jueves, septiembre 27, 2007

Conspiracy Theory Against Mr. X

A conspiracy theories against Mr. X being a Nobel Prize candidate is written to provide an ordered a framework to understand the chaotic events that happened or will happen in the Energy Central Network.

Conspiracy Theory Against Mx. X

By José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D.

Systemic Consultant: Electricity

Copyright © 2007 José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio. All rights reserved. No part of this article may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, without written permission from José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio. Please write to javs@ieee.org to contact the author for any kind of engagement.

At the beginning of this month I wrote A Vertical Integration Conspiracy Theory for the US Judiciary, following Eamonn Kelly’s advice that “conspiracy theories can, ironically, provide an ordered framework with which to understand chaotic events.” In what follows the author will use only comments made by the original characters, in order to try to come up with a consistent story that might explain a conspiracy. This is an attempt to place together the pieces of a very complex puzzle and at the same time look at the larger picture.

Writing this under the principle that I am not my opinion, I will develop a hypothetical “Conspiracy Theory Against Mr. X” in an effort to understand the chaotic events that took place and that may continue to take place in EnergyPulse.net and EnergyBlogs.com.

An underlying intention of the conspiracy theory is to send a strong message to investors and Wall Street, that the unstable environment of the industry is about to end, and that financial capital is set to be replaced by production capital, as the industry becomes once again very predictable with the implementation of EWPC.

The characters will be disguised to protect their identities from occasional readers. They are intelligent and important people, which may not understand certain non-trivial constructs.

As the characters that were supposed to confirm that EWPC became the winner of the first phase of competition have become silent, with this conspiracy theory we will be expecting the silence to end and start receiving feedback from the characters themselves. Maybe if the silence continuous, it is just that readers should expect to confirm that the conspiracy took place in reality.

Mr. X is the proponent and creator of the EWPC paradigm, which emerged in the energyPulse.net environment, as it evolved from his earlier 1996 visionary proposal to the Dominican government. He is the enemy of the deregulation and the vertically integrated utilities (VIUs) paradigms.

Mr. M is an old military servant whose reason of being is to be the greatest enemy of deregulation. He is absolutely correct that deregulation is a scam. The scam is produced by operating under the principle economics first, reliability second (E1R2). One of his heroes is Dr. Alfred E. Kahn. It seems he was in favor of the Vertically Integrated paradigm, but recently has kept silent as the EWPC paradigm was emerging. Now that it has emerged it would be nice to learn if he is in favor of the VIUs scams, which led to the BIG California LIE.

Mr. Y is the scientist minded fellow which appointed himself to be an arbiter between EWPC and IMEUC, after Mr. X had shown the Final: IMEUC not a Market Architecture and Design. One of his role model is Einstein.

Mr. G. is the man that never loses. He is a consultant that has been proposing the meter based IMEUC Market, but was never able to characterize it. When confirming the victory of the EWPC paradigm Mr. X wrote: “In response to the suggestion by Mr. Y about simulations, it is shown that there is not a need to look further, as a simulator already exists, and its information’s confirm the EWPC is the winner of the first phase of competition with the VIUs, as IMEUC doesn’t even qualify.”

Still today, Mr. G is denying the process as he seems to be a skeptic. It is important to understand the opinion Mr. Y has of Mr. G, which might explain why he is so stubborn, while being an important and intelligent man:

“It doesn't surprise me AT ALL that you didn't follow the link, you NEVER follow a link, because you are a textbook example of someone suffering from dissociative cognitive dissonance. You won't follow THIS link either, but everyone else will, to be amused along with me at the inside joke. The mark of the mature intellect is to overcome such dissonance with creative willpower. Hence I have NO PROBLEM reading views that conflict with my own, but keep my focus on the issue at hand, and assiduously utilize critical thinking to ensure that I'm not guzzling someone else's Kool Aid.”

Your dissonance filter is set so high, that it is virtually impossible to break through it. However, in a forum like this, others are seeing the real story come through, THEY follow the links, THEY see that 260 feet of NEW ICE formed over the airplanes and THEY have the intelligence to question how something can be shrinking and growing at the same time. THEY are the ones I am talking to, since convincing you of anything that isn't already in your world view is totally impossible.

Mr. Y sets the most important rule of the EnergyPulse media, which is not followed by some characters: “Mr. G., I was hoping this discussion would not degrade to name calling, and resent the following insinuation: ‘I find it very offensive to have fools such as these ...’ Perhaps in your world-view I am a fool, but out here in the real world I decidedly am NOT. I thought this site was intended for exactly what the banners that attracted me to it in the first place say, "Insight, Analysis and Commentary on the Global Power Industry". From various posts and article contributions here, I believed this site was populated by serious professionals endeavoring to do serious work and contribute to real world, workable solutions. If instead it is merely another mental masturbation club by all means let me know so I can reset the bookmark as porn site.

Almost two years ago, Mr. X tried to disclose non-trivial elements of a fix to deregulation, on what later emerged as the EWPC re-regulation paradigm.
Mr. M wrote to Mr. X that Dr. Kahn had said "I am worried about the uniqueness of the electricity markets. I've always been uncertain about eliminating vertical integration. It may be one industry in which it works reasonably well." Today we know that the uniqueness of electricity markets disappears with the reliability first, economy second, R1E2, concept. Electricity markets are no longer unique.

It is important to recall that as Mr. Y had appointed himself as an arbiter, who knew nothing, Mr. X researched who Mr. Y was and found a few intelligence insights. First he found Mr. M opinion of Mr. Y as “That master of misinformation, …will almost certainly be at your throat before this debate is off the airwaves.” That remark made Mr. X proceed very carefully after learning that.

In addition, Mr. Y had said “Well, Einstein is merely the most famous and recent example of a scientist who went against the popular CONSENSUS of the time, Mr. M.”

Identifying the discovery that the EWPC paradigm maximizes social welfare, based on Mr. Y statement, Mr. X wrote “This is my synthesis of the EWPC paradigm shift that maximizes social welfare. Although it is a non-trivial subject, it seems that many intelligent and important readers of earlier posts may just understand it. Maybe, I could get a prize for it, as it goes against the politically correct and the popular consensus of our time.”

Then Mr. G understood Mr. X message to Mr. Y, as being sent to himself, as Mr. Y had abandon him already by keeping silent to this day, and said “And BTW, Mr. X, I haven't heard exactly a chorus (or even any) other than yourself declaring EWPC any sort of rational strategy. From the small fragments of hard information you've so far provided, I conclude it's not either rational OR innovative. Perhaps all the self-promotion is drowning the information?”

Mr. X replied urging Mr. G “I like to read what Mr. M and Mr. Y have to say.” They have not said one word up to this moment. We expect they will come back and say “Mr. X should be awarded a Nobel Prize on the spot,” as Mr. M had written in the opening comment under this article “… Whoever comes up with the optimal solution here deserves to be awarded a Nobel Prize on the spot.”

And lo and behold, Mr. X had certainly come up the optimal solution and many other recent discoveries:

Discovery: The BIG California LIE. The BIG LIE is that retail competition is impossible in electric markets. The implementation of a competitive retail market was the center of the debate in California. Instead of cooperating to implement it, the three big California utilities, that didn't care about the end-custumers, acted very irresponsibly. EWPC is the paradigm shift to show that retail competition is not only possible, but absolutely necessary to turn the electricity industry into a vibrant value added business for all stakeholders.

Discovery: A comparison between the power industry vertical integration and electricity without price controls (EWPC) non-trivial paradigms, will show that EWPC should be adopted in the new US Energy Bill, as part of a new deal, like the one of the 1930s, to get the world power industry in a superior development path.

Discovery: Vertically integrated utilities don't operate as a system because of a monopoly mindset of incumbents’ investor owned utilities and political interference. To operate as a system a paradigm shift to EWPC is required to offer customers competitive services and to neutralize political interference.

Discovery: To solve the Smart Grid cost recovery dilemma requires a restructuring of the electric industry in such a way that the regulator gets the right signals. A shift from The Anti-System Utility to EWPC solves the problem, as cost recovery of AMI technologies are sent to the market with an international standard interface, which will restrict business model innovations by Second Generation Retailer - 2GR.

Discovery: Relative to the VIUs paradigm, EWPC will lead to lower costs, lower profits and lower prices after a reasonable delay. To accomplish that engineers need to take the transportation function that allow the market between supply and demand run efficiently.

Discovery : The uniqueness of electricity markets disappears with the reliability first, economy second, R1E2, concept. A structural change that separates transportation and the (generation, retail, customer) value chain and applying ultraquality transportation planning to produce maximum social welfare, the non-trivial essential elements of vertical integration are preserved in the transportation side. R1E2 is all that is needed to make the open EWPC a market architecture and design no longer unique.

Discovery : Breakthrough… going from VIUs to the new paradigm cannot be done incrementally…. “as it brings a lot of waste, by paying rates (the higher the rates, the better the scam) for each incremental feature (demand response, energy efficiency decoupling, NERC standards, etc.,) and getting many costly unneeded things in the process. There is a need for a breakthrough process, and the knowledge to get there is already available. All tinkering have already been done with deregulation. There is a great difference between tinkering and non-trivial system design, done by professionals.”

Recommendation: EWPC is a breakthrough that is poised to transform the electricity industry. As the state of Ohio is in the process to re-regulate the industry, they should make the transition to the EWPC market architecture and design, instead of a costly retrocession to vertically integrated utilities.

Recommendation: As a result of David killing Goliath, US Congress has the great opportunity to introduce EWPC to the USA. In addition, the state of Ohio has the first opportunity to reap the benefits of retail competition, by developing 2GRs and integrating active demand to power system planning, operation and control. The Dominican Republic has one of the best positions to implement EWPC, but needs to place the Very Short Electricity Law in the waste basket.

Recommendation: A paradigm shift to EWPC is urgently needed to change the status quo and start integrating distributed resources and good ideas into power sectors all over the world.

Recommendation: US Congress and the European Commission need to digest EWPC very fast. The political distortions in the power industry at the state level in the USA and at the country level in Europe can be strongly mitigated by performing a paradigm shift to EWPC.

Recommendations: The US Congress, the European Commission, the state of Ohio, and the Dominican Republic, are some the most likely candidates to start the paradigm shift to EWPC, ending demand forever as an externality. It has been shown that the days of the obsolete VIUs paradigm are counted. A paradigm shift to EWPC is the next source of business innovations, jobs with a lot of future and increasing exports. Those governments that take the lead, and avoid the risks of market implementation failure by retaining high caliber professional team advice, will reap most of the benefits.

Conclusions and recommendations:

Mr. M had written two years ago: "Electricity deregulation as it has been practiced is an illogical fad. Mr. X is completely correct about the shortcomings of linear economics, but as for finding a new paradigm to get to what he calls "true" (electricity) market deregulation, well..."

By joining the above statement, the one about the Nobel Prize and the assertion that Dr. Alfred Kahn worries about eliminating vertical integration are over, and that a true electricity market re-regulation (no deregulation) with the optimal solution to produce maximum social benefits, can Mr. M and Mr. Y conclude NOW that Mr. X deserves to be awarded a Nobel Prize on the spot?