lunes, diciembre 22, 2008

Renewable Power and Smart Grid as Parts of a Whole

It is argued that the smart grid is not the lifeline of renewable power. Instead, what´s holding both is the Investor Owned Utility paradigm..

Renewable Power and Smart Grid are Parts of a Whole

By José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D.
Systemic Consultant: Electricity

First posted in the GMH Blog, on December 22nd, 2008.

Copyright © 2008 José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio. All rights reserved. No part of this article may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, without written permission from José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio. This article is an unedited, an uncorrected, draft material of The EWPC Textbook. Please write to javs@ieee.org to contact the author for any kind of engagement.

David Talbot has provided the timely and well documented paper “Lifeline for Renewable Power: Without a radically expanded and smarter electrical grid, wind and solar will remain niche power sources,” for the January/February edition of the Technology Review magazine. In this Electricity Without Price Controls (EWPC) article I argue differently by selecting a few EWPC article with their summaries to support the argument.

The lifeline of renewable energy is not the smart grid. Renewable power and the smart grid are just two disruptive technologies that are componentes of an interlocking whole (the emergent order of the power sector), which is enabled by the EWPC market architecture and design and which involves tightly integrating a set of disruptive technologies, as envisioned in the EWPC article The Sixth Disruptive Technology (please hit the link to read it).

The articles’ summary says: “A set of 6 disruptive technologies can be identified ‘To do a better job of managing our dwindling energy resources…’ AMI and the Smart Grid are the fourth and fifth disruptive technologies to allow a breakthrough paradigm of the power industry for the 21st Century, as the required technologies become available, and will be tightly integrated by business model innovations - the sixth disruptive technology - developed by 2GRs into a systemic superior solution. The first three disruptive technologies are demand response, distributed generation and storage, and energy efficiency.” According to Peter Senge, the task of integrating the technologies is more critical than the task of designing any single component.

The paper talks about one vicious circle, which is signaled by “In many of the states in the region, there's no particular urgency to move things along, since each has all the power it needs.” The problem arises as integrated Investor Owned Utilities (IOUs) get in the way of the emergent revolution. In fact there are other vicious circles reinforcing each other in the old IOUs order, which are disintegrating the power sector. For example, one of those vicious circles is due to the perverse incentive against energy efficiency, which is now handled with an artificial decoupling.

The problem can be seen from another angle in the EWPC article The Anti-System Utility, whose summary says: “Vertically integrated utilities don't operate as a system because of a monopoly mindset of incumbents’ investor owned utilities and political interference. To operate as a system a paradigm shift to EWPC is required to offer customers competitive services and to neutralize political interference.”

As for IOUs restructuring to end the price control business model and enable business model innovations, we get to the question posed in the EWPC article “Will Dr. Chu Turn Around the Power Industry?” This article is summarized in this way: “As President Obama's picked Nobel Prize Steven Chu as the Energy Secretary, that knows what he is talking about the environment, he will need to enable Mr. Obama’s leadership to be able to turn around the global power industry to complete a global energy deal that is a prerequisite to complete the global environmental deal.”

Such turn around can only be done with the introduction of comprehensive legislation based on EWPC to execute Gore’s plan. Gore’s plan was anticipated in the EWPC article Is Gore's Revolutionary Leadership Challenge Feasible? The article’s summary states: “Al Gore leadership challenge is based on leading expert advice. EWPC is the first holistic step ready to be implemented in an Energy Policy Act that satisfies the non-trivial power system requirements laid out by the leading experts’ power industry insiders the late Fred C. Schweppe and Jack Casazza.” It is that essential step that enables the process to integrate of all the disruptive technologies.

The other alternative mentioned in Talbot’s paper, to execute Gore’s plan as a public works project, will be a great mess, as IOUs will keep interfering as they do today. The “regulatory moves was that companies had less incentive to invest in the grid than in new power plants, and no one had a clear responsibility for expanding the transmission infrastructure.” The solution is the EWPC smart grid T&D transportation only utility regulated under a compact with a responsibility to transport.

Finally energy leaders should follow the advice of the EWPC article Leadership Answers What to do First, whose summary affirms that “The answer to the question of what to do first is for the global power industry to get out of the wrong jungle to produce a EWPC based EPAct as soon as possible. That is the kind of leadership needed to face the inevitable fundamental changes required to significantly reduce today’s legislative and regulatory uncertainty.

Note: most old EWPC articles can be found in the index EWPC Blog's First Year Anniversary: Electricity for the Digital Era. For the recent ones I suggest browsing http://www.energyblogs.com/






Feliz Navidad e Inicio en 2009 a un Futuro sin Apagones Arbitrarios

A todos los clientes regulados del servicio eléctrico dominicano:

El Grupo Millennium Hispaniola (GMH), en formación, desea a todos ustedes que la Comisión Presidencial para el Fortalecimiento del Sector Eléctrico, creada por decreto, se decida por reestructurar el sector eléctrico dominicano para resolver de forma definitiva la prolongada crisis del sector. Con esa reestructuración, cada uno de ustedes podrá elegir un servicio individualizado de máximo bienestar, acorde a sus necesidades particulares, de conformidad con la constitución y las leyes, y particularmente con nueva Ley General de Electricidad.

Ese máximo bienestar individual se podrá lograr dentro de un amplio rango de prestaciones, entre los límites de un servicio del menor costo al de un servicio de mayor valor agregado. Si cada cliente tiene la posibilidad de elegir su máximo bienestar social como clientes no regulados, el país como un todo logrará al máximo bienestar social.

Un servicio de menor costo se logra minimizando el costo total que resulta durante un plazo prolongado, que podría ser un año como mínimo, de la suma (1) del costo de abastecimiento (las facturas) más (2) el costo de autoabastecimiento (si dispone de autoservicio) más (3) el costo de desabastecimiento (que incurre por los apagones), menos (4) pago de compensación (monto real que le corresponde por el mal servicio) menos (5) pago por servicios entregados al sistema contratados con su suplidor. El mal servicio puede ser de calidad, seguridad, confiabilidad, disponibilidad, o cualquier combinación de esos factores de prestación de servicio, conforme al tipo de servicio contratado que dejará de ser estandarizado.

Del ineficiente servicio tradicional normalizado a los clientes regulados, que se supuso ser de prestaciones homogénea bajo control de precios, pero que nunca se ha logrado, ha emergido un servicio heterogéneo que incluye el autoservicio. De hecho, un servicio con prestaciones heterogéneas, de la combinación de factores mencionados, permite una gama de servicio de precios conformes a dichas prestaciones a ser elaborados en planes de servicio bajo el rigor de la competencia en los mercados minorista y mayorista. Los clientes que requieran prestaciones más exigentes podrán elegir un servicio de mayor valor agregado y tendrán un costo relativamente mayor por el abastecimiento, su autoservicio y el desabastecimiento.

Es fácil entender que un futuro sin apagones arbitrarios será razonable, cuando el mal servicio sea compensado por el comercializador del servicio, conforme a la Sección IV A del Código Civil, “De la indemnizaciones de daños y perjuicios que resultan de la falta de cumplimiento de la obligación,” Artículo 1146 y siguientes.

Es importante recalcar que los precios de los diversos planes de servicio estarán relacionados a precios transparentes de referencia del mercado mayorista, en cada hora y lugar, cumpliendo una regulación prudencial que sustituye la regulación de precios. Ese precio de referencia es el precio de oportunidad (spot) para la electricidad con prestaciones altamente elevadas. El diseño de ese mercado será el resultado de un equipo virtuoso de consultores coordinados por quien suscribe como arquitecto del sistema.

En esencia se sugiere que la Comisión Presidencial considere, en su primera reunión, una profundización de la reforma del sector eléctrico, que sea justa, transparente y equitativa, pero sobre todo que se cumpla con lo que se apruebe, de forma que se inicie una transición en este año 2009 hacia la nueva arquitectura y diseño de mercado de la electricidad sin control de precios (EWPC).

Les sugerimos que lean la nota Solicitud a 1ra.. Audiencia del Comité Presidencial para el Fortalecimiento del Sector Eléctrico para diseñar y aplicar un verdadero plan integral y no varios planes desintegrados para cada parte del sistema. Para que el Comité Presidencial se decida y se pueda hacer el regalo efectivo, esperamos que nos escriban a la dirección javs@ieee.org si están interesados en apoyarnos en dicha solicitud. Los invitamos a que hagan extensivo este regalo de Navidad a sus amigos y relacionados que son clientes regulados.

Felices pascuas y un próspero inicio en el 2009 del proceso que nos lleve a un futuro sin apagones arbitrarios.

José Antonio Vanderhorst Silverio, Ph.D.
Consultor Sistémico: Electricidad
Arquitecto de Sistemas de la EWPC
Semilla Orgánica del GMH
Apartado 4979, Santo Domingo, D.N.