizado para dar ese importante paso?

En caso contrario, será entonces la Educación una actividad de Misión Crítica del Contexto? Lo mismo podemos preguntarnos para el Turismo, la Electricidad y otros sectores identificados en la propuesta de la END elaborada por el Ministerio de Economía, Planificación y Desarrollo, junto con el Consejo Nacional de Reforma del Estado, así como los informes del BID y de Monsieur Attali.

En el caso de la Electricidad, en la que ya se ha hecho todo el esfuerzo de conceptualización, sugiero que no vale la pena que sigamos tratándola como parte del contexto en un mundo dirigido hacia la Digitalización de la Cultura Humana. Para considerarla como candidata al Núcleo, sugiero que miren atentamente la serie de mensajes enviados durante el mes de noviembre del 2010, que le siguen a la nota Una Estrategia de Electricidad para Enfrentar los Retos de Competitividad, Fiscalidad e Institucionalidad y que aparecen abajo, cuyos asuntos son:

Visita de Marranzini al Congreso: ¿Será el Sector Eléctrico el Mejor Candidato para Volvernos Competitivos Internacionalmente?, del día 9;

De la Economía de los Contratos a la Economía de la Confianza, del día 14;

La Economía de la Confianza y la Red Inteligente Conveniente al Consumidor, del día 21; y

Una Mejora al Informe Attali - Un Servicio Eléctrico que la Gente Adore, del día 26.

Felices pascuas y un próspero año 2011,

José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D. - LinkedIn

Sumate 4% Educación

Does the Future Holds a Homogeneous Smart Grid Black Swan?

Megatrends and black swans of the intelligent utility: Halcrow's Mark Gabriel and Siemens Energy's John Wilson talk about the industry's future is an insighful contribution to the power industry, written by Kate Rowland on December 2nd, 2010. Next is my response to her questions: "... let's talk megatrends and black swans. What do you think the future of our industry holds? Do you have any megatrends to add to Gabriel's and Wilson's?"

The modernization of the power industry that is being called the "smart grid" is one of the megatrends that we will witness. However, the current homogeneous end-to-end "smart grid" is bound sooner or later to experience a black swan for the lack of the needed restructuring of the industry into a heterogeneous “smart grid,” which will be friendly to the development of microgrids.

As the ongoing monolithic end-to-end "smart grid" has such a huge complexity, I respond to a LinkedIn group member comment with:

I think we need "tightly-coupled smart grid technologies," but agree with you that they should not be used to "bolster the central system."

Don't you think it may also have the potential to disassemble itself under a Black Swan event? I claim that the microgrid friendly The Electricity Without Price Controls Architecture Framework (EWPC-AF) based "smart grid" is a way to greatly reduce the said complexity.

In the post Why is there so much potential risk associated with the smart grid?, I give three comments that show how the EWPC-AF greatly reduces and better mitigates such a risk. The last comment says:

The smart grid has been made more complex than necessary, as a result of a system-of-systems architecting approach designed to protect most of utility system status quo profits, leaving practically intact their systems. That approach is summarized as: interoperability first and operability second. It can also be though as utility first and customers and society second.

José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, PhD

Creator of the EWPC-AF

eMail Enviado: La Economía de la Confianza y la Red Inteligente Conveniente al Consumidor

Estimada o estimado líder,

Les tengo una primicia sobre el principal problema que está enfrentando el proceso de cambio hacia las redes inteligentes, que se ha iniciado con la instalación de la Infraestructura Avanzada de Medición (AMI por sus siglas en inglés). Se trata del “Consumer Engagement,” que traduzco como el Compromiso del Consumidor.

La primicia aparece en la nota Smart Grid Customers are Looking for Convenience, as Opposed to Engagement, que traduzco como “Los Clientes de la Red Inteligente están Buscando la Conveniencia, como lo Opuesto al Compromiso.” Mientras la Economía de los Contratos se enfoca en el Compromiso del Consumidor, en la Economía de la Confianza lo haría asociado a la Conveniencia del Consumidor.

Del 29 de noviembre al 1 de diciembre próximos, se celebrará por primera vez el METERING, BILLING/CRM CARIBBEAN 2010, en esta ocasión en la ciudad de Santo Domingo. Espero que durante ese evento, en que la CDEEE presentará su estrategia de AMI, se pueda dialogar como sugiere la publicación “La ruta hacia el crecimiento sostenible en la República Dominicana: fiscalidad, competitividad, institucionalidad y electricidad,” elaborada por los expertos del BID sobre el proceso de cambio que involucra la mencionada primicia, que como saben está íntimamente ligada a la nota Una Estrategia de Electricidad para Enfrentar los Retos de Competitividad, Fiscalidad e Institucionalidad.

Saludos muy cordiales,
José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D. - LinkedIn

Smart Grid Customers are Looking for Convenience, as Opposed to Engagement.

Does the Smart Grid Really Need Consumer Engagement? is an insighful article written by Michael Jung that we all have been waiting for. This is a comment I posted under it:

Michael Jung's insightful contribution is that Smart Grid customers are looking for convenience, as opposed to engagement.

Congratulations Michael! You have offered all power industry stakeholders such a great contribution.

Under the minimalist, emergent, and holistic, Electricity Without Price Controls (EWPC) Architecture Framework (EWPC-AF), my response to your question “Does the Smart Grid Really Need Consumer Engagement?” can be found in the June 2010 EWPC post Forget the Customer Engagement Debate; Think Risk Taking Suppliers.

I ask Stephen to confirm that his support for customer engagement is based retailers’ business models that are restricted by the present regulations, after looking at the last paragraph of my post that says:

To enable the development of risk taking business model innovations, I added that what is needed is an architecture competition “Under the EWPC-AF, [where] competing Second Generation Retailers (2GRs) go through Geoffrey Moore’s Technology Adoption Life Cycle, by trying to Cross the Chasm (not easy) and then go through The Tornado to get to Main Street."

José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, PhD
Creatorof the EWPC-AF