lunes, noviembre 05, 2007

The "Continuity" Scenario is Gone

The future of the power industry is now restricted to the "Tough Times" and "Rising Expectations" scenarios of Deloitte Research, as the "Continuity" scenario is no longer available.

The "Continuity" Scenario is Gone

By José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D.
Systemic Consultant: Electricity

Copyright © 2007 José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio. All rights reserved. No part of this article may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, without written permission from José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio. Please write to to contact the author for any kind of engagement.

Dear Mr. Braginton-Smith, Mr. Reid, and Mr. Gould:

I see the idea being presented in the article as a likely scenario. In fact, it could be associated to the scenarios that appeared in post The Future of the Power Industry in 2006, developed by Deloitte Research in 2005. The scenarios are: "Continuity," "Tough Times" and "Rising Expectations."

As Ed is writing from scenario of "Continuity," Brian is doing so for "Tough Times." The probability that we will be facing "Tough Times."

Reinhold Ziegler, founder of Synergy International, has placed a version of this article -Compliments and Critique of the article: Distributed Architectural Renewable Energy Generation - on with a comment that includes a presentation, which in slide 19 has:

The future of electric power
"It is becoming clear that the future of our electric power will come less from large coal, gas and nuclear power plants, but more from millions of building-integrated micro generators and urban wind-turbunes, photoelectric solar panels mounted on the roof-tops of the city with wind farms in the countryside.

Existing national power grids won't disappear. They will operate like the Internet, as part of a complex web through which people will supply electricity, by uploading, as well as downloading it."

We call this process distributed generation and it is being introduced all over the world.

Such future of electric power environment is good for both "Tough Times" and "Rising Expectations," which can be developed under EWPC market architecture and design paradigm. The "Continuity" scenario, based on vertically integrated utilities, has been proven again, and again, not to be viable anymore. The most recent dialogue can be found in the article Response to Professor Banks.

For the most latests articles of that dialogue please read:

11/03/2007 Positive returns in the power industry that existed under vertical integration are now gone. New positive returns will come from business model inno...

11/02/2007 As there are Only Two Stable Paradigms, the electricity-regulation bill approved by Ohio’s Senate is just a new mistaken experiment under econ...

11/02/2007 Can we concentrate on results? I would say YES, as the knowledge required to decide that the decade old debate between great scams and the apparentl...

Customer Wallet Cleaning Problem and Solution
11/01/2007 The vertically integrated utilities paradigm has been in a NO PROFIT ZONE for quite some time, letting utilities make a profit under regulation only...

Best regards,

José Antonio

Reference and context: Distributed Architectural Renewable Energy Generation, by Brian Braginton-Smith, Executive Director, Sustainable Resources Group