martes, septiembre 11, 2007

The World Needs to Implement EWPC ASAP

Dear Edward, Len, Jim, Jeff, Ken and other writers, such as Fred, Don, Joseph, Malcolm, and Todd, which have from time to time made recent comments under these fine articles about EWPC. Thank you all for the help to make EWPC better understood, even if you don´t understand it yet.

In his elementary textbook on energy economics, Professor Ferdinand Banks calls all of us (ken is added by myself) as brilliant commentators. I recognize also that all of you are intelligent people, which are probably experts in more than one field of knowledge.

What has emerged as EWPC is the work of many years, which I would say started in 1980, when I learned how to plan an interconnected power systems, under experienced and generous (free of charge) power planning professionals from Puerto Rico. They had gone to Schenectady after a huge mistake of purchasing two oversized generators for their mostly thermal power system. The result of the mistake is that they have been operating those two generators at half load since then to satisfy the reliability criteria.

Officials and regulators of the Puerto Rico Power Electric Authority (PREPA) authorized the investment by thinking intuitively that by purchasing two large base load generators, electricity cost would come down. However, reliability results were that when one of those generators tripped, the whole system collapsed and everybody lost because of the large interruption costs. That occurred several times in the 70s. Leaning at GE ffor the was truly a paradigm shift. The essence of the message is the need for expert professionals to plan the electric system under the architecting imperative of ultraquality, just as nuclear power stations are architected and designed. That is part of a logically true and non-trivial doctrine key for EWPC.

Over the weekend, while researching to satisfy Edward A. Read Jr. request (see EWPC is a True and Non-Trivial Doctrine), I came to the conclusion that I may have been trying to explain a non-trial doctrine to intelligent people. For example, central to the non-trivial subject of power system planning is the intuitive concept of "Lowest cost electricity generation" - that Puertorican had bought - which I though to be a good statement to get many readers on the same page, but apparently didn’t make it. So, in the post Lowest Cost Electricity Generation is Just Intuitive, I have included a small lecture to explain the concept, the reaction by Don Giegler who said “Seems like a pretty close-minded lecture, Jose....” and my logical response to his reaction.

The conclusion applies to Len too. Although he is very intelligent, there is not guarantee that he will understand the paradigm shift of the EWPC doctrine, not matter how well it is explained to him (see what Paul Samuelson said on EWPC is a True and Non-Trivial Doctrine). So I have answered, not 7, but 11, of his 8.31.07 questions about EWPC as you will see below in the next two posts.

By the way, “a good tax,” is the one that elected government should decide, in line with a finite environmental capacity world. If we act with a business as usual (irresponsible) response, we may get to what Jim wrote about Jared Diamond’s “Collapse.” However, his suggestion at the end about finding it difficult not to keep burning coal it will only increase the probability of collapsing. One way to go about such difficult scenario is to implement a reduction of the consumption of energy per capita – while keeping as much as possible the energy service – by developing EWPC ASAP.

Industries in Ohio want to go back to vertical integration, which is a zero sum game. For industry to get lower rates, other customers will get higher rates. No so under EWPC, where price and service differentiation will let every customer find the best service plan, which better fits its requirements, as long as prudential regulations are well design and implemented.

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