A Proposal to Declare the Winners of the IEEE Spectrum Smart Grid 2025 Game

Jose Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio | Apr 2, 2011

        

Twitter update on April 4th, 5:00 PM, Santo Domingo:

@gmh_upsa: RT(That’s a Wrap!) @IEEESpectrum #SmartGrid2025 "FYI... Great work... so far. Let’s keep ‘em coming" -- Jake @iftf http://bit.ly/IFTF02

As the system for the calculation of the Idea Points Accumulated left much to be desired, as shown below, in this proposal the leaders are selected taking into account, first and foremost, the number of Achievements awards received from the Foresight Guides. A second list is available for those that didn’t receive any Achievement award.

In order to correct the great distorting effect on the Idea Points Accumulated by each player, during game execution, an adjustment is made. As the Idea Points Accumulated increased by the power of 2, as the level of interactions between players increased on a given engagement, it diluted the real value of the 20 points added by the Foresight Guides for each “Super-interesting” Card. The Points Adjusted are the result of the square root of the Idea Points Accumulated plus 20 times the Number of “Super-interesting” Cards that the player receive from the Foresight Guides. The Adjusted Points serve as the second priority to select the list of winners.

The reduction in the distortion from the shift to Points Adjusted can be seen in the distribution of the Level reached by the players. In total there were 7 Legends, 2 Beyond Extreme Genius, 11 Genius, 15 Luminous, 33 Brilliant, 51 Inspired and 118 Keen.

As a reference, please consider the tweet: @gmh_upsa: How to Play the @IEEESpectrum #SmartGrid2025 Game http://bit.ly/IFTF01 @iftf #ForesightEngine

#	Player Name	Player #	# of Cards Played	Idea Points Accu-mulated	Super Inter-esting Cards	Points Adjusted	Level	# of Achi-eve-ments	Achievements
1	EWPC-AF_Creator	55	153	2,914,297	2	1,747	Legend	2-5*	Feyman, Heisenberg & 3 more expected
2	secret-engineer	326	132	2,494	4	130	Genius	2	Ted Talk & Heisenberg
3	mathpunk	342	120	752	4	107	Genius	2	MacArthur Genius & Heisenberg
4	Raul V.R.	548	97	166,545,599	2	12,945	Legend	1	Hawking
5	ligtvoet	387	82	1,385,306	0	1,177	Legend	1	MacArthur Genius
6	vaclav	70	82	837,969	1	935	Legend	1	MacArthur Genius
7	AnuKowli	364	153	738,532	0	859	Legend	1	Hawking
8	capt_-stargazer	365	260	224,564	5	574	Legend	1	Heisenberg
9	SD	49	196	69,817	2	304	Beyond Extreme Genious	1	Ted Talk
10	rmadams	362	86	6,370	7	220	Genius	1	Feyman
11	distrib_renew	413	38	12,578	1	132	Genius	1	Hawking
12	WarrenBazil	485	51	87	4	89	Genius	1	Hawking
13	Wahine_Ma	385	66	1,471	2	78	Luminous	1	Feyman
14	jannamark	446	69	921	2	70	Luminous	1	MacArthur Genius
15	thoughtgram	486	84	561	1	44	Luminous	1	Heisenberg
16	Quiningqualia	583	34	75	1	29	Brilliant	1	Feyman
17	John Teeter	657	34	560	0	24	Brilliant	1	Hawking
18	timkostyk	38	42	104	0	10	Inspired	1	Heisenberg

(*) Expecting a Ted Talk award on the EWPC-AF, a Venter award on the EWPC-AF paradigm shift, and an MRF ARC award on the most holistic approach.

yyy

Do the Players in 1st and 2nd Place on the Smart Grid 2025 Game Deserve to be Call Winners? Part I.

Jose Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio | Mar 31, 2011

        

April 4, 2011, Update: a key insight emerged, while elaborating the EWPC post A Proposal to Declare the Winners of the IEEE Spectrum Smart Grid 2025 Game: the 20 points awarded by the Foresight Guides, when they identified a "Super-interesting" Card, lost its value as the points earned by players increased as shown below. That insight shifts the importance to said proposal that addresses the distortion on the Foresight Engine system.

Tomorrow April 1^st, will be two full weeks from the end of IEEE Spectrum Smart Grid 2025 Game, without any update to enable the players and the public learn about the winners. This report is intended to change that, giving additional evidence to help anyone easily respond to the EWPC post Was the EWPC-AF_Creator the All Around Winner of the Smart Grid 2025 Game?

The evidence is in the particular engagement, shown play by play below, in this Part I, and also in Part II . Raul V.R., from Spain, and Greg, from Europe, seem to have avoided the expected plays, in order to get to the first and second position of the Leaderboard, respectively. At least two observations help show if they played a game or not to deserve its leadership:

1. It is important to notice (see below) that they both avoided two very important Cards, played by fiskus, from Melbourne, Australia, just 12 and 13 seconds after the start of the mentioned engagement. It is evident that either the Momentum or the Antagonism Micro-forecasts had the potential to show critical weaknesses of the Positive Imagination Micro-forecast. As can be seen, those weaknesses showed up soon as Raul and Greg interacted, but not on the points they received from the system, that, as you may see, grow near the power of two.
2. It is also important to highlight, that Greg, who only played 20 cards during the 24 hours, did not defend either his initial Micro-forecast, when capt_stargazer started to participate (see Part II  [/script>), by playing the Antagonism Card “Definitely utopian.” Instead, Greg avoids it. In fact, the original Positive imagination is forgotten and continued by Raul V.R in a different direction set by capt_stargazer who, as can be seen, takes control of the engagement, but no the points.

Card Number	Time	Card Followed	Player Name	Type of Card Played	Micro-forecast or idea	Points for player
2730	3/18/2011 0:22	\N	Greg	Positive Imagination	Create an alternative SG (on same network) for individuals and communities producing energy. Possibility to trade with usual grid if needed.	-
2770	3/18/2011 0:34	2730	fiskus	Momentum	A blackmarket in power transmission by maser arises.  'Darksun' technology uses network packet switching algorithms to distribute and hide.	6
2775	3/18/2011 0:35	2770	fiskus	Antagonism	Entrenched utilities react to shut down alternate grid, citing safety concerns. Sunshine rebellion begins.	-
2740	3/18/2011 0:25	2730	Raul V.R.	Investigation	Will it be possible to run a traditional grid with only some part of it converted in smart grid? will this be worthwhile?	124,907,519
2747	3/18/2011 0:27	2740	Greg	Investigation	At the beginning no, hence the trading with usual grid. But as more people (=users and producers at the same time) join it will be.	62,453,759
2763	3/18/2011 0:32	2747	Raul V.R.	Investigation	Then the implementation solution is definitely some test areas? let´s say a few cities in every country, and the spread on? \	31,226,879
2769	3/18/2011 0:34	2763	Greg	Investigation	each city should be an important energy producer, and they should e widespread (geography, climate, activity) to spread usage.	15,613,439
2804	3/18/2011 0:45	2769	Raul V.R.	Adaptation	Every public building should already have FV panels on top, and inject power into the grid, government has to lead the change...	7,806,719
2823	3/18/2011 0:53	2804	Greg	Momentum	And major companies, supermarkets,... as well.	3,903,359
2843	3/18/2011 1:02	2823	Raul V.R.	Adaptation	Right, strong support policies should be given. Problems arise when the electricity boards block the access points to the grid	1,951,679
2860	3/18/2011 1:13	2843	Greg	Adaptation	Maybe not: as EU established as law, the electricity producers can't be providers. Then providers could be interested (by rent or law)	975,839
2867	3/18/2011 1:16	2860	Raul V.R.	Adaptation	Right in theory. In Spain it is the same, but it doesn´t work. The producers have created new companies to still be providers...	487,919
3771	3/18/2011 10:28	2867	Greg	Momentum	Totally true, exactly the same in France. \Could law force providers to rent their network to all producers, in % of their production?	243,959
3778	3/18/2011 10:32	3771	Raul V.R.	Adaptation	I hope we see it by 2025! The energy lobbies are quite strong, even governments are unable to deal with them	121,979
3785	3/18/2011 10:35	3778	Greg	Adaptation	Because we votes for the wrong people! We should chose leaders with population's interest in mind, not increased benefits of their supports!	60,989
3797	3/18/2011 10:43	3785	Raul V.R.	Investigation	It seems to be difficult for the right people to become leaders, how could this be changed? Politicians don´t want clever people around them	30,487
3803	3/18/2011 10:48	3797	Greg	Adaptation	Maybe it's because clever people don't want to become leaders! Too much hassle with almost no perspective of results.	15,243
3824	3/18/2011 10:57	3803	Raul V.R.	Adaptation	I agree. But maybe the comming technologycall challenges will lead to this clever people get involved in politics...maybe to utopian?	7,621

yyy

Do Players in 1st and 2nd Place in Smart Grid 2025 Game Deserve to be Call Winners? Part II

Jose Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio | Mar 31, 2011

        

April 4, 2011, Update: a key insight emerged, while elaborating the EWPC post A Proposal to Declare the Winners of the IEEE Spectrum Smart Grid 2025 Game: the 20 points awarded by the Foresight Guides, when they identified a "Super-interesting" Card, lost its value as the points earned by players increased as shown below. That insight shifts the importance to said proposal that addresses the distortion on the Foresight Engine system.

Tomorrow April 1^st, will be two full weeks from the end of IEEE Spectrum Smart Grid 2025 Game, without any update to enable the players and the public learn about the winners. This report is intended to change that, giving additional evidence to help anyone easily respond to the EWPC post Was the EWPC-AF_Creator the All Around Winner of the Smart Grid 2025 Game?

The evidence is in the particular engagement, shown play by play in Part I and also below in this Part II.  Raul V.R., from Spain, and Greg, from Europe, seem to have avoided the expected plays, in order to get to the first and second position of the Leaderboard, respectively. At least two observations help show if they played a game or not to deserve its leadership:

1. It is important to notice (see Part I ) that they both avoided two very important Cards, played by fiskus, from Melbourne, Australia, just 12 and 13 seconds after the start of the mentioned engagement. It is evident that either the Momentum or the Antagonism Micro-forecasts had the potential to show critical weaknesses of the Positive Imagination Micro-forecast. As can be seen, those weaknesses showed up soon as Raul and Greg interacted, but not on the points they received from the system, that, as you may see, grow near the power of two.
2. It is also important to highlight, that Greg, who only played 20 cards during the 24 hours, did not defend either his initial Micro-forecast, when capt_stargazer started to participate (see below), by playing the Antagonism Card “Definitely utopian.” Instead, Greg avoids it. In fact, the original Positive imagination is forgotten and continued by Raul V.R in a different direction set by capt_stargazer who, as can be seen, takes control of the engagement, but no the points.

Card Number	Time	Card Followed	Player Name	Type of Card Played	Micro-forecast or idea	Points for player
3829	3/18/2011 10:59	3824	capt_stargazer	Antagonism	Definitely utopian.	3,807
3842	3/18/2011 11:07	3829	Raul V.R.	Adaptation	I agree in part. The increasing complexity of future systems could lead to higher standards in political life	1,903
3862	3/18/2011 11:22	3842	capt_stargazer	Antagonism	That assumes correlation between technological sophistication and human governance.  The former, great progress. The latter, less so.	951
3885	3/18/2011 11:35	3862	Raul V.R.	Momentum	I agree. Too technological governance can lead to deshumanize societies	475
3888	3/18/2011 11:37	3885	capt_stargazer	Momentum	Especially if the governance is so complex it must be controlled by AI or semi-automated systems beyond human comprehension.	237
3923	3/18/2011 11:51	3888	rmadams	Adaptation	When governance is described by consistent and completely-described rules, the playing field can be significantly leveled for everyone...	111
3933	3/18/2011 11:56	3923	capt_stargazer	Antagonism	Godel demonstrated the impossibility of such rules.  No rule set can completely describe itself, thereby making total governance impossible.	55
3939	3/18/2011 12:00	3933	rmadams	Adaptation	Fair enough- but the rules themselves can completely describe the governing actions, which is what matters- and what differs from custom...	27
3945	3/18/2011 12:02	3939	capt_stargazer	Adaptation	I see your point.  I am still dubious of strict rule sets.  My experience in policy suggests the more complex, the less they are followed.	13
3956	3/18/2011 12:09	3945	rmadams	Adaptation	You are right, of course, but the advantage of strict rule sets is that they are at least well-understood.  No smoky back-room deals	3
3997	3/18/2011 12:26	3956	capt_stargazer	Adaptation	Agreed.  Would love to seem them if easily created and followed.  Just fear they tend to be neither!	1
3977	3/18/2011 12:18	3945	PonyXpress	Momentum	Have you seen how the world within The World of Warcraft is configured? Talk about complicated!! Yet there's gazillion self-opted in players	3
4003	3/18/2011 12:29	3977	capt_stargazer	Adaptation	Good example, but that also emerged incrementally over time, didn't it?  It wasn't designed in one fell swoop.	1
3906	3/18/2011 11:44	3888	Raul V.R.	Momentum	Finally humanity is controlled by a few technological lobbies...	7
3919	3/18/2011 11:49	3906	capt_stargazer	Momentum	Making 2025 look rather similar to today!	3
3922	3/18/2011 11:51	3919	Raul V.R.	Momentum	Right! Humanity destiny is dark... ;). Hope we are miss	1
3835	3/18/2011 11:03	3824	Greg	Adaptation	Or at least \traditional\" politician will intake more of technicians and scientists advice into ccount"	3
3846	3/18/2011 11:09	3835	Raul V.R.	Momentum	Definitely, they will need huge high quality advice; Hope they are aware of it	1
3791	3/18/2011 10:39	3785	Raul V.R.	Momentum	Totally agree: most of governments have very low and short minded people in politics.	7
3795	3/18/2011 10:43	3791	lucknau	Momentum	True. Changing the minds of politicians will probably require reframing the issue as one of energy security and reliability.	3
3802	3/18/2011 10:47	3795	Raul V.R.	Adaptation	I think the point is getting the best people of the private sector becoming interested in politics and society	1

yyy