miércoles, marzo 30, 2011

What do we need to do today to create the best possible future for the smart grid?

The first thing that needs to be done, to create the best possible future for the smart grid, is a global institutional transformation to enable the Golden Era that Dr. Carlota Pérez described as a result of the recurring patterns in the previous four technological revolutions, of the past 240 years. As part of the global status quo, right now we are experiencing Casino Capitalism, which is just a symptom of fundamental issue of an exclusive short term financial capital that is driving instability in the world economy.

The Golden Era will be enable by a paradigm shift away from the status quo to the inclusive long term production capital as the driver, with financial capital coming back to its traditional supporting role of Golden Eras. Doing otherwise might be the end of capitalism. The best posible future of the smart grid under the Golden Era might be the one described in the GMH post Was the #EWPC-AF_Creator the All Around Winner of the Smart Grid 2025 Game?


martes, marzo 29, 2011

Dr. Fernández: ¿Haría Usted el Intento de Convertirse en un Líder Global Auténtico?

“Estamos en la antesala de una nueva gran revolución tecnológica”
-- Doctor Leonel Fernández, Presidente de la República Dominicana.


Por José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D.
Miembro Vitalicio del IEEE
Miembro de la Academia de Ciencias
Consultor Sistémico

En la víspera de otra gran celebración del 30 de marzo, celebro también el 12avo aniversario del GRITO PATRIOTICO POR LA INTERDEPENDENCIA ELECTRICA. Al igual que ayer, sigo viendo como nuestro sector eléctrico persiste todavía en una crisis sistémica de grandes proporciones, que explico más adelante por el modelo mental que impera en el FMI y en otras entidades multilaterales. Como verán a continuación, esta crisis es el resultado de una institucionalidad perversa, que a pesar de estar “requete” obsoleta, mantiene a la fuerza el status quo político global.

Es ese superpoderoso status quo el que, por ejemplo, bloquea la salida a la luz pública de los resultados del juego Smart Grid 2025, organizado por el IEEE Spectrum y ejecutado en el Foresight Engine of the Institute For The Future, en el que resultó evidente que el escenario ganador del futuro superó con un cambio de paradigma el escenario que dicho superpoderoso status quo está ya implantando. Al respecto, pueden ver la nota Was the EWPC-AF_Creator the All Around Winner of the Smart Grid 2025 Game?

Aunque parece un gran salto, sin mucha lógica, pasar de dicho “inofensivo juego” al status quo de la política de carácter global, que por supuesto domina también el estatus quo local, la realidad papable es que el futuro del pueblo dominicano está íntimamente ligado al potencial de que el mundo cambie para que tengamos la posibilidad de prosperar. Ese es un puente y ahora sigue el otro.

Aparentemente sin buena lógica tampoco, podríamos evitar el debate interno desgastante sobre la reelección, que podría resultar innecesario, si el Presidente Dr. Leonel Fernández Reyna asume el sacrificio que le propongo. Hago esta propuesta alternativa que también pongo a la consideración de todos los dominicanos, sin distinción.

En estos tiempos de gran oscuridad e incertidumbre global, el principal problema a corto y largo plazos de la República Dominicana y de la gran mayoría de los países en desarrollo, agrupados posiblemente en el G-77, no es de carácter interno, como el de las luchas electorales. En esto momentos de una crisis externa de grandes proporciones, propongo muy humilde y también respetuosamente al Señor Presidente que abandone la reelección local y decida convertirse en un estadista global, espacio que ha estado conquistando desde hace tiempo. Por ejemplo, si fuese posible, tomando el liderazgo y transformando lo que hoy es el programa G-77 de la Organización de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) en una gran fuerza política, social, económica y cultural a nivel global.

Esta sugerencia se ampara en las declaraciones ofrecidas después del debate que se originó luego de la presentación de Heiner Flassbeck, director de la División de Globalización y Estrategias de Desarrollo de la (UNCTAD), cuando el Dr. Fernández advirtió que:

…lo que está claro es que la República Dominicana no puede ser indiferente no puede cruzarse de brazos y tiene que jugar un rol de liderazgo en hacer que el mundo cambie, porque aquí ya lo estamos viviendo, cuando suben los precios el pueblo dominicano se irrita, se molesta, se incomoda y cree que el responsable es el Gobierno, y los responsables son los que están en la economía de casino, a nivel mundial

La especulación y el capitalismo de casino están llevando al hambre a millones de personas en el mundo lo que están provocando disturbios sociales, inestabilidad política y eso va ha ser autodestructivo; la economía mundial no puede seguir funcionando de esa manera y no puede seguir siendo un capitalismo destructor, generador de muerte, miseria y penurias para millones de personas.


Mi sugerencia se apoya también en que la economía, capitalismo o finanzas de casino es solamente un síntoma de un problema subyacente mayor. Para explicarlo me baso en el libro de Peter Schwartz, “The Art of the Long View: Planning for the future in an uncertain World,” que compré y devoré hace 12 años, a mi regreso de ejercicio gerencial dirigido a desarrollar las ventajas competitivas de la República Dominicana en la ciudad de Cambridge, Massachusetts, que menciono al inicio del GRITO PATRIOTICO POR LA INTERDEPENDENCIA ELECTRICA.

Schwartz argumenta [adaptación libre mía] que “A menudo, los líderes prefieren la ilusión de la certeza en vez de comprender los riesgos y las realidades. Si el pronosticador falla en su tarea, cómo se le puede echar la culpa al líder? Pero a largo plazo, al negar la incertidumbre prepara el terreno para las sorpresas, haciendo añicos su confianza en su habilidad para mirar adelante. Los escenarios le permiten a un líder decir, “estoy preparado para lo que suceda.” Es esta habilidad para actuar con un sentido de riesgo y recompensa, basado en el conocimiento, el que separa tanto al ejecutivo y al individuo sabio del burócrata o el apostador.

Como anticipé, esa explicación aplica 100 por 100 a las recetas del FMI. Esto así, porque reiteradamente el FMI sigue el obsoleto modelo mental de Keynes que dice que “la sabiduría convencional enseña que es mejor para la reputación fallar de forma convencional que ser exitoso de manera no convencional.” En efecto, el FMI prefiere mantener la ilusión de la certeza de un mundo, que repito está basado en una “institucionalidad perversa, que a pesar de estar ‘requete’ obsoleta, mantiene a la fuerza el status quo político global.”

Interpretando las explicaciones de la brillante experta Venezolana, la Dra. Carlota Pérez, “investigadora, conferencista y consultora internacional, experta en el impacto socio-económico del cambio tecnológico y en las condiciones históricamente cambiantes para el crecimiento, el desarrollo y la competitividad,” entiendo que el mundo tiene dos escenarios por delante: una Era Dorada y lamentablemente a falta del liderazgo auténtico necesario una costosa continuación del status quo para nuestros países. Para que la Era Dorada se materialice, la Dra. Pérez afirma que el capital financiero de corto plazo debe ser sustituido por el capital productivo de largo plazo, logrando que el capital financiero pase de nuevo a ocupar, como lo ha hecho en las cuatro revoluciones tecnológicas de los últimos 240 años, el rol de estar al servicio del capital productivo. En efecto, el síntoma del capitalismo de casino es el resultado de la preponderancia del status quo, que impone la causa subyacente del capital financiero de corto plazo.

Para lograr el cambio anterior, la Dra. Pérez anticipa grandes cambios institucionales a nivel global y local, que entre muchas cosas modificaría el rol que juega el FMI para proteger el status quo para que entonces la institución que lo sustituya, que podría surgir del esfuerzo en el G-77, pase a impulsar la Era Dorada. Se trata de un cambio de paradigma mayor en el que al perderse la garantía de la energía barata del paradigma anterior, el mundo pasa a organizarse alrededor de la garantía de la información barata.

La Dra. Pérez explica que en la primera fase que termina con la burbuja, ya está instalada la infraestructura de la quinta revolución, la Revolución de las Tecnologías de la Información y las Telecomunicaciones (TICs). Que estamos en lo que ella llama el punto clave (Tipping Point), que interpreto nos presenta los dos escenarios.

Ella indica además que la aspiración del mundo entero por el estilo de vida de los americanos (The American Way), que se basa en la energía barata, requiere siete planetas tierra. Por eso ella ofrece una visión de la Era Dorada, basada en una amplia recuperación que aproveche el poder de la globalización, valores “verdes,” y mucho más importante, las TICs. Por “verde” ella sugiere que es necesario un cambio amplio en estilos de vida y métodos de producción y de transporte.




jueves, marzo 24, 2011

Was the EWPC-AF_Creator the All Around Winner of the Smart Grid 2025 Game?

First update. Next you can see original comments posted on the EWPC Blog.

Comments

To get familiar with the EWPC-AF, I suggest reading the long discussion I had with Mr. James Carson. The discussion continued under the first and second entry that can be seen on the "Four Entries Bundle on the #EWPC-AF posted on November 30 and December 8, 10, and 13, 2009 http://bit.ly/EWPC93 . That bundle gives a much complete picture of the EWPC-AF at the end of 2009.

In the second entry, "I think the Debate on the IOUs and EWPC Architecture Frameworks is Over," Mr. Carson wrote "The debate is indeed over. My point that no sane regulator would ever follow Jose Antonio's plan has not been refuted." That was his last post. You could see my response to him, but I have below a much simple one as a result of the above mentioned EEE Spectrum Smart Grid of 2025 Game, as can be seen from the following plays:

Momentum Card by EWPC-AF_Creator: "Set the energy policy priority as system performance first, short run economic costs second."

Adaptation Card by capt_stargazer: "That would be great if it happened. Just doesn't reflect the reality of policy-making in my experience. Hopefully things could change!"

Adaptation Card by EWPC-AF_Creator: "That only happens very rarely when the old system is replaced by the new system, as it happened to banks in the Great Depression of 1930s."

Momentum Card by capt_stargazer: "Therefore, it makes sense to prepare for the next disruption and be ready to move when that window of change opens."

Momentum Card by EWPC-AF_Creator: The IEEE Spectrum looks carefully to the EWPC post "Why the Smart Grid World Forum Requires Learning About T&D Transportation Ultraquality" ( I add here to look at the link http://bit.ly/8XF5b1
)

Momentum Card by capt_stargazer: "Rolling black-outs and failure of traditional grid provides real-time proving ground for micro-innovation."

Momentum Card by EWPC-AF_Creator: "SG eliminates the need to open medium voltage circuit brakers. A whole new ball game opens in all kinds of innovation on the power industry."

End of the tree branch.
Jose Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio

No es sorpresa que algunos links funcionan y otros no. Uno que funciona fue superado por conocimiento que emergió posteiormente.
Jose Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio


By José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D.
IEEE Life Member
March 24, 2011

As the self named creator of the Electricity Without Price Control Architecture Framework (EWPC-AF), I participated with a lot of interest in the great opportunity generated by the IEEE Spectrum organized and sponsored Smart Grid of 2025 Game. The interest was in order to show that I had already created as a very different scenario the best possible future for the Smart Grid in the world.

That Game was executed last week in the notoriously effective and efficient Foresight Engine platform of the Institute For the Future (IFTF). As might be seen in the interdependent engagements on the Game’s DASHBOARD, that future is well in accordance with the IEEE Tag Line of Advancing Technology for Humanity. The Tag Line subset I had already identified in public discussions is Advancing Grids for Customers.

It is important to understand that the experiments conducted in the Foresight Engine collaborative community are generally known for its capacity to exploit the “Wisdom of Crowds,” by building up ideas that engage players to gain momentum as an analytic feasible winning scenario. But, according to the IFTF it is also very powerful and useful device to facilitate collaborative testing by players in the community, of what they call “outlier” ideas, like that of the original EWPC-AF idea, that I claim are synthesized by one person or a very small team.

Before asking the question “Was the EWPC-AF_Creator the All Around Winner of the Smart Grid 2025 Game?,” I first executed a kind of due process, by asking many times, through several social network channels, like the News blog of the said Game, Twitter, in particular the @iftf twitter account, as well as Facebook, the EWPC Blog, to be able to see in the full DASHBOARD where all the players stand.

In the mean time, as far as I can see, even when the IFTF kindly tweeted to their more than 6,000 followers the EWPC post Did a Paradigm Shift Emerge in the 24 Hours of the IEEE Spectrum Smart Grid 2025 Game?, no one else like me has insistently asked to see the mentioned DASHBOARD or have even questioned the plausibility of the EWPC-AF paradigm shift scenario. A summary of some of my actions can be seen as a comment under Steve Cherry’s IEEE Spectrum podcast Planning the Smart Grid—Today.

Tomorrow it will be a whole week after the Game ended. While I understand that time is of the essence, no response has been given to me so far. In the very likely case of having won, in order to have any opportunity to exert my bragging rights, I feel that I have been pushed to take the risk of posting the next story as one respectful attempt to ask for transparency.

At the time of Game’s closing, the EWPC-AF_Creator had gained sufficient momentum to climb to third place on the Leaderboard, on the 18th of March, after having already received the day before two awards from the Foresight guides. However, it seems that, the players in first and second position had not been given any award.

In fact, early on, the EWPC-AF_Creator was given by the Foresight guides a Heisenberg award, as the player that had the biggest impact on the conversation. Later on, he was given a Feyman award, for the Micro-forecast with the clearest sense of the small picture.

Having won as JoseAntonio one of the several Ted Talks awarded in the IEEE Spectrum sponsored Energy/H2O game last year, other forecasting achievements to be awarded by the Foresight guides that I was expecting to win were:

A Ted Talk award, on the EWPC-AF for the Micro-forecast most worthy of an 18-minute elaboration. As candidate for that award were at least the following three EWPC-AF interdependent Micro-forecast, that as suggested by IFTF sparked the most conversations with the Trilogy:

• The Positive Imagination "Consider a paradigm shift away from the current Investor Owned Utilities Architecture Framework (IOUs-AF) and its incremental extensions," that engaged for at least 60 ideas.
• The Dark Imagination Card "The main barrier is an energy policy that has led to a fragmented Smart Grid. Just like the reengineering movement, we need a clean slate," that engaged for at least 36 ideas.
• In response to the suggestion "If you could change any practice, law or custom what would it be?,” the Positive Imagination Card "The reductionist mental model of most executives, what W. Edwards Deming called the prevailing style of management" that was engaged for at least 32 ideas.

A Macarthur Genius award as a Micro-forecast most worthy of five-year funding.

A Hawkings award as a Micro-forecast with the clearest sense of the very big picture.

A Venter award as the Micro-forecast that makes the biggest paradigm shift.

And the MRF ARC™ award as the idea that offers the most holistic approach.

lunes, marzo 14, 2011

Please Play the Smart Grid Game on the Future of Electricity, Starting on Thursday March 17, 2011, at Noon

Dear leader,

I have good news for you about the emerging reality in the global electricity industry. To start getting in touch with it, please Listen to the podcast Planning the Smart Grid of 2025—Today. That is a very strong message that things can change for the better for customers and society as a whole, clearly only if we decide to participate.

As you will see, not only global issues, but also local issues are being asked for. I think that with at least 10 of us playing, we will show up in the game statistics, and even if we don’t make it, we will have a critical mass of representatives to tell our problems and see our opportunities reflected in what other countries representative will say while interacting with us. We should not miss this great and timely opportunity.

The future of electricity in the World has been organized as a game with the support of the IEEE Spectrum. In order to play, you, or someone you know, can register in http://smartgrid2025.org/ by hitting Create Player. We need to be represented with professionals and citizens that are future oriented.

The game starts with a scenario which can be seen after hitting Play Intro Video. I suggest starting and stopping the video and taking notes of what you like and what you dislike about the scenario. That is the key reference for the game.

The game starts on Thursday, March 17th, at noon. Please take a look at the introductory video, before playing time to get familiar with the initial scenario. The starting question of the process is What do we need to do today to create the best possible future for the smart grid?

The game runs for a whole day, however, you can spend just a few minutes or many hours of play, depending of your level of interest. If you know someone that might be interested in playing, just forward this message to him or her.

Playing is easy. One way is to hit “Prepare for the Game How to Win.” Another way that gets you to the same place is http://smartgrid2025.org/how_to_play , which also takes you to HOW TO WIN and QUICK CHALLENGES in the already mentioned webpage.

Please look also to “Get More Information - LEARN MORE,” that has the same content in the link "ABOUT" in the first line of the just mentioned webpage.

I understand that there is full confidentiality available for players by electing an appropriate username. If you need any additional information, please get in touch with me.

Best regards

José Antonio
--
José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, PhD. @ Linkedin
Systemic Consultant: Electricity.
Creator of the EWPC-AF
BS ´68, MS ´71 & PhD ´72, all from Cornell University.
IEEE Life Member since Jan 1st. 2011
javs@ieee.org
Follow on http://twitter.com/gmh_upsa
EWPC Blog
Grupo Millennium Hispaniola Blog
Research and practice areas, and interests: Electricity Without Price Controls Architecture Framework (EWPC-AF); Business models, Systems architecture; Systems thinking; Retail marketing; Customer orientation; Information systems requirements and design; Market rules; Contract assistance.