jueves, septiembre 22, 2016

Eamonn Kelly's 'Emergence' scenario is the answer to financial, political, social anti-systems unvailed by 'hard to beat' Mohamed el-Erian

After receiving Fortune's Power Sheet, "Daily insights on leaders and leadership," of September 22, 2016, How to Respond to the Broken Financial System, written by Geoff Colvin, it grabed my whole attention for the synchonicity of what we are doing to help transform anti-systems into unpredented living systems by leaping to the field of the future which is the systemic civilization. From it we extract, for example, its introduction and its key paragraph, that say:

I was listening yesterday to one of my favorite people, Mohamed el-Erian, chief economic adviser to Allianz and former CEO of Pimco, among other distinguished roles. For insight into economics and finance, plus an ability to communicate it clearly and memorably, he is hard to beat. Yesterday he told a story that leaders of all kinds should ponder.

His larger point is that today’s environment is in many ways as crazy and unpredictable as the environment of September 2008, and we must prepare in the same way. “Secular stagnation” isn’t secular, he argues – it can’t last. Looking across the developed world, he believes the financial system is broken; “negative rates don’t work forever.” Politics are broken; fringe parties and movements can influence but can’t govern. And social systems are broken, as the widespread revolt against immigration shows. Today’s stagnation will end in the next two to three years, he says. But how?
My first response was to write a tweet that that gives thanks to Geoff Colvin and Fortune Magazine for validating Mohamed el-Erian poweful insight. However, as tweets have a limited audience, we are making this quality collaboration to increasy its audience. What el-Erian said is here reinterpreted for the title of this post based on our quote "Deming said they were broken systems. We propose they are not systems, but anti-systems."

In today's tweet, we also recognized the 'emergence' scenario written by Eamonn Kelly for the decade that ended last year as what is needed to end the current global leadership vacuum we have been writing about in this  blog. That scenario we discovered corresponds to what need to be created as the systemic civilization. It was addressed to the Global Debout and related movements

The idea of such a leadership community emerged after many though experiments have been conducted on this blog with the feedback of many citizens from several countries. Those citizen might now consider themselves as Global Debout citizens that follow the spirit of the 15-M movement of Spain, which is about interdependence, not independence as some political parties, like Podemos and Ciudadanos have interpreted it.
It is under the hashtag for the Systemic Civilization Golden Age (#SCGA_EDCS - 8 tweet conversations at this time) that all tweets are grouped. Three of those tweets were about Eamonn Kelly's three scenarios that come from his book Poweful Times. One has an image of a summary of the scenarios which was reused for today's tweet.

That image was to support a poll in Twitter which resulted in favored of the emergence scenario. The other tweet had a shortened one sentence description of the scenarios. It is easy to see that today's world is a mix of the two scenarios "New American Century" and "Patchworks Powers" of the industrial civilization which has been expanded beyond its limits. In fact, what Mohamed el-Erian said corresponds to our "Tiempos Difíciles" scenario, while the emergence scenario correspond to our "Expectativas Elevadas,"

Here the update to Kelly's scenarios is simply related to the difference between independence on the industrial civilization  (with USA as the reference) that resulted from the third information revolution of about 500 hundred years ago and the emergent interdependence, into unprecedented living systems which results from the fourth information revolution.