martes, abril 03, 2012

Conjecture: ICT Replaces Energy as a New Type of Carrier Industry

I conjecture that energy is a manufacturing carrier industry that is being replaced by the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) system design carrier industry.

This is how the “Long Wave Model” has played out. Starting around 1770, in the Industrial Revolution, cotton and pig iron were the carrier industries that “fueled” economic growth. Then around 1830, in the Victorian Prosperity, they changed to the coal and transport industries. Around 1880, in the “Belle Epoque,” the change was to the steel industry. Close to 1940, in the Golden Age of Full Employment, it shifted to the energy industry. All of those were manufacturing industries.

In every long wave a high level basic innovation is at play for the whole economy driven by the carrier industry. As an example, please take a look at the post the post The Renaissance of the Power Industry (this is a correction that replaces "The Coming Renaissance" of Business Model (not Price) Competition under EWPC-AF).

As a result of a carrier industry “running out gas,” there is a big systemic depression, which is an important destructive systemic downward spiral. As a replacement a new long wave with a systemic upward spiral enters to end the depression. My conjecture is that we are experiencing an upward spiral that is the result of the ICT system design carrier industry.

The country or countries that lead the upward spiral will be the winners. For the loser, the longer the energy manufacturing carrier industry status quo countries neutralize the ICT carrier industry, the longer the devastating effects of the systemic depression.

Please tell me how do see this conjecture. All comments will be centralized under the original post in the EWPC Blog.