miércoles, septiembre 06, 2006

GMH - Hay que Reformar Ley Eléctrica y Luego Aplicar Parte 3

En ocasión de la reunión "abierta" a los sectores interesados del sector eléctrico, es bueno que se pregunten ¿en qué negocio están? En ese sentido, repito una parte de un nota publicada anteriormente, para ampliar lo que le espera a los generadores en un futuro, que muy posiblemente no sea aquí el lugar donde suceda. El mensaje es que los generadores quieren seguir vendiendo electricidad al gobierno, en vez de venderle a los clientes finales vía la competencia al detalle. Los dos últimos párrafos en español los actualicé. La nota decía así en parte:

I will give you all a quote from Megatrends on the "Law of the Situation: the railroads did not understand."

Suppose that somewhere along the way a railroad company, sensing the changes in its business environment, had engaged in the process of reconceptualing what business it was in. Suppose they had said, "Let´s get out of the railroad business and into the transportation business." They could have created systems that moved goods by rail, truck, airplane, or in combination, as appopriate. "Moves goods" is the customer-oriented point. Instead, they continued transfixed by the lore of railroading that have served the country so well - until the world change.

Of this phenomenon Walter B. Wriston, chairman of Citycorp, in 1981 said: "The philosophy of the divine right of kings died hundreds of years ago, but not, it seems, the divine right of inherited markets. Some people still believe there´s a divine dispensation that their markets are theirs - and no one else´s - now and forevermore. It is an old dream that dies hard, yet no businessman in a free society can control a market when the customers decide to go somewhere else. All the king´s horses and all the king´s man are helpless in the face of a better product. Our commercial history is filled with examples of companies that failed to change in a changing world, and became tombstones in the corporate graveyard


Con mi trabajo de la electricidad sin control de precios, ya divulgada como un cambio de paradigma, la situación es propicia para averiguar si el negocio de venderle electricidad al gobierno es sustentable. Yo creo que el negocio es más amplio y rico con la nueva definición que muy humildemente he realizado - reducir la destrucción de valor de la empresa con los pagones, al tiempo que recuperamos nuestra inversión con creces.

La visión de introducir un detallista que transforme el mercado eléctrico en uno común y corriente al 1 de enero del 2008 es tan poderosa como la de Kennedy de llevar un hombre a la luna.Preguntensé ¿en cual negocio le gustaría estar? uno que vaya en contra de la corriente para perpetuar la Segunda Ola, o uno que vaya a favor.

GMH - Hay que Reformar Ley Eléctrica y Luego Aplicar Parte 2

Las posibilidades de la competitividad sistémica parecen estar definidas. Es exactamente como está diseñado por la industria eléctrica internacional. Solamente los clientes grandes tienen ese derecho, sin importar que reciban una parte importantes de los subsidios que no dejan que el CRI suba. Los demás tendrán que aguantar apagones por mucho rato, manteniendo el riesgo político para el Presidente muy elevado. Esa es la percepción educada que tengo y que me recordó lo que dijo Donella Meadows en el 2001 sobre la crisis de California. La diferencia es que aquí el colapso es previo a la acción. Dijo Donella en aquel entonces:

First, electricity restructuring is not being driven by the goal of reducing residential rates. The drivers are technology and industry. New ways of making electricity, such as combined-cycle natural gas generators, and soon fuel cells, allow industrial users to produce their own power at lower cost and with less pollution. One by one they are slipping off the grid, leaving the utilities, with their huge, outmoded, unpaid-for power plants, in a panic.

To save themselves, the power companies meet in back rooms with politicians. They must accomplish three things. First, they must allow big customers to lock in low rates, so they will stay on the grid. Second, they must pay off the debt for their dinosaur plants. Third, they must sell the deal to the public by promising lower rates.

The only way to pull off this miracle is with a public bail-out, called "stranded costs" in the back rooms. Stranded cost payments mean that your electric bill will actually be higher, but a chunk of it will be hidden in your tax bill. This maneuver has nothing to do with a free market. It is perverse socialism. Prop up a dying industry by forcing the people to pay for bad investments. Order utilities to cut rates for awhile to lull taxpayers. Then let the people shop for power in competition with the big guys. That's where the market will come in, but markets aren't kind to little players competing against big ones.

Restructuring has already squeezed out the best supply strategy, namely efficiency. In almost any application, from lighting to water pumps to electric motors, it is cheaper and far better for the environment to install devices that deliver the same service with less power.

El artículo completo se puede leer en este enlace.