lunes, septiembre 15, 2014

Scotland’s independence got around the world before its interdependence got its pants on

Second update. Advice to the European Council and Global Debout for the transformation of the European Union. This is intended as a systems architecting advice above politics to the meeting in which Chancellor Angela Merkel will host Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi, European Council president Donald Tusk and French president Francois Hollande at a post-Brexit summit in Berlin on Monday (tomorrow) June 27 2016. In what follows we amplify what was added in the first update by taking in consideration text from three paragraph on the timely New York Times article Tony Blair: Brexit’s Stunning Coup, which says:
London — THE decision of British voters in Thursday’s referendum to leave the European Union will have vast consequences for Britain, for Europe and for the world. For a day, the British people were the government, and by 52 percent to 48 percent, they took the decision to go.

The lasting effect, however, may be political, and with global implications. If the economic shocks continue, then the British experiment will serve as a warning. But if they abate, then populist movements in other countries will gain momentum.

If the people — usually a repository of common sense and practicality — do something that appears neither sensible nor practical, then it forces a period of long and hard reflection. My own politics is waking to this new political landscape. The same dangerous impulses are visible, too, in American politics, but the challenges of globalization cannot be met by isolationism or shutting borders.
Starting on the last paragragh, lucky for the UK, the European Union and the people of the world, this blog has concentrated its effort in such a “period of long and hard reflection,” that the ex-prime minister Blair described in his article. The result is not based just on a reflective dialogue under the primacy of the parts, but on a generative dialogue that has helped emerge under the primacy of the whole what we have been calling the systemic civilizacion.

In the first paragraph Mr. Blair highlights the “vast consequences for Britain, for Europe and for the world,” which shows very clearly that the representative democracy of the industrial civilization has a Theory of the Business, described by Peter Drucker back in 1994, who said that "The assumptions on which the organization has been built and is being run no longer fit reality." Given that finding, Why should the European Council wait for the “lasting effects… with global implications,” that is mentioned in his second paragraph. 

We understand that the remainder of Mr. Blair’s opinion is based on the old common sense of the Theory of the Business of the industrial civilization which needs to be changed by the European Council as soon as possible to reduce the big undertainty. They can do that by developing a Global Declaration of Interdependence.

If done right away, such a declaration can start to fill the global leadership vacuum, which might help dissolve the Brexit referendum in the British parliament in order to start a whole European Union referendum if required as the new Theory of the Business is introduced. For starters, this is the December 2014 post A Systemic Civilization Global Declaration of Interdependence, and its:
First update of February 2, 2015.

Second update: 5 min. video. Is systemic corruption a problem of civil obedience?

Third update: How much does Greece matter to the 99.9%?

Fourth update: What about a high leverage European referendum that avoids the Greece's crisis go to waste?

Fifth update: Will the Eurozone continue in its Doom Loop unless the Troika is killed?

Sixth update.  A Systemic Declaration of Interdependence model for COP21.
Correction on the first update. It is not 15, but 21 month earlier on the main text of this post.

First update. Brexit independence got around the world before Global Debout interdependence got its pants on. This optimistic reframing of Brexit is based on Sir Winston Churchill's quote on the initial text, where it was also anticipated on September 2014 that:



Anne Applebaum ‏( @anneapplebaum ) had said that “Europe as we know it might be coming to an end.” This is what I found in one of her tweets: “Breakup of UK and President Marine le Pen of France both possible, according to today's news. Europe as we know it may be coming to an end,” that got an oustanding 237 Retweets and 68 Favorite.
Now in the post Señal #Brexit por Xavier Sala-i Martín: fenómeno Global Debout de desencanto con los políticos (see a translation at the end of this post), the professor has come to a similar conclusion to the one Anne Applebaum did 15 month earlier:
Xavier. Today everyone thinks that Trump is not possible. But Trump is part of the same phenomenon, which is a global phenomenon of disenchantment with the way the politicians who are carrying out the policy. Watch out!
Both conclusions do not considered what was suggested two days later in the post Why the Eurozone leaders must change their common sense first, which now has three updates, and starts with the following quotes, which disregard the excesive importance of central banks and short run financial capital under Keynes, and suggests the need for institutional innovations that enables long run production capital all over the world under Schumpeter.
“…the central problem of economics is not equilibrium but structural change. This then led to Schumpeter’s famous theorem of the innovator as the true subject of economics.”  
“Economics, for Keynes, was the equilibrium economics of Ricardo’s 1810 theories, which dominated the 19th century. This economics deals with a closed system and a static one. Keynes’ key question was the same question the 19th-century economists had asked: ‘How can one maintain an economy in balance and stasis?’” 
“…it is becoming increasingly clear that it is Schumpeter who will shape the thinking and inform the questions on economic theory and economic policy for the rest of this century, if not for the next 30 or 50 years.’’  
Peter F. Drucker, “Schumpeter And Keynes,” May 1983.
Since September 2014, a lot has been learned about the emergent future that has not been able to get its pants on the "free press." Next is just one posts available for both Global Debout and spacially for the monday 27 of June 2016 meeting, organized in Berlin, by German Chancellor, Angela Merker, with the President of France, Francois Holland, the Premier of Italy, Mateo Renzi, and the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, which is Can 51 European business leaders of @ert_eu help fill the global leadership vacuum? That post has so far the following:
First update. A challenge to #EU on their global leadership vacuum: they are the most responsible if #Brexit occurs.

Second update. Please help Donald Tust become the first global statesman with Brexit and Cataluña interdependence.

Third update. A proposal Brexit 23J and Spanish 26J voters are not expecting from EUCouncil but will love.

Fourth update. Reframing Brexit 23J and Spain 26J to reverse inmigration by EUCouncil global leadership wisdom.

Fifth update. Should EUCouncil help Brexit 23J and Spain 26J with framework change available to Dominican Republic?

Sixth update. To The Economist: Should Brexit’s vote matter with a Europe Union highly unfit Theory of the Business? 
Next is the above mentioned translation: #Brexit Signal by Xavier Sala-i-Martin: Global Debout phenomenon of disenchantment with politicians

I've always wondered: Is CNN in Spanish achieving the widest possible diversity of opinions in their programs? In this case I understand that they have succeeded in opening the door to the Global Debout. That’s the reason of this attempt to cure the interview that Gabriela Frias did to Professor Xavier Sala-i-Martin in the Global Portfolio CNN program: Reasons & Effects of British Consultation - June 24, 2016. It would be interesting to receive comments. If there is some divergence between the video and the text, please post a comment. In both cases it may be in this blog or via Twitter.

… see tweets in the original

Gabriela Frías. Well the outcome of the referendum. How does it see it professor, economist, Xavier Sala-i-Martin who accompanies me from Spain and to whom I appreciate it very much in an afternoon here and a night like there to tell me who loses here and who loses more with what’s happening professor?

Xavier Sala-i-Martin Hello! Good afternoon. Let's see. I think whoever loses more is Europe. I think the UK more or less will survive. They will find a different way to say keep them inside. They can trade; do movements of goods, insurance, capital and perhaps workers. Who it is going to lose is Europe. And it will go losing for several reasons. First because ... let's say the UK was the most liberal country. The most pro-market country. And in the constant struggles between European leaders over more interventionist left, the liberal side was always kept by the UK. And let's say as the UK leave the boat of Europe I think the others will be left with some extremely interventionist leaders and thus a Europe that is already too regulated, because it will end with much more regulation. That I think is the main problem as they go out.

Another problem that also will face soon, in fact they have already faced it today is that once the door opens we don’t know who's going out. The French with Le Pen have already said they want to leave; the Dutch have already said that they want to leave; and so gradually many countries will want to leave. And therefore here in Europe they will face a very important decision. Especially leaders will have to decide whether to punish the UK and we will give nothing, say as a warning so no one else can go or radically reformed everything that is Europe so people want to stay. I think that decision will mark the future of Europe and I am not very optimistic of what will end up happening.

Gabriela. Unfortunately I mean that as a journalist following this story. A story that begins with the US real estate crisis, becomes a recession, then touches Spain, etc., I have to say that I do not see evidence to be more optimistic. And I wonder what you or I mention it because it comes ... this is the prologue of the general election in Spain. It is the second in 6 months; they failed in a first attempt to make a pact to achieve that governance. So, professor what about Scotland, Ireland what about, what about even with Catalonia?

Xavier. I think one of the problems that will have in the UK, will not be a business problem, but if you have a problem that those who voted, states, countries within the UK that voted different from others, particularly in Scotland and Ireland they will ask for a new referendum because mostly they voted because they were told that this way they would remain in Europe. Now that they go out of Europe they will ask for a new referendum and it is unclear that remain will win again. Obviously the same, once the new referendum opens in Scotland, it will appear, will be stronger the movement in Catalonia, therefore all these movements revive.

But ... I think it's very important to see the enlarged picture. The photo from afar. I believe all this, the English, the English above all, I say non British English, the English complain in a way that is very real. And we are living in an office democracy. If your questions today in Europe to journalists educated people to people who have to know who Donald Tusk is; who is Jean Claude Junker; and ask not just who they are?, but to which parties they belong?, how are they chosen?, what do they do? Donald Tusk is the president of the Council of Europe; Jean Claude Junker is the president of the Commission. Nobody knows who they are. No one knows who has chosen them. ... If they are on the right or the left ... what do they want? And this is a major problem. Democracy is becoming a democracy of the office and not a democracy of the people. And it is something that in Europe is watching. And today is the first warning (warning) that something strange is happening. We are having signs around the world populists who are increasingly taking more force. So has won populism in Peru, Nicaragua, they won in Greece, and the next piece domino; Domino thereof; the same problem is called Donald Trump. So today we saw. Today we have discovered an important thing is that Donald Trump is possible.

For days no one thought Brexit was possible. Today it has been possible.

Gabriela. (Interrupting) Wow!

Xavier. Today everyone thinks that Trump is not possible. But Trump is part of the same phenomenon, which is a global phenomenon of disenchantment with the way the politicians who are carrying out the policy. Watch out!

Gabriela. Watch out! To close 30 seconds ... 45 seconds. David Cameron some say is the big loser; the other the great statesman who steps aside to say this was voted, I'm not the captain to take them to that port ... what about Xavier Martin?

Xavier. I agree with the second option. He is a great democrat. A man that when there was a referendum in Scotland said: "I want the UK to remain united, but above British I am a Democrat, so we have to give the voice to the people." Today there are two types of politicians: one who truly believes in democracy and others that don’t. Today we have seen it everywhere: see this is what happens when you let the people speak; the people are silly, only the leaders are able to decide. Well, Cameron is in the first group and Democrats really have to congratulate you, not only for departing today, but for convening the referendum.

Gabriela. What a pleasure to greet you and have that you contribute your ideas. Professor Xavier was on vacation and he allowed this pause. Thank you!

Xavier. Thanks to you.

Scotland’s independence got around the world before its interdependence got its pants on

 “A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on” – Sir Winston Churchill

Listening yesterday to the program, Global Public Square, of Fareed Zakaria( @FareedZakaria ), I heard him say that Anne Applebaum ‏( @anneapplebaum ) had said that “Europe as we know it might be coming to an end.” This is what I found in one of her tweets: “Breakup of UK and President Marine le Pen of France both possible, according to today's news. Europe as we know it may be coming to an end,” that got an oustanding 237 Retweets and 68 Favorite.

 I guess that Churchill was right on, for example, because my ( @gmh_upsa) tweet in reply to hers: “What about @anneapplebaum UK interdependence? See the arguments in Spanish under http://thespeedynews.blogspot.com/2014/09/Spain-Catalunya-independencia.html … … #scottishindependence #EuropeIN,“ only got so far only 2 Retweets and no Favorite.

 Guessing that the popularity of the select few re-tweeters that have been following the recent movement to EcoSiNuestra (EcoIsOurs, not a literal translation in opposition to EcoNoMy) and the argument in Spanish don’t help yet that much to learn the truth, I have made the following translation about what I responded this morning under the news Qué está en juego en el referendo por la independencia de Escocia (What's at stake in the referendum on Scottish independence).

 It's interesting to see that is a very wise question to ask, no to organize a debate, as it's been done by learning about the past, but to induce a generative dialogue, to be able to get closer to the truth about the emerging future, which is what I have been trying to do for quite some time. Using the Peircian (after the great US philosopher Charles Sanders Peirce) non-Cartesian scientific (systemic) research method to approximate the truth, with an action oriented scientific attitude, next is what the comment says:
To know what's at stake, we must understand that it’s been a while that the world of independent countries not longer makes any sense. The struggle for independence is what led to the change of the agricultural civilization to the industrial civilization. Yesterday, Adrián Calvo invited me to comment with a tweet to his article España y Catalunya: construyamos juntos un nuevo país, which I translate as "Spain and Catalunya: let’s build a new country together.” To interest you to read the article and my comments, in the following I repeat, for example, what I said about that referendum:
Expanding my response to Luis Siñol, I first step to comment on the excellent article Ante todo, democracia (First of all, democracy), of your partner Víctor Riverola, [written] from the point of view of the Cartesian method. That article generates a huge space for generative dialogue that can be used to develop a "White paper" for the interdependence of the Eurozone. 
With their independence, Scotland and Catalunya could be richer, for a while, in an increasingly poor world that goes right to Second Middle Ages. A contradiction can be seen in the strong love that his "grandfather had for equality," that I nuance as equal opportunities. 
Victor quotes that "the majority of Scots do not want to go back," but that would be exactly what they will do by increasing the risk of disintegration of the Eurozone, to promote an "every man for himself" strategy, that would give a bad example to other with unitary countries problems, such as Spain, Italy, Belgium and why not, for example, Canada, with Quebec. That would make the highly saturated markets in developed countries become even more saturated. 
Elaborating on such contradictions, that suggests two very dangerous cards to play in a highly interdependent world, "Taxation and the North Sea oil," for Scotland to continue to be governed by the money of savage capitalism, I argument that Scotland would live much better if it become interdependent, emphasizing its tourism, its mountain sports, its film industry, its distilleries and the Scotland brand, with the arrival of new EcoSiNuestra markets [where wisdom would govern], that people living at the Bottom of the Pyramid are not expecting, but you will love.

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