viernes, diciembre 22, 2006

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 16

Reference: Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 15

Part 2 of 2.

Len - 1.12.06 – On Independent Market for Every Utility Customer Part 2 - Market Operation

The Market Manager uses a public tender process to add to this baseload contract supply as load increases within their market territory. Ideally they never get themselves into a position of having to pay for more production than customers purchase, but in the event that happens they are still responsible for paying the contract, so must try to re-sell the excess into other neighboring markets. Failing that, the Market Manager must add a levy onto all market transactions to collect the amount necessary to cover the shortfall amount owed the provider above the amount collected by sales…
Vanderhorst-Silverio: After reading the article suggested and its follow up, I find that after looking closely IMEUC does not corresponds to the new integral reform paradigm. IMEUC is based on mechanistic thinking about fundamental electricity economics, as can be found under the heading “Metrics” a statement that says: “[E]very consumer of utilities will benefit from a system such as this in three ways: first…every entity at every stage in the supply chain will be constrained to making their own good investment and operating decisions or be out-competed by a more efficient operator.”

As the result of efficiency on every stage of the supply chain, any competent electric power system planner would see a repetition of the fault found in the deregulation experiments of the last decade: the system is also fractured. Hence IMEUC does not lead to the maximum value expected by society as is EWPC where the system architecture is modularized at the proper interfaces on the value chain. For example, retail marketing is an essential service for the development of the resources of the demand side that is disintegrated in the IMEUC. A fault on market architecture is evident on IMEUC that becomes a barrier to emerging retail marketing business model innovations under competition.

It was to the innovation concept that Mr. Wimberly responded to my conclusion that “instead of Utilities Enterprise Solutions, a Retailers Enterprise Solutions arrives, which will make much more business for IT suppliers than expected under the Continuity Scenario. The main reason is that current business models are at the end of there useful life, while new technology is available to be transformed into competing innovative business models, leading to true deregulation of electric markets.”

While under EWPC obsolescence risk of customer interfaces are taken by retail marketers, under IMEUC monopoly regime the bets of the Market Manager on the customer interface (including metering) are transferred to the rate payers. As customers needs evolve, retail competition should be centered on business model innovations for the different market segments. One size fit all system is also big bet.

In addition, under IMEUC the Market Manager remains as an intermediary for base load generation based on very risky forecasting. Forecasting great weaknesses that leads to playing with fire have already been delved at length earlier on under this article. The resulting market design is no robust enough, leading to either excessive costs of over-capacity or under-capacity by missing proper whole system long run risk management. A market design error has been made, as an improper market signal may lead to large levies imposed on customers when there is a large forecasting error.

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 15

Reference: Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 14

In addition to the comments under this article, please find further comments on a generative dialogue about Independent Market for Every Utility Customer (IMEUC) and Electricity Without Price Controls (EWPC).

Part 1 of 2.

Jose Antonio – 11.21.06 – on AMI Services Solutions for Alberta's Deregulated Market:


Deregulation on a piecemeal basis leads to the outcome you are pointing out. Transmission and distribution is fractured; the customer interface is fractured; the value chain is fractured. I suggest that ADOE (and other energy departments) retain a consultant for advice on electricity without price control (EWPC).

The result should be a robust market, where retailers business design innovation (with AMI) should develop the resources on the demand side (with water and gas as well). Reintegration of T&D should assure short run (price elasticity demand response) and long run (boom-bust mitigation) risk managements, with a different standard market structure and design. In simple terms, the result should be the End-State of the Electricity Industry.

The benefits of AMI in the new integral-reform-paradigm will be larger than in the fractured-high/volatility-paradigm, as growth and development towards the new economy will result from real creative destruction.

Energy departments worldwide should look closely to the article issues in the making. As electricity deregulation is a very complex subject matter, debate will prove insufficient. There is a need for a generative dialogue that will help see the presence of the emergent solution. I strongly believe EWPC is the way out of those issues.

Len – 11.22.06 – on AMI Services Solutions for Alberta's Deregulated Market:


Agree with Jose generally, though I think your recommendations don't quite go far enough. Given the meter communications infrastructure you propose, your final "Benefits" graph misses entirely the largest potential benefit by far, that of providing genuine real-time pricing and intelligent interaction with the markets from every customer's meter. It would provide a large block of added benefits at only a very low incremental cost.

Len - 1.12.06 – On Independent Market for Every Utility Customer Part 2 - Market Operation



The most basic operation of the market is to:

· Resell to customers the electricity or natural gas produced by large baseload suppliers under very long-term fixed price contracts negotiated by the Market Manager entity based on their projections of future demand.

· Provide means for merchant generators of all sizes to contract with customer load in excess of this baseload to provide additional power in excess of the baseload.

Continued on next post…

jueves, diciembre 21, 2006

Síntesis: Jugando con Fuego y con el Colapso Parte 2 Grupo 0

Referencia: Síntesis: Jugando con Fuego y con el Colapso

Feliz Navidad a todos los Amigos del GMH y demás lectores,

Ayer, el Editorial El Día: El País Eléctrico trajo un mensaje que refleja el poco avance en la solución de la crisis del sector eléctrico en la opinión pública, pero esperando una solución para el próximo año. La opinión pública merece conocer el progreso acontecido en esta Bitácora Digital y en esta segunda parte aparece cada vez más clara y contundente la tercera vía que nos sacará del debate hacia el diálogo generativo. Seguimos jugando con fuego y las cosas están muy calientes en esta entrega de la primera hasta la última nota.

Por la íntima relación con el proceso de colapso que vivimos en la economía dominicana, sigo concentrando mi atención en un artículo muy oportuno e interesante, que aparenta ser excesivamente leído (7,458 veces en menos de 6 días), sobre los riesgos de precio y suministro en la crisis emergente de gas natural. Aunque insisto en poner cuidadosa atención al artículo Playing with Fire – The 10 Tcf/year Supply Gap -- Part I, de Andrew Weissman, Editor-in-Chief & Publisher, EnergyBusinessWatch.com, y muy especialmente a los 44 comentarios colocados ya al respecto, esta es una breve e incompleta síntesis de la segunda parte a este momento del dialogo generativo que he impulsado:

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 6

En respuesta a la propuesta de Arvid Hallén de realizar una expansión a base de energía nuclear para resolver la crisis del gas natural, le expliqué la existencia de la tercera vía emergente diferente aquí de los modelos de CDEEE y de Capitalización. Le hice una pregunta para confirmar su modelo mental.

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 7

Defendí las grandes oportunidades del desarrollo de los recursos del lado de la demanda basándome en informaciones del Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI).

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 8

Len sugiere aprovechar las economías de alcance de otros servicios públicos para expandir la ESCP. Digo que sería los servicios públicos sin control de precios – SPSCP. El agua aquí y en otras partes es un serio problema emergente que el GMH tiene en su mira. Explico que la ESCP no es una solución pura de mercado como sugiere Len: T&D y la operación del sistema seguirán siendo monopolios y deberán satisfacer el cuarto criterio de Schweppe.

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 9

Identifico que el modelo mental de Arvid es de la industrial verticalmente integrada. Explico que esa industria - como la CDEEE - es cada vez más ineficiente, pero que la liberación defectuosa de los mercados – como la capitalización - es mucho más ineficiente para la mayoría de los clientes. Adelanto serios problemas en la liberación anunciada de los mercados de Europa en el 2007.

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 10

Respondo a comentarios calientes del Prof. Banks, quien dice saber demasiado y tener buena memoria. Lo cito y le doy la oportunidad para reconocer el aporte de Schweppe.

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 11

Respondo otra solicitud de Arvid y lo oriento sobre como poner al día con la tercera vía.

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 12

Respondo otros comentarios calientes del Prof. Banks quien insiste en una opinión fija. Le cito de nuevo sus propias expresiones y le explico como los ingenieros de la industria eléctrica administran el riesgo – uno de sus fuertes a nivel externo a la industria – y muestro como la respuesta de la demanda es la clave para hacerlo en el modelo emergente de la industria eléctrica. Agrego los comentarios muy favorables de Jamie Wimberly el CEO de Distributed Energy Financial Group al esfuerzo que he venido realizando sobre la solución emergente.

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 13

Len reitera que tenemos diferencias sobre la solución emergente; el cree que no se necesitan detallistas. Le explico las razones institucionales que entiendo justifican a los detallistas.

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 14

Ultima, pero la más caliente de todas. Una corte de Estados Unidos abre la puerta para la invalidez de los contratos de la industria eléctrica y el posible pago de grandes multas. Esta noticia debe ser la clave para una reforma con visión de futuro de la industria eléctrica. Hagamos que exista un país eléctrico y esa sea su marca-país.

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 14

Reference: Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 13

Historical news on deregulation scams: "Court Says U.S. Oversight of Power Industry Was Lax," by DAVID CAY JOHNSTON, The New York Times, December 20, 2006.

"A federal appeals court yesterday called into question the government’s efforts to change the power industry into a more competitive business, ruling that national energy officials abdicated their responsibility to ensure fair electricity markets."

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 13

Reference: Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 12

This is my most response to Len Gould - see his comment below

Len,

My opinion about having a middleman - the retailers under competition - between the generators and the customers to replace two middlemen - the regulator and the distributor under monopoly - is related to long run risk management for the development of the resources of the demand side. I just don't see yet the institutional arrangement to avoid the middleman. Rate of return regulation or performance based rates are avoided for the commercial competitive activities. Instead, retailers operate under prudential regulation / similar to the financial industry - to protect the public. Retailers also perform physical risk management on the demand side.

Len's comment

Jamie Wimberly's comment, quoted by Jose Antonio

"In fact, many utilities also are moving in that direction and attempting to more tightly integrate their systems, platforms and practices. Technology such as AMI is allowing for this progress in a way that simply did not exist five years ago"

simply indicates how poorly Mr Wimberly understands the concept I, and to a lesser extend Jose Antonio, advocate. Anyone with my experience in IT hardware and software would know that the ideal deregulated system which I advocate has been easily achievable and economical for at least the past 20 years, if fact ever since the development of the economical embedded digital computer. (How old is the digital wristwatch, the industrial barcode printer, portable barcode scanner, etc.? All these systems use esentially the same technology with similar economics. We were buying smart communications-capable thermal barcode printers and installing them in washdown industrial environments in the mid 1980's). We and many others were also connecting multiple very large databases all across Canada since 1990.

There is currently simply no technological or economic barrier to implermenting the smart metering infrastructure I advocate.

And Fred. I agree with you that the system cannot be fully implemented safely as long as many areas are served by only a few monopolistic generation entities. But I ask you, regarding your hate for "deregulation" and "energy free markets", how much of that is the result only of the experience of Sweden, where local prices were held artificially low because the generating companies were arbitrarily barred by law from seeking markets in other countries where electricity was more valuable? I grant that you may have a case, but I think it may not be an example which applies broadly to economics of electricity marketing outside of Sweden. I am convinced that the marketing model I advocate could safely be applied to most distribution regions in North America with only minor re-structuring of generation, esp. where the ISO - RTO model for transmission and market operation has been adopted, a significant proportion.

And given that the meters I advocate would inherintly include a connection for the customer's local CHP generation to tie in, and a communication pathway for the ISO to broadcast requests for their startup in urget peak situation (simply by offering a high enough price), I think it shouldn't take too long for a significant proportion of total generation to be provided by eg. small CHP generating units "topping the energy quality" of most natural gas now burned for heating fuel, which would then be able to keep the large generators honest.

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 12

Reference: Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 11

Prof. Banks,

Everybody needs to agree with that you know what happen in Sweden: it is a scam in which the government makes the most. You are a brilliant man with fixed opinion that got everything right, except some humble engineering things (about physical electric power risk management for example) as you mentioned last year – “I don't know as much of the engineering as I should and could know…” (see my post of yesterday).

Prof. Banks - 10.4.05 – on Electric and Gas Deregulation: Not-So-Cold Cases:


… in my journeys I never miss a chance to emphasize that deregulation increases uncertainty, and according to mainstream economic theory, uncertainty leads to a decline in physical investment.

In addition, where Europe is concerned, I happen to know that with both electricity and gas, the decision makers of the EU once entertained the thought that they could make deregulation work by strong-arm methods, by which I mean constructing additional pipelines (and power lines) for billions of dollars, and thereby obtaining what DeVany and Wall called “connected networks”. Personally, I prefer seeing this money going into high-quality health care and personal security, because as far as I can tell almost everyone who wants to buy gas and electricity has access to it, even though they may have to buy it from regulated monopolists.

The fact that the theory supporting natural gas and electricity deregulation is internally inconsistent, blatantly unrelated to reality, grossly incomplete, and to a certain extent amateurish, is not likely to keep this particular wolf away from the door.
Prof. Banks – 6.28.05 – On Econimic Theory and Some Disobliging Aspects of the Swedish Deregulation Experience:


The problem is not the theory, but the people using it.

The most valuable risk management tools in the electric market are still long term contracts in a regulated or deregulated environment.
Vanderhorst-Silverio – 11.3.05 - On An Alternative Business Case for Demand Response:


The business case of Demand Response (DR) is enhanced under free markets, innovation, and probabilistic (risk) mindsets. DR is poised to be the demand side risk management tool to complement the traditional "LOLP" supply side risk management tool. There are two sides on the DR coin. On one side, system crashes are mitigated by a least cost mix of supply and demand risk management tools that may be applied in time and space. On the other, DR is the key to the segmentation of customers supply security (a kind of insurance). Because of its fine grain nature, DR can help mitigate delays (intended or not) of lumpy investments in generation, transmission, and distribution.
Vanderhorst-Silverio: As can be seen, with the development of the resources on the demand side there is no need to develop “connected networks.” The decline of physical investments, the increase in uncertainty, etc. are certainly about the people using it, but also to a large extend a problem with the theory. The old vertical integrated utility does its risk management physically by investing in reserves. Schweppe disclosed how the new vertical integrated utility could develop a market with demand response to decrease uncertainty. Vanderhorst-Silverio envisions the development of the resources of the demand side by way of a suggesting a third way that promises lower costs and/or enabling higher value from electricity to the customers, instead of lower prices, but open to change his opinion to make electricity without price controls an emergent reality in a public generative dialogue.

There was one way for one person to know too much and get stuck in debates: learning from the past. There is another way to learn: several people learning from the emergent future in a generative dialogue. The electric power industry is being exposed to new realities that were thought out by late Prof. Fred Charles Schweppe in the decade 1978-1988. That research he led is only recently being flesh out in what is a creative destruction – not tinkering. Jamie Wimberly DEFG CEO, in synchronicity with my comments in support to the emerging power sector reform paradigm revolution, said the following in a sharp closure of his article The Future Utility Customer Service Model:


Thank you to Dr. Vanderhorst-Silverio for his interesting comments and citations. We also agree that a systemic approach is required to envisioning the future. In fact, many utilities also are moving in that direction and attempting to more tightly integrate their systems, platforms and practices. Technology such as AMI is allowing for this progress in a way that simply did not exist five years ago.

At my firm, the Distributed Energy Financial Group LLC, we believe the changing utility customer service model is simply one manifestation of a technological revolution akin to the industrial revolution that promises much more value creation over time. Building off of the advances in information technology and network management begun decades ago, those advances are now being incorporated into complex systems and the management of assets that form the bedrock of any economy, namely, energy, transportation, water, telecommunications, etc. Greater levels of efficiency and productivity are leading to new product and service generation.

And what do customers want? Most customers are not buying “alternative” or “green,” but are more interested in cheap, reliable energy sources. In fact, I would argue that they are not even buying energy per se, but rather comfort, convenience, light, entertainment, mobility, etc. Greater levels of efficiency allowing for greater levels of consumption of what people desire have the virtuous impact of being “cleaner and greener.” One must be careful to not confuse cause and effect.

Jamie

Jamie Wimberly DEFG CEO

miércoles, diciembre 20, 2006

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 11

Reference: Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 10

Hi Arvid,

I suggest that you read the whole thing since it is a complex subject. That is why I said go as deep as possible. However, if you only want to look superficially, search for "Electricity WPC," "EWPC," and "electricity without price controls."

The third way is only in the article on the "future..." Above is another explanation on the historical notes. They use deregulation coming from "most of the other literature..." and the result was playing with fire...

Instead of playing with fire, it is better to develop simulation scenarios and to run system dynamics applied to water, gas and electricity – in a sense play with energy dynamics.

Arvid's comments,

José Antonio,

I will look into your articles about the, shall we call it, "third way"? ;)

And I note that we both agree that the old monopolies were better than the current system of deregulation. Concerning the EU pushed power and gas deregulation I have a rule; if they say something in Bruxelles, do the opposite.

( Spirits and liquor deregulation excluded ;) )

By the way, it's funny that no matter what the article we comment is about, we end up discussing power deregulation.

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 10

Today Prof. Banks made some comments see below.

Response to Prof. Banks:

Prof. Banks -12.20.06 - On this article: “I had intended to drop out of the deregulation discussion for a very good reason: I know too much about it, and where this subject is concerned my memory is very good.

Prof. Banks - 12.24.05 - On A Few More Unfriendly Comments on Electric Deregulation. “I'm afraid however, that I cannot tell Jose Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio exactly what he wants to know, because everything considered, my knowledge of this subject is relatively limited. For instance, I don't know as much of the engineering as I should and could know. What I do know, however, is the academic economics, and more important I know when people who know the economics as well as I do, or better, have decided to depart from the truth because it pays them to do so. And when I say "pays" I'm talking about real money, and not cigar store coupons or feelings of relief.

Prof. Banks -12.20.06 - On this article: “… the late Fred Schweppe - a brilliant man who also got everything wrong… he had made the mistake of reading the elementary economics books, and unfortunately concluded that the people who wrote them mostly knew what they were talking about, which they might or might not, but usually not in those few paragraphs where they discuss electric/gas deregulation - where the emphasis here should be on 'few'.”

1988 - On the book Spot Pricing of Electricity: On page 111, introducing Chapter 5 “A Possible Future Deregulation,” it can be read that: “This chapter only presents a set of basic ideas; it does not analyze their impacts because such analyses have not yet been done. Since the advantages and disadvantages have not been quantified, we are not advocating deregulation (i.e. we do not know whether there is “a lady or a tiger” behind the door).” Fred Schweppe died before the book was published. If Prof. Banks opinion is correct, then Prof. Schweppe changed his opinion.

1988 - On the book Spot Pricing of Electricity: On page 126, under Historical Notes and References – Chapter 5, “The deregulation concept of this chapter is based on a supply and demand marketplace. Most of the other deregulation literature is oriented only to the supply side i.e., to deregulating generation without altering the way users buy electricity. We believe that deregulation which considerers only the supply side of the supply-demand equation is very dangerous and could have very negative results… A second major difference between this chapter and most of the rest of the deregulation literature lies in our concern that the economics and physical security of power systems not be destroyed or compromised.”

Prof. Banks - 12.20.06 - On this article: “Unless I am mistaken, Jose is suggesting that there is something beautiful for deregulation scholars…”

Vanderhorst-Silverio: Only one dead scholar; the late Fred C. Schweppe.

Prof. Banks comment

I had intended to drop out of the deregulation discussion for a very good reason: I know too much about it, and where this subject is concerned my memory is very good.

I was at the NATO sponsored meeting in Portugal where a collection of cranks and fly-by-nights from both the US and Europe came to the conclusion that electric deregulation was the way to go, which was the main reason that they had been invited. The stars of that conference were Professor (of physics) Arthur Rosenfeld of the University of California (Berkeley), who got EVERYTHING wrong, and the late Fred Schweppe - a brilliant man who also got everything wrong. Why was this? In the case of Rosenfeld he thought - as I thought at the time - that any physicist probably knew more about electric deregulation than any economist, which may or may not be correct, but as I discovered a few years later when I climbed up on my anti-deregulation soapbox, is definitely not true where yours truly and a few others are concerned..

As for Dr Schweppe (from the electronics lab at MIT), he had made the mistake of reading the elementary economics books, and unfortunately concluded that the people who wrote them mostly knew what they were talking about, which they might or might not, but usually not in those few paragraphs where they discuss electric/gas deregulation - where the emphasis here should be on 'few'.

All of this took place about 20 years ago, and is no longer relevant, because now we see how the deregulation scam has turned out: it has failed, is failing or will fail just about everywhere. Sweden is one of the countries which the deregulation booster club designated a deregulation role model, and the last time I looked the consumer price of electricity had increased 70% since deregulation was initiated. The thing to remember here is that deregulation was sold to the voters in this country on the basis of efficiency (and not equity). The point was that the price to consumers was to fall, and even though there might be a few losers, most households would be winners. Instead the price has not only increased for households, but also for the energy intensive industries - which is very very bad news in a country where borders have unfortunately been opened to an absurd extent. I can also mention that in the case of France, deregulation would likely favor the good citizens of Paris while increasing the miseries of about half of the remaining country.

Unless I am mistaken, Jose is suggesting that there is something beautiful for deregulation scholars as well as the deregulation booster club in the published work of X, Y, Z...whoever. Assuming that I ever teach a course in economics again where deregulation is a main topic, any student who mentions even en-passant any of this literature during my lectures becomes a candidate for a failing grade. I don't have to mention I hope what happens to any scholar or pseudo-scholar appearing in a seminar room at this university with a deregulation song-and-dance. As I explained to Prof David Newbery of Cambridge University, he has received his warning that clown time is over, and from now on it's going to be real business.

Editorial El Día: El País Eléctrico

Editorial del 20 de diciembre de 2006.


En términos prácticos, por lo que significa la generación y venta de electricidad verdaderamente servida, no existe un país eléctrico. O sea, no somos un país con autoridades preocupadas por el desarrollo, ya que la falta de energía cierra todos los caminos del desarrollo y la competitividad.

Todo luce que el año, en términos energéticos, va a terminar como empezó. Sin grandes avances para resolver el problema de la generación suficiente para suplir la demanda nacional.

No hay mejor indicio que la situación que vivimos por la renegociación de los contratos eléctricos. Las partes hablan de “sostenibilidad del sector eléctrico”, plantean la necesidad de una “estabilidad en el mercado” y quieren “beneficios reales para el sector de distribución”.

Además, plantean el respeto que debe mantenerse ante cualquier iniciativa de negociación entre el sector privado y el Estado, el cual demandan que se haga “con apego a la ley y a los acuerdos internacionales” asumidos por el país.

El alegato de las autoridades es que ninguna de las empresas que operan bajo el Acuerdo de Madrid ha cumplido con lo estipulado en los contratos de compra y venta de energía. Y como prueba al canto hicieron público un informe que detalla la cantidad de megavatios que contrataron y los que efectivamente suministran. Hay en todas las empresas –EGE-Itabo, Dominican Power Partner, EGE-Haina– un déficit en perjuicio del Estado y los clientes finales, que reciben apagones constantes fruto del déficit de origen.

Se trata de un problema eterno, que, desafortunadamente, no tendrá solución en diciembre de 2006. De nuevo nos esperanzamos y abrazamos a una solución. Por delante tenemos, esperanzadoramente, los 365 días de un nuevo año.

martes, diciembre 19, 2006

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 9

Reference: Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 8

Arvid, thanks for your humble response about the mental model related to the wikepedia quote about EDF Finances. It is clear from your response that it is a vertical integration controlled market mental model. As you can infer from my writing something else is emerging to solve the efficiency of electric power markets.

Uncertainty is a very complex issue. I accept that nuclear power could be part of any scenario, but it should compete with other technologies. Energy efficiency should be in all scenarios – as a predetermined element. Market rules should eliminate the barriers to the resources of the demand side to allow for the full competitive development of energy efficiency, demand response, energy storage, distributed generation, etc.

Electric power monopolies - vertical integration – have become increasingly inefficient since the 70s. Physical risk management on vertical integration was done with supply side - generation and transmission reserves for system coordination. The emerging market changes iron system coordination to bits system coordination, as information and control transaction costs that were prohibitive years ago are getting cheaper and cheaper as time goes on.

Deregulation was sold by people that apparently didn't know about electricity (maybe knew a lot) but knew a lot about making money. The “decade old debate” was about vertical integration versus a flawed reform paradigm that is more inefficient than vertical integration for the majority of the customers. Please read about electricity without price controls starting with The Future Utility Customer Service Model to understand the third way. Go as deep as possible into the links until you feel satified.

The European Union agreed to liberalize electricity and gas for all customers on July 1st, 2007. France, Germany, and Spain are being pressured to unbundled retail and other changes. However, the problem is that the market design and architecture is the flawed one. The third way was not considered at all. Unbundling and other changes, although required, are insufficient to develop a true competitive market.

Regards,

José Antonio

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 8

Refeence: Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 7

Hi to all of you, as the second phase of the generative dialogue is developing around nuclear energy and the emerging market design and architecture.

If I understand correctly, Len is suggesting extending EWPC to Utilities Without Price Controls (UWPC). Both water and gas end-user needs seem to be fine for such extension. That is a good suggestion for the generative dialogue. That is in synchronicity with Jamie Wimberly’s article The Future Utility Customer Service Model closure, in which he endorses systemic approach and the revolution away from the continuity scenario.

The water suggestion reminds me that central power stations extension development is a large user of water, leading to the important problem of the limits of water ecosystems services; namely cooling water requirements of power stations. According to the source Water requirements of nuclear power stations are 20 to 83 per cent more than for other power stations. Water ecosystem services are an issue that may impose a growth limit to power system development.

Keeping for the moment on EWPC market design and architecture, I like to add to Len’s impression that I am not sure what he means by “a pure market electricity strategy such as EWPC.” EWPC is a combination – the third way missing in the decade old debate - of a controlled market and a free market.”

Transmission tightly integrated with distribution and system planning, operation and control involve a controlled, monopoly, market which is different from open transmission access controlled by RTOs and “native” loads. Generation and retail marketing belong to a non-real time free market, so it is ["not" is replaced by "a"] straightforward market extension to other utilities. Generation monopolies are not advised and should compete with the demand side, where CANDU technology can compete freely with other technologies on the short and long run.

The interface between long run system adequacy and short run smooth real-time operation and control of a power system is based on demand side and supply side unit commitments from retailers and generators. That is needed to ensure that Fred Schweppe’s engineering criteria is met. Water and gas systems requirements will not interfere with power system operation and control, leading to the potential and sound design feasibility of Len’s suggestion on the economies of scope of UWPC, as the engineering criteria of gas and water systems don’t interfere either.

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 7

Reference: Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 6

Len and Paul: the supply oriented, vertical integration, central station, mechanistic thinking, continuity paradigm is just one scenario. The 28 billion euros "is far from being sufficient." The surcharge depends on what it costs consumers the electricity, no just what the electricity bill amounts to. The difference is customer's outage costs, which rise as end use devices become sophisticated.

Under mechanistic thinking Andy’s article infers the need of forecasting. Under systemic thinking Forrester’s explains why forecasting is a losing game. Instead of forecasting, the use of scenarios comes to the fore, together with what I suggest to call Energy Dynamics. Forrester wrote about Industrial Dynamics, and John D. Sterman wrote Business Dynamics.

Decision making under scenarios is centered on intelligent conversations and finding flaws on mental models to find decisions which are robust under every scenario. Those are the predetermined elements.

I strongly believe, Energy Efficiency (EE) and Demand Response (DR) are predetermined elements which give EWPC an edge. To develop the resources on the demand side in EWPC, the old mental model of cherry picking, as Andy suggests in “Improved energy efficiency, particularly in the commercial sector, is the quickest and most cost effective way to begin closing the energy supply gap in a meaningful way in a short period of time” should change. As I posted on April 12, 2006, under the article What a surprise: Prices move both ways this is what Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) had said then:


--- Energy efficiency (EE) and demand response (DR) can be cost-effective alternatives to adding new capacity
--- Programmatic approaches to EE and DR have been successful, but have only “scratched-the-surface” of what’s possible
--- Huge opportunity to utilize technology, innovation, and markets to drive EE, DR, and overall electricity utilization

Such an approach, based on simulations with Energy Dynamics and scenario building, will allow the development of a trusted market design and architecture where long run and short run risk management is under control. EWPC is one healthy candidate for the approach.

In “Poised for change: hopeful signs for the power industry (see Time to Innovate…),” Charles W. Gellings, vice president of innovation at the EPRI, adds that:


Assumption: The end-use efficiency of energy utilization has stagnated.

Fact: The U.S. is improving its end-use energy efficiency at a rate of about 1 percent per year. However, there is a potential for reducing the consumption of electricity by between 24 and 44 percent — if all existing technologies and those under development were deployed.

Going for a nuclear silver bullet strategy, without considering the emerging market reform paradigm, is playing with fire.

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 6

Reference: Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 5

Hi Arvid,

"It is Time To Innovate - Energy Utilities Face Unprecedented Challenge, Opportunity. A new paradigm of electric power is emerging which will replace vertical integration and under either ("Tough Times" or "Rising Expectations") very plausible “non-continuity” scenario, will allow a large market share of distributed resources, as explained under the article The Future Utility Customer Service Model.

Notice please that a third way was missed in the decade old debate, which I consider to be electricity without price controls (EWPC). Notice also that under systemic thinking we should be changing from debate to a generative dialogue to answer the question posed by Andy “And perhaps most critically, how can we instill the sense of urgency needed for a comprehensive energy strategy to be put in place?” A lot of uncertainty will not allow imposing a highly risky silver bullet anymore.

Given a “non-continuity” – systemic thinking - expansion scenario, to be simulated using Energy Dynamics against the nuclear silver bullet – mechanistic thinking - expansion “continuity” scenario, please describe the mental model behind the proposal explaining the following about EDF Finances (Source Wikipedia).

For a long time, EDF suffered from very low profits for a group benefiting from such monopoly, especially since in the weakness of its results on the domestic market, were added the poor performances of its foreign subsidiaries. Nevertheless, its balance sheet is very fragile, because of its international development, of its tariff policy in France and rapid deterioration of its profitability.

From 2001 till 2003, EDF was forced to reduce its equity capital due to untoward deviations of conversion in South America and write-down of its assets in Germany, Italy and in Brazil for a total of €6.4 billion total. However, according to the report of the Roulet Commission, international development, although costly, must be followed, because if EDF spent €15 billion euro on acquisitions, its rivals would spend €70 billion. The commission recommends a European strategy, an international presence, albeit focussed, and a larger drive to supply gas.

The most significant problem (in May, 2004) was the rocking of the balance sheet between equity capitals of €19 billion and a €24.5 billion debt (November, 2004), for which it is necessary to add:

--- about €30 billion to meet its commitments to retirement of its workers in the electrical and gas industries (retirement at 55 years, favourable pension rates, etc), which will be met over time by the new tax payable tariff by consumers.

--- €6.4 billion for financial commitments in Italy and in Germany, a sum which could come to more than €10 billion, from 2005.

--- and a huge sum to continue establishing reserves to finance the future dismantling of 58 nuclear power stations. A theoretical reserve currently valued at €28 billion was made, but it is far from being sufficient and it is used in fact to a greater extent for international development.

Thanks,

José Antonio (not just José)

domingo, diciembre 17, 2006

Atención al Proceso de Colapso Parte 3

Muchas gracias de nuevo César,

Primero lo esencial. Entendí la explicación de la disciplina y es definitivamente necesaria. Amplié, no obstante, como habrás visto otro empuje positivo en la nota Síntesis: Jugando con Fuego y con el Colapso, en la que concluyo con lo siguiente:

Como deben haber inferido, ustedes, el gobierno y los inversionistas privados e institucionales (BID, FMI y BIRF), en el país seguimos jugando con fuego y llevando el sector eléctrico y la economía al colapso. Los inversionistas en el sector eléctrico necesitan pensar muy bien si les conviene un sector eléctrico decadente en proceso de desintegración y en vías de colapso o si les conviene mejor un sector eléctrico renovado y reintegrado que ofrezca un servicio de alta confiabilidad y calidad y que aproveche al máximo su competitividad frente a terceros países.

Tomaré lo de maestro con mucha humildad y porque en verdad dejé las aulas para seguir enseñando por este medio digital, que no se compara con el intercambio de persona a persona, pero sí es muchísimo más efectivo que los salones de clases prehistóricos para aquel segmento de personas que aprenden leyendo.

Ciertamente mi énfasis ha estado puesto en los aspectos conceptuales que son la base con la que trabaja la administración de negocios. El énfasis lo he puesto en sacar a flote los modelos mentales defectuosos de los que toman decisiones pensando que no son teóricos.

Mirando el bosque de palabras, me encantó tu concepto de la filosofía como "teoría general del desarrollo." Mi muy limitado y tardío interés práctico a una clase de filosofía - teoría general de desarrollo - surgió de un artículo del Dr. Peter Koestenbaum, que se tituló algo como Do you have the will to lead? Me acordé en ese momento de los que José Ramón Bonilla llama temblorosos y quise dejar de ser uno más de ellos.

Luego encontré su libro “Leadership: the inner side of greatness,” que no es más que una compilación-guía de la sabiduría acumulada de la humanidad en un diamante cuyos vértices o estrategias son: visión, realidad, equidad y coraje. Para él la visión es pensar en grande y en lo nuevo; la realidad es no hacerse ilusiones; la ética es proveer servicio; y el coraje es actuar con iniciativa sostenida. El témpano debajo de esas estrategias es inmenso.

Mientras mayor es la intensidad de las estrategias mayor es el área del diamante y la grandeza que uno puede lograr. Lo que hice y sigo haciendo es tratar de poner en práctica esas enseñanzas filosóficas.

Saludos muy cordiales,

José Antonio


From: César Féliz [mailto:cesar.feliz@gmail.com]
Sent: Friday, December 15, 2006 4:58 PM
To: Jose Antonio Vanderhorst
Subject: Fwd: Atención al Proceso de Colapso Parte 2


Apreciado amigo y maestro:

He leído tu respuesta a mis reflexiones y que bautizas con el halago de filósofica (inmerecido talvez). No me cabe duda alguna de tu correcta interpretación a mi reflexión filosófica. Quizás mucho de lo que se ha venido diciendo (ESCP) resulte para muchos lectores demasiado abstracto, pero me parece esta filosofía cimiento imprescindible sin el que sería imposible exponer las reflexiones sobre la ESCP. Iniciar la ESCP con una elemental filosofía, y toda filosofía obliga a mirar las cosas desde arriba, para que la ojeada abarque lo esencial desde el pasado hasta el presente y quizá apunte aurora de futuro. Pido pues excusas, suplico la lectura paciente y benevolente de los párrafos recién concluidos y sigo adelante.

Cuando el número de preguntas y su radicalidad arrollan patentemente la fragilidad recelosa de las respuestas disponibles, quizás sea la hora de acudir a la filosofía. No tanto por afán dogmático de poner pronto remedio al desconcierto sino para utilizar este a favor del pensamiento: hacernos intelectualmente dignos de nuestras perplejidades es la única vía para empezar a superarlas. Pero es que el proyecto mismo de la filosofía no puede desligarse de la cuestión del mercado. De vez en cuando, mi respetado maestro y colega vuelve a plantearse la cuestión de cuál sea el gran tema de la filosofía actual: confieso que sus respuestas me dejan siempre notablemente insatisfecho. Que si el retorno de la religión, que si la crisis de valores, que si los peligros de la técnica, que si el enfrentamiento entre individualismo y comunitarismo...cuestiones todas ellas muy adecuadas para ejercer el talento o para disimular altisonantemente la carencia de él. Sin embargo el tema de la ESCP, que coexiste con todos los anteriores y muchos otros, casi nunca lo oigo mencionar por muchos de nuestros exegetas eléctricos y de otras ramas afines. Por lo visto es algo muy sectorial, demasiado especializado, demasiado funcional y modesto para suscitar la atención de los grandes especuladores de hoy...aunque no lo fuese para muchos tampoco malos de los de ayer, como Schwepps y otros. Incluso, quien te escribe, que llega a definir la filosofía como "teoría general del desarrollo", incurriendo quizá en una exageración pero no en un absurdo. En cualquier caso, mi opinión está más cerca de esa hipérbole que de otras declamaciones que convierten a los filósofos en sacristanes o en auxiliares de laboratorio.

Antes de terminar, quiero manifestarte de tu fino olfato con relación a mis reflexiones, en especial en lo atinente al párrafo de tu respuesta, que dice: "Ahora bien, percibo una amenaza en el escrito que me preocupa y que puede servir para seguir polarizando e impulsando un debate." Supongo que te refieres a la idea subyacente que dejo entrever relativa a la "imposición" del nuevo modelo. Bien sabes de mi vocación democrática, y que la imposición o coacción del modelo no es lo que subyace en mis neuronas, ni es por lo que propugna el nuevo modelo. Sin embargo, quise traer esta posibilidad (imposición coacción) ante la insensatez e intemperancia de los agentes del sector ante el caos y colapso que nos amenazan. Es defícil complacer a todos, aún en la democracia. Si nadie está dispuesto a ceder y concertar con mira a la estabilidad y racionalidad, si todo es una babel, una mascarada y componenda de grupos para beneficiarse ilimitadamente en perjuicio de otros, entonces el sentido común (que talvez es el menos común de los sentidos) nos empujará hacia una lamentable imposición o coacción. ¿provendrá la imposición del gobierno?, es muy probable. ¿Tendrá el gobierno el coraje para hacerlo a sabienda de las implicaciones locales e internacionales?, en verdad no lo sé.


La historia está llena de imposiciones cuando reina el caos o se vislumbra el colapso. Es un hecho, que el poder con los difundidos poderes varios actuan normalizadora y disciplinarmente en el campo social en situaciones de caos y/o colapso.


Ojalá que el resultado no sea un borbotón de sangre, como auguró en vida el poeta Molinaza.

Un abraso

César Féliz

Síntesis: Jugando con Fuego y con el Colapso

Estimados Amigos del GMH y demás lectores,

Por la íntima relación con el proceso de colapso que vivimos en la economía dominicana, este fin de semana concentré mi atención en un artículo muy oportuno e interesante, que aparenta ser excesivamente leído (3,461 veces en menos de 3 días), sobre los riesgos de precio y suministro en la crisis emergente de gas natural. Aunque recomiendo leer cuidadosamente el artículo Playing with Fire – The 10 Tcf/year Supply Gap -- Part I, de Andrew Weissman, Editor-in-Chief & Publisher, EnergyBusinessWatch.com, y los comentarios al respecto, esta es una breve e incompleta síntesis a este momento del dialogo generativo que he impulsado:

Playing With Fire and Collapse

Leí con mucho interés el artículo llegando a la conclusión de que era un caso que pide el empleo de la disciplina Dinámicas de Negocio (Business Dynamics). La disciplina Dinámicas de Negocios es la aplicación a los negocios de la Dinámicas de Sistema, que es la profesión del diseño de sistema social. Esa profesión es joven todavía, porque cuenta con 50 años de existencia.

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 2

Recientemente, el creador de la disciplina Dinámicas de Sistema, el Profesor de MIT, Jay Wright Forrester, ha sido incorporado como miembro del Salón de la Fama de Investigación de Operaciones (OR por sus siglas en inglés) de la International Federation of Operational Research Societies.

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 3

Aprehendí de una entrevista del autor del artículo el “insight” sobre como la Dinámicas de Energía pueden ayudar a reconocer el sentido de urgencia en los procesos de crecimiento y de colapso por el daño que la falta de decisión apropiada ocasiona.

Propuse emplear la Dinamicas de Energía para estudiar los defectos de la liberación de los mercados realizada a bajo costo la ESCP. Quedé abierto a experimentar y afinar la ESCP con la Dinámicas de Energía.

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 4

Agregué un enlace a un pdf de un proyecto en ejecución en Dinámicas de Energía.

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 5

Respondí al Prof. Banks su cuestionamiento a mi aseveración sobre la invalidez de ciertos pronósticos.

Como deben haber inferido, ustedes, el gobierno y los inversionistas privados e institucionales (BID, FMI y BIRF), en el país seguimos jugando con fuego y llevando el sector eléctrico y la economía al colapso. Los inversionistas en el sector eléctrico necesitan pensar muy bien si les conviene un sector eléctrico decadente en proceso de desintegración y en vías de colapso o si les conviene mejor un sector eléctrico renovado y reintegrado que ofrezca un servicio de alta confiabilidad y calidad y que aproveche al máximo su competitividad frente a terceros países.

Con mucho afecto para ustedes y los lectores que se dignaron a leerlo, muy atentamente,

José Antonio

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 5

Reference: Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 4

In response to the comment of Ferdinand Banks that is copied below, this is what I said:

Ferdinand, please take the whole sentence and the context in consideration.

You seem to be right under a mechanistic thinking mental model that doesn’t consider the environment. However, under a systemic thinking mental model, the interdependencies are very important. These are the components playing in the environment: 1) In simple term; 2) the world is undergoing a revolution - transition - from a stable state to hopefully another stable state; 3) In the past stable state –until the oil crisis - forecasting gave us reasonable results; 4) as uncertainty increases during a transition; and 5) forecasting just does not work anymore.

As for the environment you have the paragraph: The attempt to forecast future economic behavior is often taken as the proper and maybe the only important test of an economic model. The ability of a model to forecast future conditions is sometimes described as the gold standard for model evaluation. But seldom in the economic literature is there any claim that a model forecast is better than a naïve forecast of simply extrapolating from the recent past. Actually, I believe that attempts to forecast future conditions is a losing game and has been a diversion that has carried economists away from far more productive work.

The correct interpretation is different and valuable using the correct mental model.

Under a generative dialogue you are different than your opinion. While understanding Imy opinion may be wrong, I think your opinion was wrong. You are, however, a very intelligent man and a valuable member of any generative dialogue. Please keep at it.

Best regards,

José Antonio

This is what Prof. Banks said:

"Forecasting doesn't work any more", you say Jose. Kind of reminds me of what Kenneth Arrow's commanding officer told him during WW2 when Prof Arrow was doing weather forecasting for the US Air Force: 'We know that the forecasts are worthless, but what would be do without them.'

The correct interpretation here is that worthless means different things for different people. If forecasting makes any sense at all, which it does, then it was better that Captain Arrow did it instead of 'Yardbird' Bill.

sábado, diciembre 16, 2006

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 4

Reference: Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 3

Please take a look at Systems Thinking for Sustainability: A Decision-Support Approach for Electrical Utility Executives Addressing Climate Change (416KB pdf), by Andrew Jones (2005), to see an ongoing Energy Dynamics project. I am sure others such efforts are in the making.

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 3

Reference: Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 2

Hi again,

There is more food for thought on the “sense of urgency” as a key issue. Please check on the Interview on Proposed Windfall Profits Tax >>, Report on Business Television on April 28, 2006 on ANDY WEISSMAN'S SPEECHES & WEBCASTS, to understand the “in the process will be a huge amount of damage,” that results from complex interdependencies not being acknowledge with the required sense of urgency. By the way, Andy is underlined in the interview as “In defense of big oil.”

Murray Duffin and Bill Paine info about uncertainty of data also helps the business case for Energy Dynamics development.

System dynamics is the tool to look at growth and collapse processes by understanding system dynamic structure. The emergent EWPC paradigm is oriented in “defense of the customer,” with special emphasis on the opportunities for the development of markets at the Bottom of the Pyramid. Energy Dynamics is the tools to study the flaws of deregulation, without real live costly experiments. I am wide open to test and optimize EWPC with emerging Energy Dynamics simulation experiments.

Playing With Fire and Collapse Part 2

Hi Andrew, Len, Ferdinand and readers,

Please note on the System Dynamics NEWSLETTER, Volume 19 – Number 4, October 2006 that “The creator of the discipline of System Dynamics, Prof. Jay Wright Forrester, has been made a member of the International Federation of Operational Research Societies' OR Hall of Fame.”

In addition, one of the experts on “Energy Dynamics” is Professor Andy Ford, the author of "Modeling the Environment". He developed a system dynamics model for the Western wholesale market of the US. For example (see document):

As noted in a panel discussion on investor behavior at a workshop convened by the California Energy Commission on November 7, 2001, “Exploring Alternative Wholesale Energy Market Structures of California,” Professor Andy Ford remarked as follows:

…when the western market is simulated over a longer time interval, it becomes clear that the Power Authority commitments will eventually lead to a reduction in private sector investment. (“Simulation Scenarios for the Western Electricity Market,” prepared by Professor Andrew Ford, Washington State University, p. 24)…IEP agrees with Professor Ford that the intervention of the CPA, particularly in an owner/operator mode, will tend to drive away much needed private investment in California.
So the development of Energy Dynamics started already. As a further proof, on the same NEWSLETTER, one of Andy Ford student, Allyson Beall, gave “A first-timer’s view” at a “PhD Colloquium,” saying, among other things:

Having had little face to face experience with system dynamics modelers other than my chair Andy Ford, I came to the colloquium having no idea what to expect…Stefan Groesser, modeling innovations in the residential building market, is grappling with the goal of the Swiss government to dramatically reduce residential energy demand. The second session opened with a study by Mathias Bosshardt of technological change in the Swiss car fleet… Kaszem Yaghootkar described his project dealing with the management of the problem of uncertainties in overlapping phases of engineering projects.

In simple term, the world is undergoing a revolution - transition - from a stable state to hopefully another stable state. In the past stable state –until the oil crisis - forecasting gave us reasonable results. However, as uncertainty increases during a transition, forecasting just does not work anymore. The article gives very rich examples of uncertainty of both gas demand and gas supply.

Andrew’s article brings a very important system dynamics element in his first summary article: how to sell the sense for urgency. For example, he identifies important systemic delays that people with mechanistic mental models just don't take into account. Those delays can be dynamically simulated in a complex system model, based on interdependent – systemic – elements to support the sense for urgency. Also, for example, Yaghootkar project seems to be useful for modeling the Alaskan Natural Gas Project.

The interdependencies identified by Andrew are the reason we need to cut across topics on EnergyPulse. The last addition to the generative dialogue was placed under the article The Future Utility Customer Service Model to support the emergent EWPC solution paradigm to power sector flaws.

Regards,

José Antonio

viernes, diciembre 15, 2006

Playing With Fire and Collapse

I posted a comment under the article Playing with Fire – The 10 Tcf/year Supply Gap -- Part I, by Andrew Weissman, Editor-in-Chief & Publisher, EnergyBusinessWatch.com. I think that playing with fire will lead to collapse. This is what I said:

Mr. Weissman,

I read your first article on the emerging gas crisis with great interest. The approach and the information you have presented is very rich indeed.

My interest is compounded as I have been researching and writing for more than 10 years about a current crisis in electricity in the Dominican Republic. I claim to have developed a market architecture and design – electricity without price controls (EWPC) - that solves the electricity restructuring flaws worldwide. Both crisis need to be studied as systemic crisis.

As your “goal is to stimulate further discussion and deeper inquiry into matters of urgent concern,” in line with my suggested generative dialogue on EnergyPulse, I suggest that you have disclosed a case begging the use of Business Dynamics. Business Dynamics is an outgrowth of System Dynamics, which is a "social system design" profession that is about 50 years old, as you can see at the beginning of the System Dynamics NEWSLETTER, Volume 19 – Number 2, June 2006.

The father of system dynamics, and Founding President of the System Dynamic Society, in his plenary address to the International System Dynamics Conference, on July 2003, under the title "Economic Theory for the New Millennium," Jay W. Forrester explained clearly why forecasting is a losing game:

The attempt to forecast future economic behavior is often taken as the proper and maybe the only important test of an economic model. The ability of a model to forecast future conditions is sometimes described as the gold standard for model evaluation. But seldom in the economic literature is there any claim that a model forecast is better than a naïve forecast of simply extrapolating from the recent past. Actually, I believe that attempts to forecast future conditions is a losing game and has been a diversion that has carried economists away from far more productive work.

Among other key elements, Professor Forrester also spoke about how prices develop:

In the model, supply and demand are not balanced by prices alone, as is commonly done in economic models. Inventories, backlogs, and delivery delays are the primary short-term balancing forces. Prices then change as a result of over or under supply of product.

Paraphrasing Mr. Forrester (see Newsletter), we need to "see emerging a stream of powerful, insightful, provocative, and publicly influential books on dynamics of subjects like energy." It could be called "Energy Dynamics."

A sense or urgency to face the worldwide energy crisis and a sense of urgency to practice Energy Dynamics will reinforce each other, creating a virtuous circle. In line with Energy Dynamics, the generative dialogue welcomes your series of articles and especially your goal to help us avoid playing with fire in the future.

Regards,

José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, PhD
Interdependent (Systemic) Consultant on Electricity
Proponent of Electricity Without Price Controls (EWPC)